Handicapper's Corner: 2020 Davona Dale Stakes (G2)

Pace May Shape the Outcome of Davona Dale Stakes

By: Michael Amo, ThoroFan Chairman

A group of nine well-bred fillies aspire for greatness as they all try the grade 2 level for the first time. For some, the rise is very steep. Yet as February closes maturity begins to show. 

Which ones will show the needed growth is the handicapping task at hand? The pace may make this one-turn challenge.

Let’s look at the field.

1.       Chart (Lea) benefited from the draw and may show some early speed. With a maiden win and the next race a graded event, a lot of questions precede the opening of the gates. A distance question exists. Preparing nicely with two bullet workouts. Has a chance to surprise, if she holds on. Big “IF”.

2.       Dream Marie (Graydar) loves Gulfstream Park boasting 2-for-2 on the surface, albeit at the Gulfstream West level. Answered some questions winning last out coming off the pace. Looks a little too slow for this crowd, although could improve off last. Positive jockey move. 

3.       Emily’s Oasis (American Pharoah) carries the right DNA into the gate. She will push the pace and should handle the 8-furlong distance. Working bullets. Last four starts in the money at 2. Can she improve enough for her for first start at 3? Maybe, but not likely.

4.       Nikki and Papa (Mineshaft) tried to break her maiden in the Grade 2 Forward Gal. Beat half the field at 22.5-1. Finished 3rd after a terrible start that would have done in most fillies at her age. Unlikely she will break her maiden at this level. 

5.       Reluctant Bride (Speightstown) after an impressive first start she tried the grade 3 level. Not good enough that day. She has the fastest fractions out of the gate for this one-turn mile. Jockey change to Prat may help. With nice gate work going for the lead early may be the strategy. Could hit the first turn on the lead with enough left to surprise. 

6.       Spice Is Nice (Curlin) should be the favorite after a 12-length win with an 84 Beyer and a 2 Thorograph number in first start at Gulfstream Park. Moderate works raise some questions. Velazquez and Pletcher team are formidable. Not sure if the first race was too much, too early. Might regress. But how much?

7.       Bayerness (Bayern) working bullets looking ready for the next step. Clearly consistent. With 3 months away from racing and first race as a 3-years-old may be a challenge. She knows how to get to the Winner’s Circle going 2-for-2 on two different tracks. Shows a quick late turn of foot. Could be in the mix at the wire.

8.       Addilyn (Palace Malice) showed promise at 2-years-old, but has not continued to do so. Beyers are uneven suggesting immaturity. Double bullet works suggest readiness, but maybe not at this level or this day.

9.       Tonalist’s Shape (Tonalist) perfect record at Gulfstream Park with top Gulfstream jockey. Her Beyers progressed at 2. Winning the Grade 3 Forward Gal this year tells the story. Thorograph figures suggest she needed that last race. Should recover nicely. Works are respectable for this start. She owns the highest Beyer of the field. Real contender.

So, what does this all this mean? Two horses seem poised to get out of the gate first ---Chart and Reluctant Bride. The one-turn race will force others not to drop back too far. Coming out of the turn the other seven will be moving on the leaders. 

Reluctant Bride’s closing punch and turf experience will make her the target in the final furlongs. It is likely that the attackers will be Spice Is Nice, Bayerness and Tonalist’s Shape. 

Here is how I see the race finishing:

1.      Tonalist’s Shape (#9)

2.      Bayerness (#7)

3.      Spice Is Nice (#6)

4.      Reluctant Bride (#5)

5.      Dream Marie (#2) –Long Shot

Handigamble ($100)

1.       $20 win bet on Tonalist’s Shape (#9) ----$20

2.       $40 place bet on Tonalist’s Shape (#9) --$40

3.       $1 Trifecta Box (#5, #6, #7 and #9)  ------$24

4.       $4 Exacta Key- #9/( #2, #5, #6, #7) -------$16

Good Luck on Gulfstream’s 10 stakes race-day-card. Have fun but, KEEP THE DAY JOB!

 

Handicapper's Corner: 2020 Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2)

Fountain of Youth Throw-Down

By: Laurie Ross, ThoroCap

On February 29, a full field of twelve 3-year-old colts and geldings will contest the Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2), which is the second of three legs of the Florida prep races for the 2020 Kentucky Derby.  The Derby qualifier awards a points scale of 50-20-10-5 to the top four finishers.  

The race may shape up as a throw-down between the much-hyped Iroquois (G3) winner Dennis’ Moment and the gritty underdog Chance It, winner of the Mucho Macho Man in his last start. There are other worthy contenders who could surprise.

Let’s take a look at the field.

The Favorites

DENNIS' MOMENT was considered the greatest thing since sliced bread right up until the starting gate opened in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. Dennis faceplanted, and struggled all the way around the track. After staggering across the finish line, Dennis’ Moment was an exhausted horse. The Romans trainee gets a class check. Yes, he won the Iroquois (G3), but it was a weak race. Runner-up Scabbard has been off the board in three stakes.  Worried about the layoff? Don’t be, Romans stole the 2018 Fountain of Youth with the front-running Promises Fulfilled.

