Pace May Shape the Outcome of Davona Dale Stakes
By: Michael Amo, ThoroFan Chairman
A group of nine well-bred fillies aspire for greatness as
they all try the grade 2 level for the first time. For some, the rise is very
steep. Yet as February closes maturity begins to show.
Which ones will show the
needed growth is the handicapping task at hand? The pace may make this one-turn
challenge.
Let’s look at the field.
1. Chart
(Lea) benefited from the draw and may show some early speed. With a maiden win
and the next race a graded event, a lot of questions precede the opening of the
gates. A distance question exists. Preparing nicely with two bullet workouts.
Has a chance to surprise, if she holds on. Big “IF”.
2. Dream Marie
(Graydar) loves Gulfstream Park boasting 2-for-2 on the surface, albeit at the
Gulfstream West level. Answered some questions winning last out coming off the
pace. Looks a little too slow for this crowd, although could improve off last.
Positive jockey move.
3. Emily’s
Oasis (American Pharoah) carries the right DNA into the gate. She will push
the pace and should handle the 8-furlong distance. Working bullets. Last four
starts in the money at 2. Can she improve enough for her for first start at 3?
Maybe, but not likely.
4. Nikki and
Papa (Mineshaft) tried to break her maiden in the Grade 2 Forward Gal. Beat
half the field at 22.5-1. Finished 3rd after a terrible start that would have
done in most fillies at her age. Unlikely she will break her maiden at this
level.
5. Reluctant
Bride (Speightstown) after an impressive first start she tried the grade 3
level. Not good enough that day. She has the fastest fractions out of the gate
for this one-turn mile. Jockey change to Prat may help. With nice gate work
going for the lead early may be the strategy. Could hit the first turn on the lead
with enough left to surprise.
6. Spice Is
Nice (Curlin) should be the favorite after a 12-length win with an 84 Beyer
and a 2 Thorograph number in first start at Gulfstream Park. Moderate works
raise some questions. Velazquez and Pletcher team are formidable. Not sure if
the first race was too much, too early. Might regress. But how much?
7. Bayerness
(Bayern) working bullets looking ready for the next step. Clearly consistent. With
3 months away from racing and first race as a 3-years-old may be a challenge.
She knows how to get to the Winner’s Circle going 2-for-2 on two different
tracks. Shows a quick late turn of foot. Could be in the mix at the wire.
8. Addilyn
(Palace Malice) showed promise at 2-years-old, but has not continued to do so.
Beyers are uneven suggesting immaturity. Double bullet works suggest readiness,
but maybe not at this level or this day.
9. Tonalist’s
Shape (Tonalist) perfect record at Gulfstream Park with top Gulfstream
jockey. Her Beyers progressed at 2. Winning the Grade 3 Forward Gal this year
tells the story. Thorograph figures suggest she needed that last race. Should
recover nicely. Works are respectable for this start. She owns the highest
Beyer of the field. Real contender.
So, what does this all this mean? Two horses seem poised to
get out of the gate first ---Chart and Reluctant Bride. The one-turn race will
force others not to drop back too far. Coming out of the turn the other seven
will be moving on the leaders.
Reluctant Bride’s closing punch and turf experience will
make her the target in the final furlongs. It is likely that the attackers will
be Spice Is Nice, Bayerness and Tonalist’s Shape.
Here is how I see the race finishing:
1. Tonalist’s
Shape (#9)
2. Bayerness
(#7)
3. Spice Is
Nice (#6)
4. Reluctant
Bride (#5)
5. Dream Marie
(#2) –Long Shot
Handigamble ($100)
1. $20 win bet on
Tonalist’s Shape (#9) ----$20
2. $40 place bet
on Tonalist’s Shape (#9) --$40
3. $1 Trifecta
Box (#5, #6, #7 and #9) ------$24
4. $4 Exacta Key-
#9/( #2, #5, #6, #7) -------$16
Good Luck on Gulfstream’s 10 stakes race-day-card. Have fun
but, KEEP THE DAY JOB!
No comments:
Post a Comment