Handicapper's Corner: Zenyatta Stakes (G1)

 Fillies Ready, Willing and Able in Zenyatta Stakes

By: Laurie Ross, Pedigree Power

Racing fans are treated to a number of graded stakes during the opening weekend of Santa Anita’s fall racing meet. Among them is the Zenyatta Stakes, named for the superstar mare whose spent her racing career beating up on other fillies and colts in California. The race was previously named in honor of champion Lady’s Secret. 

Zenyatta captured the 1 1/16 mile event a record three times. Four years later, the great Beholder equaled the feat but was blanked from a fourth victory by her nemesis, Stellar Wind, who won by a neck in an exciting duel.  

This year, six fillies and mares will vie for the $300,000 purse and an entry into the Breeders’ Cup Distaff.  Let’s take a look at the field. Morning line odds weren’t available at the time of publication.

Bob Baffert sends out the 2017 Champion Three Year Old Filly, ABEL TASMAN. This year, the champ has captured two of three starts, the Ogden Phipps and Personal Ensign Stakes back east.  The chink in Abel Tasman’s armor is her 3-1-2-0 record at Santa Anita. She won her maiden at the track but placed second in the Santa Ysabel and Santa Anita Oaks before capturing the Kentucky Oaks. Baffert has kept the daughter of Quality Road competing on the east coast for much of her career.

  

Baffert’s other contestant is VALE DORI (ARG), who placed third in the Zenyatta in 2016. The six-year-old mare appears to have lost a step this year, as she hasn’t won in four tries, even against softer company. Val Dori will go to the post in a set of shiny new blinkers to regain her competitive focus. She’s likely entered to take the early heat off Abel Tasman.

LA FORCE (GER) could be Abel Tasman’s main competition. Despite her turf breeding, the German-bred filly has found her calling on the dirt. She’s captured only one race this year, an optional claimer over this course at the beginning of the year, but the Paddy Gallagher trainee recorded a couple of second place finishes in the Beholder Mile and Clement L. Hirsch behind Unique Bella.

In her most recent outing, SHENANDOAH QUEEN trampled Val Dori in the restricted Tranquility Lake Stakes by over eight imposing lengths.  The John Sadler trainee is a cut below Abel Tasman and La Force, but she draws the rail and the services of Tyler Baze, whose strength is riding early pace types. Note that the only times that Shenandoah Queen has hit the board was when was on the lead.

The two fillies bringing up the rear, are LEMOONA and FOOL'S PARADISE. Lemoona owns maiden and optional claiming victories. She was last seen finishing a distant 8 3/4 lengths behind the winner in the Grade 3 Torrey Pines.

Fools Paradise also owns two wins, a maiden, and optional claiming race. She was beaten a combined 24 lengths in her last two starts, a pair of Grade 2 races.

SELECTIONS

This should be easy pickings for ABEL TASMAN, but upsets happen.

SHENANDOAH QUEEN may take the early lead, with VALE DORI sent to soften her up. ABEL TASMAN may be reserved behind the pair, perhaps hanging out with LA FORCE. Look for Abel Tasman and La Force to make their move around the turn. 

#2 ABEL TASMAN

#3 LA FORCE

#1 SHENANDOAH QUEEN

HANDIGAMBLING

It’s tough to see beyond last year’s 3YO champ winning this, but that’s why we have horse racing. If Vale Dori decides to cave early and leave Shenandoah Queen on the lead, that filly could get brave, and vice versa. In another scenario, Abel Tasman may be forced to chase a swift early pace and be overtaken by La Force.

Watch the odds as they near the gate. The most likely to finish in the top three are the ones mentioned above. Vale Dori may feel renewed with blinkers, and if she has double-digit odds, toss her into the play.  

If you plan to play, do a $10 trifecta or superfecta bet, your return will be much higher than the penny pinching $2 or $4 play.  

