Our New Kentucky Home - Derby Day in Hot Springs (Round 2)
By: Alex Sausville, Off the Turf Podcast
This year, the first Saturday in May may not be showcasing
mint juleps, fancy hats, and a beautiful rendition of “My Old Kentucky Home.”
Despite what will be missing from this special day, there will be no lack of
great racing in the 3-Year-Old division. While tracks like Oaklawn Park
continue to offer racing fans a distraction from what’s happening around the
world, they will be featuring two divisions of top-class racing to continue the
tradition that the “First Saturday in May” still belongs to the sport of kings.
With two divisions and a slew of Derby points on the line,
Bob Baffert sends out the lightly raced favorites of both divisions through
Charlatan and Nadal. Despite serving up this duo of top-class talent, the 2nd
division of this year’s Arkansas Derby features one of the most talented and
competitive fields in preparation for the first Saturday in September. From
Breeders Cup Juvenile winner Storm The Court, Tampa Bay Derby shocker King
Guillermo and Louisiana Derby champion Wells Bayou to name a few. This field
offers a ton of value from a wagering standpoint, and despite not being the run
for the roses that we are used to seeing on this day, a trip to Oaklawn winners
circle could help guide its victor to that same trip under the twin spires in
just four months.
Race Analysis:
This ultra-talented group of horses will have no shortage of
speed when they come out of the gate. Several horses in this field have found
recent success with front running scores, none more impressive than Nadal in
the sloppy going of the Rebel. Nadal was pushed early by a next out winner in
No Parole and mid-race by American Theorem and was still able to turn away the
remainder of the field. This time around, Nadal will have some more talented
front runners to deal with in Wells Bayou and King Guillermo, both Grade 2
winners last time out who went wire to wire in their respective prep races.
These two will be a much tougher challenge for Nadal to turn away on the front
end and will potentially open things up for a horse that may have enough talent
to run down a tired horse.
In the situation that these top horses are able to fight it
out on the front end and the strength of Nadal cannot hold up against the speed
that he faces, expect to see Farmington Road coming with a late charge to go
get the pacesetters. After a very strong closing effort in the Oaklawn Stakes,
this pace scenario could set up perfectly for a horse like Farmington Road or
even Fennick The Fierce, who’s coming off a nice 2nd place effort at Oaklawn on
April 4th who are talented enough to be there on the line.
Another wild card horse that is absolutely talented enough
to put together a top-class effort in this spot and has proven himself in Hot
Springs is Silver Prospector. This son of Declaration of War was impressive in
his Southwest triumph and despite having a good position during his race in the
Rebel, he was rushed up a bit early on the fast pace that was set and was stuck
down on the wet rail majority of the trip. It was not the worst possible trip
that Silver Prospector could have endured, but it is enough, in my opinion, to
give him an excuse and a possibility that he could bounce back in a big way in
the Arkansas Derby.
My Plays:
$20 Win - 10 Farmington Road - $20
$5 Exacta Box - 10,11 - $10
$10 Exacta Key Box - 10 with 5,11 = $40
$2 Trifecta - 10,11 with 5,10,11 with 1,4,5,7 = $28
Total: $98
Final Thoughts:
Nadal has obviously stamped himself as a potential
superstar, however, this field is an upgrade from what he has faced so far in
his career and he should be in for a much tougher challenge. The two main shots
that will be coming for Nadal will be from Wells Bayou, who will try to
potentially outrun him if they both want to stick to their speed tactics, as
well as my top pick in Farmington Road. Farmington Road is a horse that should
be positioned much closer to the front this time around and could be given a
golden opportunity based on the way this race will play out to be charging late
past a hardworking group of front runners to take the Arkansas Derby. This will
be a much different test for Nadal, in tennis terms this is his first grand
slam event. It will be a great test for him but for myself I see it has a great
opportunity to get great value on some very talented horses around him who are
up for the task.
The Arkansas Derby will be a feature event on horse racing’s
feature day of the year. A card chalked with full fields and top class racing
will help to make this Saturday one to remember for the sport, in a good way.
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