The Honeymoon Stakes gives 3-year-old fillies the
opportunity to stretch their legs 1 1/8-miles over the Santa Anita Lawn.
The Grade 3 event attracted a well-matched field of nine. Red
Lark is the only filly in the group that has traveled nine furlongs, and she
won her maiden at the distance.
The Favorites
STELA STAR (IRE) (2-1) has hit the board in three of
five lifetime. She was last seen tearing down the stretch to just miss the
victory by a nose in the one-mile China Doll in her U.S. debut. The John Sadler
trainee owns the highest Brisnet late-pace speed figure in the field and is one
of five who have a one-run closing style.
LAURA’S LIGHT (5-2) is four for five lifetime, and
perfect over the Santa Anita lawn. She got the best of Croughavouke, Parkour, Guitty,
and Little Bird in the Blue Norther Stakes.By leading second-crop sire Constitution, Laura’s Light’s distaff line
is sprinter/miler oriented, although her dam’s half brother Summer Hit placed
third in the 2014 Oak Tree Handicap at nine furlongs. The Peter Miller trainee
likes to lead the pack but can sit off the pace.
PARKOUR (7-2) finished a close third in last year’s
Blue Norther Stakes. She won her 3-year-old debut in an allowance/optional
claimer, beating K P Dreamin in the
process. By Carpe Diem out of a Grade 3-winning sprinter, Parkour has a
sprinter/miler pedigree. She’s a need-the-lead type and is victorious only when
she has a comfortable lead.
Legitimate Longshots
RED LARK (12-1) is the only filly proven at nine
furlongs. After winning her maiden at the distance, she shortened up to a mile
in the China Doll Stakes. The Patrick Gallagher trainee made a strong run from eleventh
place but finished fifth, only 1 3/4-lengths behind the winner.
CROUGHAVOUKE (8-1) bobbled at the start of the China
Doll Stakes and was almost nine lengths behind in the early stages. She made a
five-wide move in the stretch to miss by just 2 1/2-lengths. Umburto Rispoli is
one of the better turf riders in California.
K P DREAMIN (12-1) showed new life after a surface
switch and drop from Grade 1 company. In her turf debut against allowance/optional
claimers, The Jeff Mullens trainee made up thirteen lengths, to miss second
place by a half-length. It was a good effort, and this daughter of Union Rags
has plenty of turfy class in her distaff line; Her dam is a half-sister to the winner
of the 2008 Pacific Classic (G1) and three-time record-setter Go Between. K P
Dreamin should improve in her second turf start and love the extra distance.
The rest of the field appears up against it.
SELECTIONS
I don’t expect a fast pace. There are two confirmed
front-runners, and LAURA’S LIGHT and PARKOUR, although Laura’s
Light can press the pace. K P DREAMIN can also press the pace or draft
behind the top pair, along with LITTLE BIRD. The rest are one-run closers,
and we could see an exciting finish if the front-runners falter.
The revamped road to the rescheduled 146th Kentucky Derby
gets underway this Saturday at Churchill Downs with the $150k Matt Winn Stakes.
The one- mile and one-sixteenth Grade 3 race offers 50-20-10-5 points to the
first four finishers towards a berth in the September 5th Kentucky Derby. The morning line favorite and headliner in the twelve-horse
field is Maxfield, owned by Godolphin and trained by Brenden Walsh. Maxfield
won the Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland last fall and after shipping to Santa
Anita for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, the colt came up lame and was unable to
compete.
In November, Maxfield underwent surgery for an ankle chip
and then returned to the racetrack in mid-February to begin workouts. At that
point, given the small time-frame allotted to be fully ready for an opportunity
at the May ‘Run for the Roses’, the horse, in all probability, would have
missed his chance. The postponement of the big race to the first Saturday in
September gives his connections more time to prepare him properly.
Recent allowance winner, Pneumatic, from the Steve Asmussen
barn and Unbridled Stakes runner-up, Attachment Rate, trained by Dale Romans,
are 4-1 co-second choice on the morning line.
Post time for the Matt Winn Stakes, Race 10 on the Churchill
card, is slated for 5:44 EST.
Here is the field from the rail out.