 

Handicapper's Corner: Vosburgh Stakes (G1)

A Hint of Speed in the Vosburgh Stakes

By: The Turk

 

Imperial Hint- Photo Breeders' Cup website/Gulfstream Park

Welcome friends to The Turk and the Little Turk Blog, which just days ago celebrated 10 years of handicapping and bet construction. 

I'd like to thank the good people of The Thorofan and The Thorofan Handicappers Corner for allowing me the opportunity to share my thoughts  with their readers.





 Today's effort is The Vosburgh, a 6f Grade 1 on the dirt at Belmont Park. Pictured is Imperial Hint. 

Readers of The Turk know I have a general disdain for morning lines and I usually avoid most racing news articles in advance of handicapping.  Why?  I find that sort of information can bias my thoughts and I try to avoid preconceived notions and confirmation bias.  I print my past performances without the Morning Lines, I build my Fair Line Odds and only then do I look at the Morning Lines. 

I had a feeling when I looked at the past performances that Imperial Hint would be a big Morning Line, and 1-5 didn't really surprise me.  Not only is the 5 YO son of Imperialism a truly dominant sprinter, this field is pretty unspectacular.  the remaining six horses in this field, in their last two races each or over 12 races we have:

• 1 Graded Stake:  Mr Crow who also raced (4th - 8 1/4 back) in the Vanderbilt G1 with Imperial Hint.
• 4 Claiming Races $32-$50
• 3 Optional Claimers$35-$80K
• 1 $25K Allowance
• 3 $97 Stakes

Imperial Hint has $1.2 MM in career earnings and the rest of the field $1.4 MM.
 

While I have no preconceived notion of the handicap, I do have an early idea of my bet construction plan when I see this sort of pattern forming with a heavy chalk and an unheralded field.  I'm thinking low risk exactas with Imperial Hint on top and two or three of the longest prices entering the gate in Place for now more than $6 bucks or so OR 3 or 4 of the mid sized prices over Imperial Hint for no more that $8 bucks.  

Let's get after this!

Let's start with the whale, Imperial Hint.

Vanderbilt G1: 6f on good dirt.  A complete handride by Castellano.  Dominance.  

The True North G2: 6 1/2 f on Fast Dirt.  

Imperial Hint is training exceptionally well;  six straight bullet workouts with lots of company(19,10,26,18,61,43).  8 of last ten races 100+ Beyer.  7 Wins in 10 starts at the distance.  Only finish out of the money in 2018 was on the slop at Churchill Downs on Kentucky Derby Day.

The Churchill Downs Grade 2: 7f on sealed slop.

   

Silver Ride has always been a bit of a tease but its hard to believe, the gelded son of Candy Ride (Arg) is 6 YO.  9 of 16 Lifetime in the money over fast dirt with 429 Tomlinson on Wet Dirt and 408 Tomlinson at the distance but only 1 win in 7 tries at 6f.  Adding 4 pounds from last effort,  

The Tale of the Cat $97K at Saratoga at 6f on fast dirt.

 Paceless, 5 horse field that included Mr. Crow in his last off effort. Trainer Lynch is a 23% Grade Stakes winner and a 7% winner only at Belmont over current meet.  He is a 33% winner at Belmont coupled with J. Ortiz, up. Eh.  

Still Krz comes in off a $32,000 claimer.  He's been claimed three times in past year.  6 YO gelding has 6 wins in 20 starts at the distance and 11 Win-Place efforts in 19 Fast Dirt Starts.  Ontario bred. Big Timeform early pace fig of 129.  Will/can he carry?  

Mr. Crow finished 13 1/2 lengths up the track back of the winner in last years edition of this race.  Since that effort, he was claimed for $62K and has one win in last five efforts.  His running lines:  "...last away...weakened....bobbled...no match..."  Adds 4 pounds from Tale of the Cat.  Last two races J. Ortiz was up but he jumps to Silver Ride, and Saez, who's piloted Silver Ride's last two races is up on Mr. Crow for Conditioner Ben Colebrook.