CHANCE IT had everything going for him. He beat up on state-breds, turned back As Seen on TV in the Mucho Macho Man, and bested Sole Volante, the future winner of the Sam F. Davis. Then Chance It was handed the kiss of death when he drew the far outside post. He doesn’t need the lead, but unless Gaffalione can get Chance It closer to the rail, they’ll be wide the entire way.

Spoiler Alert

AS SEEN ON TV checks all the boxes as the previous Fountain of Youth winners. Second off a layoff? Check. In the money in his last start? Check. Pace pressing style? Check. He has the pedigree and class to easily handle these.

ETE INDIEN doesn’t need the lead to win, but he’s hampered by post eleven. Second to Tiz the Law in the Holy Bull, Ete Indien finished 11 1/2-lengths ahead of the rest of the field. The Biancone trainee will have to prove how good he is from post 11.

SHOTSKI It’s a good thing that he can handle the distance. The pacesetter will use energy early to get to the front. This is his second start off a layoff, and he’s a Grade 2 winner. Looks good, right? Not so fast. Unless he’s within a length of the lead, he doesn’t win.

Exotic Plays

CANDY TYCOON improved dramatically in his first try around two turns. He has speed on the rail, always dangerous. The knock? His post-race works are slightly slower than pre-race. Also, no last-out maiden winner has captured the Fountain of Youth in over a decade. Manny Franco will send the Pletcher trainee to the lead from the rail. They could hang on for a piece.  

COUNTRY GRAMMAR missed the Remsen because of a fever. His work tab at Payson is decent, but I’m skeptical of the recording of the final times. How many horses breeze exactly :49.40 three consecutive times in a row? Still, it’s Brown/Castellano, who have a 29% win rate together.

At first glance, GEAR JOCKEY looked like  the race’s “why?” horse. Still a maiden, his only off the board finishes were on the dirt. But take a look at his last start at a mile. On the far outside in a field of 11, he broke outward, costing him about a length. He hustled up into contention through strong early fractions, was wide around the turn, and started to run out of oats halfway down the stretch. Yes, his form is better on the lawn, but in his second to last breeze, which was a bullet, this guy stretched out like a dirt horse and did the work with little urging. He’s a Calumet homebred with Claiborne back-class. His second dam is a half-sister to Stroll.

Not gonna get them today

LIAM'S LUCKY CHARM — distance challenged. has been a thorn in Chance It’s side, but only at shorter distances. Note that the Ralph Nick’s trainee only wins when he has an uncontested early lead. 

THE FALCON — slow, one-paced grinder.

MAKABIM — slow, one-paced grinder.

MASTERDAY — can’t beat claimer. One-paced sort, that pace being slow.

Selections

Outside posts are the kiss of death at Gulfstream. In the last dozen years, only two horses won from the outside; that was post nine, plus only two have won the Fountain of Youth first off a layoff. I like Dennis’ Moment, he’s a talented horse. I also realize this isn’t his goal, and perhaps he isn’t 100% cranked. I don’t like leaving Candy Tycoon off my top four, so if Chance It scratches, use him.

As Seen on TV fits the profile of previous Fountain of Youth winners.

#6 AS SEEN ON TV (9-2)

#11 ETE INDIEN  (8-1)

#5 DENNIS’ MOMENT (2-1)

#12 CHANCE IT (7-2)

Handicapper's Corner: 2020 Buena Vista Stakes (G2)

Super Longshot Play in Buena Vista Stakes

By: Robert Marks (@theyreinthegate)

Saturday at 5:39 pm Eastern time is the Grade 2 2020 $200,000 Buena Vista Stakes. This race is for fillies and mares 4 old’s and Up. The Distance is 1 miles on the turf. 

With no Derby Prep races this week, this will be the main event of the day going off as Race #5 on the Santa Anita card.

#9 Super Patriot (12-1)  In these turf races I look for experience and this 5 year old mare fits the bill. She also has been in the money the last 7 races which include 5 at Santa Anita. Trained by Richard Baltas, I love the valve at 12-1 and this is a strong overlay bet.

#2Caressa (4-1) This 4 year old is hot, winning 3 of the last 4. The caveat is that she has only 1 start on the turf but that was her last race, it was at Santa Anita, and she beat older mares. With 12 racers could get caught in a pace duel. She will be close to the front early on. 

#8-Lady Prancelot (Ireland) (5-1)  Another Richard Baltas trainee, she likes the win photo with a win % of 29% and over ½ million dollars in earnings. This 4 year old has a lot of starts (17) and now she faces older stakes seasoned mares. Pace makes the race and we think there will be enough pace for her deep closing running style for her to be coming late picking off horses. 

Overall, we expect a fast pace with Caressa right there going early setting up the race for our other 2 picks, Super Patriot and Lady Prancelot closing late. We see Super Patriot as the victor. If she is anywhere near the morning line odds of 12-1 this will be a steal and worthy of win bet money.

Wagering/Betting Handigambling Bankroll: Here is our $100 worth of betting for the race

Exacta Key Box: 9/2,8  = $10 for $40 total

Trifecta 9/2,8/2,8 =  ($5 Box for $10 Total)

Win Bet 9 = $50 

As always, watch the Board and if at the track watch how the horses look in the Paddock and adjust your bets accordingly. Good Luck!