PP – Horse - Jockey/Trainer - ML
1 – Mystic Guide – Hernandez/Stidham – 15-1 - Most
recently, this colt, also owned by Godolphin, was an impressive maiden winner
at Fairgrounds, drawing away to win by five lengths, handling the stretch out
from six-furlongs with aplomb. Off that performance, he now faces stakes
company. Although it appears an ambitious placement, the colt has the pedigree
and may be any kind of runner. 2 – Pneumatic – Santana/Asmussen – 4-1 – Like the one
above, this colt was also successful going sprint to route. Recorded
back-to-back wins to start his career. Faces his toughest challenge to date
here, but his manner of victory last race against a good allowance field
indicates there may be more in the tank. Goes out for top connections.
3 – Informative – Bisono/St.Lewis – 20-1 – Twice he
has faced graded stakes company and finished far back both times. His one for
nine record does not inspire any confidence. 4 – Celtic Striker – Franco/Handal – 20-1 – Colt
finished 42 lengths behind last time out in the G3 Gotham over two months ago.
In his other stakes appearance, he was defeated by 15 lengths. He’s an outsider
who is too slow and is sure to be a pace casualty.
5 – Flap Jack – Bejarano/Sisterson – 20-1 – He has
raced well on turf and synthetic, winning the Arlington Washington Futurity as
a two-year-old on the latter surface and finishing second on the former.
However, he has been unable to finish better than fifth in his dirt races,
including two stakes appearances.
6 – Ny Traffic – Lopez/Joseph – 10-1 – The change to
the Joseph barn has done this horse a world of good. Started the year with a big
allowance win, then put together back-to-back G2 stake place finishes - 3rd in
the Risen Star and 2nd in the Louisiana Derby – both from outside posts. Gets a
better draw here, has excellent early speed and could be the one to catch.
7 – Necker Island – Gaffalione/Hough – 15-1 - This
horse has been non-competitive in three straight races, but he has also
suffered bad trips in each, so he really never had any true chance. Even if
things go smoothly this time around, he’ll need to get faster to have any shot
at hitting the board. That’s not likely to happen.
8 – Crypto Cash – Lanerie/McPeek – 20-1 – Has run on
all three surfaces and has performed well on dirt. Never was in the G1 Arkansas
Derby where he finished sixth, beaten 10-lengths by Charlatan, but don’t hold
that effort against him. Gets a class drop here, but needs to run faster to
make any kind of impact.
9 – Shake Some Action – Castellano/Cox – 12-1 – Was
steadied early in the G2 Louisiana Derby then caught a wide trip, but he did
manage to close from far back to finish sixth, beating half the field. Gets
reunited with jockey Castellano, who won on this colt two starts back.
10 – Maxfield – J.Ortiz/Walsh – 5-2 – The race
headliner has not raced since early October, but he’s really picked up his
training the last few weeks. He is one horse who should really benefit from the
later date of the Kentucky Derby. Question here is: Will he be able to
duplicate his excellent juvenile form heading into his first race as a
sophomore? Obviously, this race is the launching point to Louisville, and
although I don’t think he will be fully cranked, he could still get the job
done.
11 – Attachment Rate – Velazquez/Romans – 4-1 – Three
races back he drew off to win his maiden by six lengths over a sloppy Gulfstream
track. He was shipped north to Aqueduct and finished a solid third in the G3
Gotham, then returned to Florida where he was runner-up in the Unbridled Stakes
last time out. He will have his work cut out for him from post 11, but his
speed figures are competitive and he will be piloted by one of the best.
12 – Major Fed – Rosario/Foley – 5-1 – His graded
stakes races have been good, as he was second in the G2 Risen Star two back,
and then closed from dead last in the 14-horse G2 Louisiana Derby to finish
fourth. In both those efforts, he endured wide trips from better posts than he
drew here, so it’s pretty likely another overland journey awaits him. It is
tough to back him on the win end from out wide, but an on-the-board finish is
possible.
ANALYSIS Throughout the meet, the Churchill surface has been
favorable to frontrunners at 8.5 furlongs. That bodes well for Ny Traffic
who should be able to secure the lead and set the pace.