Forge and Manical should be rolling early and I suspect Imperial Hint will set up off their flanks pressing their pace.  Forge is 0 of 3 starts at Belmont but 6 of 7 in the money at the distance and 7 of 11 in the money on fast dirt.  Manical goes for Wesley Ward with J. Velazquez up.  6 of 8 in the money in 2018 for a Kitten's Joy who has started 7 of 16 times on grass.

For my purposes, I'd tossing Sightforsoreeyes at my own peril.

So what to do with this?  My mind hasn't really changed.  This is the sort of race I'll be paying attention to the Will Pay ticker as the post parade nears the gate.  I'll be looking for the value bets with Imperial Hint in the Win spot as well as the Place Spot.  I'm not interested in investing $2 dollars to make $3.  I am willing to invest $10 for a chance to make $50.  Is he unbeatable?  No.

Have fun with it friends,  Turk Out!

Handicapper's Corner: Pennsylvania Derby (G1)

Speed, Pace and Possibilities in Pennsylvania Derby

By: John Caro, S. FL. ThoroFan Member

Weather is forecast to be ideal for this contest for three year olds going one and an eighth. And the field is an experienced lot who have been involved in triple-crown races, mid-summer derbies and state derbies across the land. Frankly there is a lot of class in this race. I propose that a close look at the contenders reveals some good value in this race from a pure betting standpoint. Lots of speed, lots of pace, lots of possibilities.

#1 – First Mondays – (Servis/Pennington) – This Curlin baby was recently third in the Smarty Jones G3 over this track beaten four lengths by Axelrod going shorter. Pennington is a top jockey at PARX and Servis is firing on all cylinders, 28% here and what a great time he had at Saratoga. Did not race as a two year old and although he has a good record in his three starts he’s not in my focus.

#2 – Hofburg – (Mott/Ortiz, Jr. I) – Winner of the Curlin S. in late July in the slop against a small field. Adds blinkers and a look through the running lines at his ITM finishes/wins have come when he’s somewhere back early and accelerates around the field 3 to 5 wide. Although his odds are low (and likely lower given Ortiz’s numbers) his stalwart efforts in the Belmont and Florida Derby and his recent win testify to his ability to contend for the win. 

#3 – Instilled Regard – (Brown/Ortiz, JL) – Last out was in the Kentucky Derby finishing fourth from way back and was held up in traffic in the stretch but managed to get to within 2 of Good Magic and 4 from Justify. Trainer change to Brown was made after the derby and Brown has had him out for some sneaky good 5f works since. Brown’s stats speak volumes to his ability to bring an animal back into the money and I believe we have a viable longshot to consider in any exotic. Win contender? Unlikely but hey, the sibling rivalry continues.

#4 – King Zachary – (Romans/Lanerie) – Was forth in the Travers by a 6 length margin having started last but closed though the stretch. His best efforts have been when he's mid-pack or better. Will they send him closer to the lead and track his stable mate, Mr. Freeze? Could be a Roman’s plan and Lanerie is every bit capable of doing that. Bris power rating has him 3^rd which I find very interesting for a 20-1 ML entry. He's another longshot play in exotics.

#5 – Core Beliefs – (Eurton/Talamo) - Never out of the money until his last race when well back to finish forth in the Travers with a bobbled start. But he has had a fine record getting here and won the Ohio Derby with Talamo up in a driving finish over Lone Sailor. He has been taking a break for about 55 days with what appears to be the same work tab (with 6f works) prior to his second in the Peter Pan after a stumbled start while tracking a good pace. His record of trouble in three of his starts is a concern but, if he gets off well he may have something to say about the pace and the outcome. He run against this year's best and rated well with others in this field. Great value exotics player.

#6 – Axelrod – (McCarthy/Bravo) – Great speed improvement since May. Won the Indiana Derby coming off the pace and his recent win in the Smarty Jones here from mid-pack (and Bravo up) shows his versatility. Works are good and speed improvement is expected to continue. He may be a win contender here at a fair value and may well be overlooked because of others.