The cutback in distance
from his previous two races should certainly help. The other two speedsters, Celtic
Strike and Necker Island, both have shown they also need the lead to
run their best but don’t appear as fast early as my top pick. Without the
lead, both runners have finished off the board multiple times.
The class and speed displayed by Maxfield as a
two-year-old towers over the field. Of course, the seven-month layoff is a
concern, but the colt has trained splendidly and looks ready for his debut. In
addition, trainer Walsh has a high win percentage (20%) with horses returning
from extended layoffs of 90 days or more. Jockey Ortiz will need to work out a
good trip from post 10, and then hope that his horse’s sustained running style
can overcome the pace.
My wagers $10 Win/Place Ny Traffic (Total $20) $10 Exacta Box – Ny
Traffic/Maxfield (Total $20) $1.00 Trifecta Wheel – 6,10 with 2,6,10 with 1,2,6,10,12
(Total $12)
Gulfstream Park, the old-boy of fan-less racing, is joined
this weekend by another Stronach track, Santa Anita Park, and Churchill Downs.
The new editions will, also, race fan-less.
The Roar Stakes at Gulfstream Park is a big race for
3-year-olds who have avoided the Run for the Roses and are competing in spring
sprint races. The compact field of six is competitive with all but one having
stakes experience. Here is the field:
1.Ricki Ticki
Taffi (Field Commission) has finished in the money on his two stakes’
appearances. He should handle the distances and is quick out of the gate. Keeps
Zayas as his pilot. Will push the pace on Gulfstream’s speed favoring dirt
oval.
2.With Verve
(Kantharos) won $100,000 stakes race at Gulfstream last out. Two back, he won
at 7 furlongs suggesting the distance will suit him. Shows a solid Thoro-Graph
figure, which supports his Morning Line odds.
3.Double
Crown (Bourbon Courage) is bred solidly for sprinting. Stepping up in
company and gets extra weight from the last race. Is trying the extra half
furlong for the first time. May not be fast or classy enough for the distance.
4.Cajun
Casanova (Cajun Breeze) comes off a nice turf win to run on the dirt, an
approach that works well for his trainer. Already run four times this year
boasting two wins, a second and a 4th. He should be out of the gate fast, but
there are questions if he can hold on.
5.Green Light
Go (Hard Spun) is impeccably bred. His sire finished in the money in all
three legs of the 2007 Triple Crown and ended that year as Champion Sprinter.
Making a huge class drop and trying Lasix for the first time. Has been on the
bench for the longest of all in the race (105 days-15 weeks). Concerned about
the purpose of this race for this colt and his readiness. Clearly, on paper,
the best in the field.
6.Ournationonparade
(Cal Nation) has shown his ability to run at this level and distance. Clipped
heels last and threw ridder. He was walked off. Seems like he needs more work
before expecting to win.
Analysis:
The numbers point to Green Light Go. However, the
class drop, long layoff, and the introduction of Lasix after a career without
it give cause for a pause. Ricki Ticki Taffi’s speed from the rail with
proven ability at stakes level racing and seven-furlong distance may be hard to
catch, albeit not as classy as some of the others. Cajun Casanova will
challenge for leadership but does not have stamina as last half-furlong arises.
With Verve should be positioned nicely for a spurt in the lane. Should be the
first to the wire if the pace remains fast. With four in the field with early
speed, it should.
The forecast is great and expect the race to be on the lawn.
That being the case the #1 Just Whistle (Quiz; Who said that? Answer
below) will be scratched as the MTO.
Considering the times of our new era and lifestyles, many of
these horses have been on layoffs, and I’m sure trainers have been looking for
a place to run as the summer season begins. And there some good performers in
this group.
I’ll run through these as I see them as contenders.
#9 Social Paranoia (3-1) – Pletcher/Zayas – He’s two
for two at Gulfstream winning the Appleton G3 last out 42 days ago. They have
him listed as late closer P5, but his running lines say he can be versatile,
run with the crowd, track the pace and closes well. He’s my top pick.
#6 Halladay (4-1) – Pletcher/Saez – Saez took him to
the front in his last out here and improved his position. This four-year-old
War Front/Tapit mare mix is ideal for the race and is also two for two at
Gulfstream. It was hard to put him second in my selections with his 2019 ITM
record in all six races and a win to open up this year. Can we get a Pletcher
Exacta?