#7 – Mr. Freeze – (Romans/Albarado) – Won the WV Derby in his last out and watching the video says a lot about his hutzpah going eye to eye with his previous vival, High North, in the Iowa Derby and Albarado’s determination and brief encouragement down the stretch. Highest last speed and can take a challenge. The breeding suits and the works are better than previous workouts. Great record. I like this one for a value win. 

#8 - McKenzie – (Baffert/Smith) – What can I say about a colt who was #2 in Baffert’s barn last fall, wins three of four (technically 4 for 4 via DQ) and Big Money up for the ride? His work tab is steady with longer runs since August, but this is Baffert’s way. The value is awful but can't leave him off the ticket. Winner? Not wishing bad things though I’d like to see better value on top.

#9 – Trigger Warning – (Rone/Rosendo) – Last out was a big class test that failed in the Travers. The two prior races in the Ohio and Indiana Derbies were pretty handy. He will likely be a pace factor early if he gets out but I don’t see him in the closing stages of the race. Gets a weight break and goes without googles for this one. Bottom of a Super, maybe.

#10 – Bravazo – (Lukas/Saez) – The only guy who has run all the big Grade I’s this year and Likes second or third a lot. His best was the Preakness. Long hard campaign and I admire his efforts but, I think it is taking its toll. I like him as part of any ticket as he does run on but I suggest he is worn down, not worn out. Worn down after winning $1.1. He has to be included in the exotics but I don’t see our Calumet ‘Farm Boy’ winning.

As I said earlier, there are some contenders in this one that have the experience and ability to make this a very competitive race. If I’m going to wager I’m going to do so with the mindset that says “I need value in my picks and hope they can hook up with other value horses.

Handi-gambling Menu – boy I like that phrase and whoever came up with it has nailed what it really is. Thanks. I hate to take away from your ability to decide who is best for you so the menu is provided to offer some choices.

But I Love a good exacta always:

$2 Exacta Key - All with 3, 4, 7 - $54        

Note: You could leave the 1 & 9 off the top of the above exacta: cost $42 and then play a second exacta as well.

$1 Exacta Key – 7 with All     cost: $9

Total using both Exactas is $51

Win ‘Dutch’ Bets: $16 Win on the #7 with $13 Win on the 3 & 4   cost: $42 - at current odds the payout is about $170

Total cost for all the above is $96 if you play the 1^st Exacta and the win bets and $93 if you play the 2^nd two Exactas and the win bets.

_________________________________________________________________________

Trifecta betting: If this is the way you like to bet then wheel your best pick into a trifecta after eliminating a couple of runners and stack some longshots in your play. 

Mine best value pick is the #7 so is the example below. I would play the #7 as above and below ALL in my Exacta for $18. In the Trifecta I put him in all three money positions (as you would in WPS bets) and carry over the other longshots (value plays) in the last tri key. Value horses are in Bold. ML favorites in Green.

Example:

$1 Tri Key - 7 with 2 3 6 with 2 3 4 5 6 8 10 - $18

$1.50 Tri Key - 2 3 6 with 7 with 2 3 4 5 6 8 10 - $27

$.50 Tri Key 2 3 6 8 10 with 2 3 4 5 6 8 10 with 3 4 7 - $37.50 

Total cost for the above Tri Key bets and the Exactas 7 with ALL & ALL with 7 is $100.50

 

Handicapper's Corner: Northern Dancer Turf Stakes (G1)

Northern Dancer Turf Stakes a Bear of a Race

By: Robert Marks, They're in the Gate

The Northern Dancer Turf Stakes is a Saturday 9/15/18 held at Woodbine racetrack in Toronto, Ontario. A Grade I event with a current purse of $300,000, it is run at a distance of  1 1⁄2 miles on Woodbine's E. P. Taylor turf course. We have a large field of 10 horses for your betting pleasure. 

Hawkbill — He ran this race last year finishing 2nd-this horse sired by Kitten’s Joy, he comes across the big pond looking pretty impressive with a lot of black type races and 2 wins at this distance at Dubai earlier in the year. He likes to run in the front and then see if anyone catches him. Our rule is not too bet a short odds horse in a short field so we will try to hit the trifecta looking for 2 horses with value to bet with Hawkbill.

Johnny Bear — This 7-year-old gelding has won here three times including this race in 2017. Problem is that was his last win. But we do always like a horse and jockey-Luis Contreras- that knows the turf course and the distance. Hoping he floats up a bit from his 8-1 morning line odds to 10-1 or higher. 

Tiz a Slam — This 4-year-old has a win over this track at the distance and 3 wins overall here out of 5 starts. Judging by recent form his last 2 race speed figures will be enough to place. We also like the valve over other shorter odds horses in the field. He is at 6-1 morning line odds.  Watch the odds board, if he stays around 6-1 jump on those odds.

Wagering/Betting Handigambling Bankroll: Here is our $100 worth of betting for the race

Exacta Box: $10 Exacta Box ($20)

4,5

Trifecta ($10 Box for $60 Total)

4,5,6

Win Bet-$20

4

As always, watch the Board and if at the track watch how the horses look in the Paddock and adjust your bets accordingly. Good Luck!

 

Handicapper's Corner: Woodbine Mile (G1)

Woodbine Mile - All That Glitters is Green

By: Nick Costa, Trackside with Trackman

Our Thoro-Fan blog this weekend takes us north of the border. Woodbine Race Track in Toronto, Ontario, is squarely in the spotlight on Saturday with the Grade 1, $800,000 Breeders Cup ‘Win and You’re In’ Woodbine Mile, the featured race on a card packed with four lucrative stakes.

The Woodbine Mile has an illustrious winner's list that includes two-time Horse of the Year Wise Dan (2012, 2013), sensational filly Tepin (2016) and World Approval who used this race last year as a springboard to a Breeders’ Cup Mile Championship.  Other notable winners include Court Vision (2010) who pulled off a stunning upset in that year’s Breeders’ Cup Mile,and 2016 Arlington Million winner, Mondialiste, who captured the Woodbine Mile in 2015.

The race is open to 3-year-olds and up traveling eight furlongs over the E.P. Taylor turf course and the field of nine horses, including a filly, represent some of the finest grass runners in North America and Europe.

This contentious grass contest goes as race 8 on the 12-race card with post time slated for 4:48 p.m. ET. 

 Here's how field looks from the rail out.

1 - Good Samaritan – Joel Rosario/Bill Mott – Following consecutive off-the-board finishes in New York on conventional dirt, where he is a multiple Grade 2 winner and Grade 1 stakes placed, this colt gets back to the grass where he began his career and was very successful, including rallying from last place to win the Summer Stakes (G2) over this surface and distance in 2016. Trainer Bill Mott won the inaugural edition of this event in 1997. 


2 - La Sardane – Rafael Bejarano/Neil Drysdale – Filly will take on the boys for the second consecutive race after contesting last month’s Play the King stakes over soft ground that she obviously detested, finishing fifth after setting the pace. With a Group 2 win in France and a Grade 3 win in the States, she now looks to add a Grade 1 title to her resume and become the third female to capture this race. Trainer Drysdale is a three-time Woodbine Mile winner.
 
3 - Delta Prince – Javier Castellano/James Jerkens – Five-year old horse has never been off the board in nine career starts and always flashes his natural liking for the turf wherever he shows up to race. Enjoyed a fine moment of his career this June, winning the King Edward (G2) over this very course and distance following nearly a ten-month layoff. Top notch grass performer then came back with a gritty and hard-fought near miss performance in the Fourstardave (G1) at Saratoga over a turf course labeled good.

4 - Vanish - Ademar Santos/Vito Armata - Local Woodbine runner was claimed two back for $40k out of a winning optional claiming effort racing one-mile over this course. He then rewarded his new owners with a second-place finish in the August 25^th Play the King (G2) across seven furlongs of yielding turf. Broke his maiden on Woodbine’s synthetic track in the Claredon Stakes in his second start as a juvenile, so the talent was there early. Is being given a tall order in this spot, but this is home and he does like this grass surface.