#11 Admission Office (5-2) – Lynch/Rosario – His
class alone says he’ll be a contender, and his work tab is good given his
layoff. They have been running him longer in classy company, but his last win
was for 80k in an allowance race at Keeneland. I don’t believe he’s at the
right distance, but he has been second in three races here. Rosario has been
hot as of late; maybe he can work out a trip? ITM contender.
Wild Horses….
#7 Hawkish (10-1) – Toner/Jaramillo – This half-million
dollar winner has won and placed her in three races, has very good works over
the turf at Palm Meadows since early March. He seems to do his best when
traveling with the pack and breaks for the lead in or near the final turn.
Jaramillo may be just the guy to help Toner get out of his slump. Logical given
his record.
#12 War of Will (10-1) – Casse/Gaffalione – Liked him
coming up as a contender to the Triple Crown last year, and he captured the
Preakness. After that, it seemed to go awry. He been on a rest for 189 days and
got back to work in February with a lot of bullet works over the grass at Palm
Meadows, including some very hot 57s going five. When ya look at his lines,
he’s a dirt horse? No. He’s a War Front with at Irish mom out of Sadler’s Wells
screams TURF, and he’s been on the turf early in his life. If he can turn this
around, wouldn’t it be great to watch him get older and better? Gaffalione
knows what to do and may surprise.
#4 Aquaphobia (10-1) – Maker/Ortiz, I Jr. – Since
coming to Maker, he’s won one and was going there when the rider lost the whip.
I think we draw a line through that race. Twelve of this seven-year-old’s
fifteen races at this distance were ITM. He won and is 60% ITM here. The
connections give me hope for a good effort. If he goes 12-1 or higher, I’ll
play him to win as part of my bets.
Bombers….
#5 Cullum Road (20-1) – Ignacio/Bravo – Last seen
finishing second and a neck ahead of Admission Office in the Grade 3 River City
at Churchill, he has been steadily working into condition. He’s been over the
lawn here and is one for two. His journeyman jockey will know what to do. I
have to like him personally as he helped my winnings at Kentucky Downs last
fall. He could go off at big odds and help any trifecta play.
#2 Sand Dancer (20-1) – Hills/Meneses – The
connections worry me as their stats are not exactly stellar, but the horse is
interesting. He’s raced the distance eight times with three wins and second
place twice. Can’t put my finger on it, but he shows up at the right price. And
Marcos has pulled off some crazy stuff this season once in a while. Have to put
him under in a trifecta.
#3 El Tormenta (12-1) – Cox/Davis – I think Gail had
a good plan for this guy last out putting him in the Appleton G3 here, but he
pulled post 12 in a field of 12 rushed to the front as he was being pushed
wide. Hard way to go at Gulfstream. He’s a Grade One winner who’s made three-quarters
of a million going off at 44-1. So, who can argue with that? Not me. He is
another that seems logical, and if his odds are right, he should be played as a
win bomber.
The Rest…
#1 Just Whistle (8-1) will be scratched.
#8 Regally Irish (20-1) – Motion/Maragh – Like Graham
Motion and turf on any contest, but the horse has not shown anything that
resembles contender status for this one.
#10 Highland Sky (15-1) – Tagg/Vasquez – This animal
has been going long for most of his career, and the breeding doesn’t show me he
should go those distances. Having said that, he has been a winner at this
distance three times and showed twice in six attempts. His latest claim to fame
is a win against three others in the slop. I can’t justify him in the top
three. Put him in the bottom of a Superfecta if that’s what you like.
Handigambling
Exactas
$2 Exacta Key – 9 & 6 with All= $40
$2 Exacta Key - 9 & 6 with 2,3,5,6,9= $20
Trifecta
$.50 – 9,6 with 9,6,12,7,4,5,2,3,11 with
9,6,12,7,4,5= $35
Good Luck
Just Whistle – Answer: Lauren Bacall with Bogart in
To Have and Have Not 1944.
Great Scene – Great Movie at a time when America fought back
against great threats.