5 - Mr Havercamp – Eurico da Silva/Catherine Day Phillips - This Ontario-bred runner is 6 for 9 lifetime and is a local fan favorite, as well as a multiple stakes winner, including an impressive victory here in the August 25^th Play the King over yielding ground. He will try to keep his perfect 4 for 4 record over this turf course intact as he seeks Grade 1 glory. His sire (Court Vision) won this edition in 2010.
 

6 - - Lord Glitters – Jamie Spencer/David O’Meara - Consistent runner who’s been in good form all year, comes across the Atlantic after contesting a pair of Group 1’s, which included a runner-up showing in the Queen Anne at Ascot in June, and a Group 2 event at the same venue, before finding the winner’s circle in his latest at York in a Group 3 event.  He owns a 6-8-1 record from 17 starts and possesses a dangerous turn of foot.

7 - Oscar Performance – Jose Ortiz/Brian Lynch – As the betting favorite in the Arlington Million (G1) last time out, the three-time Grade 1 stakes winner was pulled up and vanned off. It was reported he took a bad step. Following the race, he was given a complete examination and found to be in good health. He has been working regularly in the mornings for this engagement. He was a sharp looking winner of the Poker Stakes (G3) in his 2018 debut off a seven-month layoff and is unbeaten in two starts at the one-mile distance.

8 - Divisidero – Jevian Toledo/Kelly Rubley – Multiple Grade 1 winner began the year in a new barn with trainer Rubley calling the shots, and she hopes her charge can make his Canadian debut here a winning one. The colt has carried good form since returning to the races in 2018 and turned in a tremendous effort two back, rallying impressively to take top honors in the Grade 3 Arlington Handicap. Last time out, he was two lengths behind runner-up Delta Prince in the Fourstardave (G1).

9 - Stormy Antarctic– Gerard Mosse/Ed Walker – Well traveled, ultra- consistent foreign horse brings solid form to the race. He’s competed against strong company in Europe where he’s a Group 2 and 3 winner and has been second three times in Group 1 events. He can run on the lead or come from off the pace, so he’s versatile. He likes some give in the ground, however, the expected firm ground won’t hinder his chances at this top level. 



Summary:

The contest appears wide open, but I’ve settled on the European Lord Glitters who looms very menacing in this spot.

Lord Glitters has landed in the exacta in 14 of his 17 careers starts and his most impressive outing was in defeat when a solid runner-up in the Queen Anne at Ascot. Trainer O’Meara has taken the same route with this grey gelding as he did with Mondaliste who won this race in 2015, so he knows how to accomplish the mission. The French-bred, English based Lord Glitters has performed extraordinary while keeping world class company in Europe. He is in great form, adds Lasix and should really enjoy the long stretch of this course.

Delta Prince was very sharp winning the King Edward after 10-months away. Then at Saratoga, he caught softer turf than he prefers, but fought on tenaciously for second. This is his third start off the layoff, so he should be in peak form on a turf course expected to be firm, which is more to his liking. 

Oscar Performance had a rough day in his last start at Arlington, but the fact he is back this soon after being vanned off, indicates all is well the three-time Grade 1 winner. If he’s at his best, he certainly can win this.

Play: With $100 Thoro-Fan dollars, I will bet $20 to win on Lord Glitters and play him in a $5 exacta box with Delta Prince. Both horses in $5 straight exactas over Oscar Performance. Play all three in a $10 trifecta box. 

Good luck and enjoy the race.  

Handicapper's Corner: Kentucky Turf Cup (G3)

Turf Routers Shine in Kentucky Turf Cup 

By: Nicolle Neulist, Blinkers-Off

The Kentucky Turf Cup gives a chance for older turf routers to shine.  It will be run for the 27th time this year, and has always covered a mile and a half on the grass.  The race offers a $400,000 purse, or $750,000 for Kentucky-bred horses.  (Only Some In Tieme, who was bred in Brazil, is ineligible for the higher purse).
 