You could take in the movie while we are in the pandemic
while we have Social Paranoia as we are on Halladay at the beaches to be a Sand
Dancer ‘cause we have Aquaphobia go to battle this War of Will against El
Tormenta in a Haskish manner. Take Cullum Road to the Admission Office and get
your tickets to freedom from boredom.
This year, the first Saturday in May may not be showcasing
mint juleps, fancy hats, and a beautiful rendition of “My Old Kentucky Home.”
Despite what will be missing from this special day, there will be no lack of
great racing in the 3-Year-Old division. While tracks like Oaklawn Park
continue to offer racing fans a distraction from what’s happening around the
world, they will be featuring two divisions of top-class racing to continue the
tradition that the “First Saturday in May” still belongs to the sport of kings.
With two divisions and a slew of Derby points on the line,
Bob Baffert sends out the lightly raced favorites of both divisions through
Charlatan and Nadal. Despite serving up this duo of top-class talent, the 2nd
division of this year’s Arkansas Derby features one of the most talented and
competitive fields in preparation for the first Saturday in September. From
Breeders Cup Juvenile winner Storm The Court, Tampa Bay Derby shocker King
Guillermo and Louisiana Derby champion Wells Bayou to name a few. This field
offers a ton of value from a wagering standpoint, and despite not being the run
for the roses that we are used to seeing on this day, a trip to Oaklawn winners
circle could help guide its victor to that same trip under the twin spires in
just four months.
Race Analysis:
This ultra-talented group of horses will have no shortage of
speed when they come out of the gate. Several horses in this field have found
recent success with front running scores, none more impressive than Nadal in
the sloppy going of the Rebel. Nadal was pushed early by a next out winner in
No Parole and mid-race by American Theorem and was still able to turn away the
remainder of the field. This time around, Nadal will have some more talented
front runners to deal with in Wells Bayou and King Guillermo, both Grade 2
winners last time out who went wire to wire in their respective prep races.
These two will be a much tougher challenge for Nadal to turn away on the front
end and will potentially open things up for a horse that may have enough talent
to run down a tired horse.
In the situation that these top horses are able to fight it
out on the front end and the strength of Nadal cannot hold up against the speed
that he faces, expect to see Farmington Road coming with a late charge to go
get the pacesetters. After a very strong closing effort in the Oaklawn Stakes,
this pace scenario could set up perfectly for a horse like Farmington Road or
even Fennick The Fierce, who’s coming off a nice 2nd place effort at Oaklawn on
April 4th who are talented enough to be there on the line.
Another wild card horse that is absolutely talented enough
to put together a top-class effort in this spot and has proven himself in Hot
Springs is Silver Prospector. This son of Declaration of War was impressive in
his Southwest triumph and despite having a good position during his race in the
Rebel, he was rushed up a bit early on the fast pace that was set and was stuck
down on the wet rail majority of the trip. It was not the worst possible trip
that Silver Prospector could have endured, but it is enough, in my opinion, to
give him an excuse and a possibility that he could bounce back in a big way in
the Arkansas Derby.
My Plays:
$20 Win - 10 Farmington Road - $20
$5 Exacta Box - 10,11 - $10
$10 Exacta Key Box - 10 with 5,11 = $40
$2 Trifecta - 10,11 with 5,10,11 with 1,4,5,7 = $28
Total: $98
Final Thoughts:
Nadal has obviously stamped himself as a potential
superstar, however, this field is an upgrade from what he has faced so far in
his career and he should be in for a much tougher challenge. The two main shots
that will be coming for Nadal will be from Wells Bayou, who will try to
potentially outrun him if they both want to stick to their speed tactics, as
well as my top pick in Farmington Road. Farmington Road is a horse that should
be positioned much closer to the front this time around and could be given a
golden opportunity based on the way this race will play out to be charging late
past a hardworking group of front runners to take the Arkansas Derby. This will
be a much different test for Nadal, in tennis terms this is his first grand
slam event. It will be a great test for him but for myself I see it has a great
opportunity to get great value on some very talented horses around him who are
up for the task.
The Arkansas Derby will be a feature event on horse racing’s
feature day of the year. A card chalked with full fields and top class racing
will help to make this Saturday one to remember for the sport, in a good way.