The race drew an overflow field of sixteen, including last year's winner Oscar Nominated.  Between Oscar Nominated and 2015-2016 winner Da Big Hoss trainer Mike Maker has won the last three editions of the Kentucky Turf Cup, and empties the shedrow for this year's addition.  In addition to last year's champion Maker also conditions Bronson, Bigger Picture, and Soglio in the main field, and Markitoff two deep on the also-eligible list. 

The weather through the week calls for rain, suggesting that not only is affinity for Kentucky Downs a plus factor, but so is the ability to run over ground with some give.

Oscar Nominated won last year, and may prove tough to beat once again given his form and his tactical versatility.  He hails from the barn of consistent turf stayer trainer Mike Maker, and his own form at a mile and a half has been strong: in five starts at the distance, he has two wins and three second-place finishes.  One of those wins came in this race last year.  One of those second-place finishes came over soft ground; he ran second behind Bullard’s Alley’s freakish effort last year’s Canadian International, run over soft going.  His form over the Kentucky Downs oval is beyond reproach, as well; Oscar Nominated has started twice there, and has a Kentucky Turf Cup win and a Dueling Grounds Derby score to his name.  He will likely go off the favorite, but the race looks tailor-made for him.

Big Bend is unproven in a bog, but otherwise has a lot going for him.  He went gate-to-wire in last year’s Dueling Grounds Derby, and now returns to the site of that triumph.  There isn’t a whole lot of early gas in this race, making it possible that he could get that sort of trip again.  But?  Even though that was a frontrunning score, he does not have to be on the front end to succeed.  Big Bend proved that next out in the Sycamore (G3) at Keeneland, where he rallied from off the pace to win.  That race, in addition to an allowance victory last year, also proves he has twelve-furlong stamina.  The connections also bode well for Big Bend.  Tom Proctor is choosy and successful with his Kentucky Downs shippers.  And rider Drayden Van Dyke is both one of the hottest riders in the country, and adept at riding Kentucky Downs when he ships out there.  He also has rapport with Big Bend already; he rode the son of Union Rags in both the Dueling Grounds Derby and the Sycamore.

Patterson Cross needs a defection from the main field in order to draw in, but if he gets a single scratch in front of him, he can win.  Patterson Cross is a closer who matches well on speed with these foes, and reliably fires a smart closing rally.  He also has proven mile and a half stamina.  Though he has yet to win at the distance, he has frequently finished in the frame, including finishing third beaten only a neck by Sadler’s Joy in the Pan American (G2) last year.  Patterson Cross is fit; he actually cuts back from the thirteen-furlong John’s Call Stakes at the Spa last out, in which he finished beaten only a length after a tough trip late. He needs a bit of luck to draw in, but if he does, don’t let him sneak off the also-eligibles unnoticed.

Selections:

#6 Oscar Nominated (7/2)

#12 Big Bend (10/1)

#13 Patterson Cross (12/1)

Longshot:  Between the rain in the forecast and the generally good record of closers in route races at Kentucky Downs, #11 My Bariley (20/1) should have plenty of say down the lane.  Though he was off the board in his only start at Kentucky Downs, toss it with confidence: the race was his juvenile debut, and it was a sprint. Sprints over the course tend to favor speed, and beyond that, My Bariley is a proven late runner.  He also thrives in a bog; it rained all week leading up to his sharp late-running victory in the Hawthorne Derby last year.

Handicapper's Corner: Ladies Turf (G3)

Usual Handicapping Angle won't work in Ladies Turf

By: Jeff Cobb, S. FL. ThoroFan Member

Hello racing fans.  This week brings exciting racing from Kentucky Downs, and I’ll be reviewing the field for the Grade 3 Ladies Turf. The 8 furlong race is for fillies and mares 3 yrs and older.

Truth is, I don't know much about this track or meet except that course is a little eccentric and the meet is short.  Apparently, none of the fillies or mares know much about the course as no entry has raced more than once on the course and of those none has managed to finish in the money.  So much for the horse for course angle. Not that it really matters this time of the year, but no 3 year olds entered the race either.

The hot filly is #1 I'm Betty G winner of her last three.  Betty G is a front running type who figures to set the pace. Betty G is likely to be alone on the lead, if nobody goes with her she could very well wire the field at 7-2 ML odds. Betty G likes the distance, 4-2-1-1, and gets Tyler Gaffalione to guide her. Tyler has been a good bet when riding for Michael Maker with a + ROI in the last 60 days.

#2 Bonnie Arch 12-1 (Chris Landeros, Ian Wilkes) had the privilege of chasing Betty around the track last out flattening out at the end to finish 3^rd.  I don't like betting on horses to turn the tables when racing so close together. If Betty G is healthy then Bonnie Arch can't win in my opinion.

#3 Storm the Hill 4-1 (Julien Leparoux, Philip D'Amato) has a Grade 3 win under her belt. She will need a hot pace to catch Betty and I don't know who will push her. Storm the Hill probably manage to get a piece of the purse and could get there in time with the right pace factors.

#4 Oh So Terrible 15-1 (Carlos Villasana, Bradley Ross, is well, maybe not terrible but seems to be in over her head.

#5 Valladorna 8-1 (Florent Geroux, Mark Casse) is doing something she has never done before, run on grass. Valladorna is a Grade 3 winner at Keeneland, but can she transfer her dirt form to turf. There are many unknown factors, but here are some known facts. 1. Florent Geroux is a very good turf jockey 2. Mark Casse is a good trainer who knows what he's doing 3. Her dam Goldfield has a turf winner to her credit. Valladorna has a lot of gaps in her running line indicating she is a little prone to injury, another reason to try to catch her first of the layoff. I tend to think she will be a good bet here.

#6 Pas de Souci 8-1 (Flavien Prat, Jorge Abreu) has some early foot and could provide the pressure needed on Betty to make a race of it. Pas De Souci is another that has had trouble putting races together, and as I have learned from a noted handicapper that fact that she is running in a fourth race without a break is an indication of her current good health, and we should try to take advantage of that.

#7 Hallie Belle 8-1 (Joe Bravo, Michael Stidham) has shown some good recent form and this race may be a bit of a step down from what she has been up against recently. Generally, I don't like betting on Bravo when he's outside of New Jersey.  I think he makes his money on the shore and gets a little lazy at other tracks. But he rides well for Stidham winning 36% of time for the last 60 days.

#8 In the Lee 5-1 (Jose Ortiz, Claude Shug McGaughey) has a lot going for her winner in 4 of 8 tries and in the money 7 of 8. Ortiz has ridden her to victory twice, so it seems him and filly have a pretty good rapport. She like the distance. She has beaten Pas de Souci twice and finished 4^th behind Betty by a nose at Laurel almost a year ago.  I can forgive that. She's coming in after a little freshening and Shug can get them ready.  I don't think she'd be in here if she wasn't ready.

#9 Insta Erma 6-1 (Drayden Van Dyke, Richard Baltas) hasn't raced since Derby day and seems to have a history of bad health with trouble putting more than two races together. When she's healthy the mare is competitive. I think she must be ready to try again, and this the first race back for a mare that probably has some chronic issues. Also worth a shot.

#10 Dubara 15-1 (Adam Beschizza, Brendan Walsh) had a big speed figure last out in what will be 7 days ago at race time. Looks like a bounce candidate.

Selections:

This is a tight race and there are only two horses I can discount and I'm not sure about her. I have to go with #8 In the Lee for first and take shots in verticals in no particular order #5 Valladorna, #9 Insta Erma, and #3 Storm the Hill

#8 In the Lee

#5 Valladorna

#9 Insta Erma  

#3 Storm the Hill