Fountain of Youth Throw-Down
By: Laurie Ross, ThoroCap
On February 29, a full field of twelve 3-year-old colts and
geldings will contest the Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2), which is the second of
three legs of the Florida prep races for the 2020 Kentucky Derby. The Derby qualifier awards a points scale of
50-20-10-5 to the top four finishers.
The race may shape up as a throw-down between the much-hyped
Iroquois (G3) winner Dennis’ Moment and the gritty underdog Chance It, winner
of the Mucho Macho Man in his last start. There are other worthy contenders who
could surprise.
Let’s take a look at the field.
The Favorites
DENNIS' MOMENT was considered the greatest thing
since sliced bread right up until the starting gate opened in the Breeders’ Cup
Juvenile. Dennis faceplanted, and struggled all the way around the track. After
staggering across the finish line, Dennis’ Moment was an exhausted horse. The
Romans trainee gets a class check. Yes, he won the Iroquois (G3), but it was a
weak race. Runner-up Scabbard has been off the board in three stakes. Worried about the layoff? Don’t be, Romans
stole the 2018 Fountain of Youth with the front-running Promises Fulfilled.
CHANCE IT had everything going for him. He beat up on
state-breds, turned back As Seen on TV in the Mucho Macho Man, and bested Sole
Volante, the future winner of the Sam F. Davis. Then Chance It was handed the
kiss of death when he drew the far outside post. He doesn’t need the lead, but
unless Gaffalione can get Chance It closer to the rail, they’ll be wide the
entire way.
Spoiler Alert
AS SEEN ON TV checks all the boxes as the previous
Fountain of Youth winners. Second off a layoff? Check. In the money in his last
start? Check. Pace pressing style? Check. He has the pedigree and class to
easily handle these.
ETE INDIEN doesn’t need the lead to win, but he’s
hampered by post eleven. Second to Tiz the Law in the Holy Bull, Ete Indien
finished 11 1/2-lengths ahead of the rest of the field. The Biancone trainee will
have to prove how good he is from post 11.
SHOTSKI It’s a good thing that he can handle the
distance. The pacesetter will use energy early to get to the front. This is his
second start off a layoff, and he’s a Grade 2 winner. Looks good, right? Not so
fast. Unless he’s within a length of the lead, he doesn’t win.
Exotic Plays
CANDY TYCOON improved dramatically in his first try
around two turns. He has speed on the rail, always dangerous. The knock? His
post-race works are slightly slower than pre-race. Also, no last-out maiden
winner has captured the Fountain of Youth in over a decade. Manny Franco will
send the Pletcher trainee to the lead from the rail. They could hang on for a
piece.
COUNTRY GRAMMAR missed the Remsen because of a fever.
His work tab at Payson is decent, but I’m skeptical of the recording of the
final times. How many horses breeze exactly :49.40 three consecutive times in a
row? Still, it’s Brown/Castellano, who have a 29% win rate together.
At first glance, GEAR JOCKEY looked like the race’s “why?” horse. Still a maiden, his
only off the board finishes were on the dirt. But take a look at his last start
at a mile. On the far outside in a field of 11, he broke outward, costing him
about a length. He hustled up into contention through strong early fractions,
was wide around the turn, and started to run out of oats halfway down the
stretch. Yes, his form is better on the lawn, but in his second to last breeze,
which was a bullet, this guy stretched out like a dirt horse and did the work
with little urging. He’s a Calumet homebred with Claiborne back-class. His
second dam is a half-sister to Stroll.
Not gonna get them today
LIAM'S LUCKY CHARM — distance challenged. has been a
thorn in Chance It’s side, but only at shorter distances. Note that the Ralph
Nick’s trainee only wins when he has an uncontested early lead.
THE FALCON — slow, one-paced grinder.
MAKABIM — slow, one-paced grinder.
MASTERDAY — can’t beat claimer. One-paced sort, that
pace being slow.
Selections
Outside posts are
the kiss of death at Gulfstream. In the last dozen years, only two horses won
from the outside; that was post nine, plus only two have won the Fountain of
Youth first off a layoff. I like Dennis’ Moment, he’s a talented horse. I also
realize this isn’t his goal, and perhaps he isn’t 100% cranked. I don’t like
leaving Candy Tycoon off my top four, so if Chance It scratches, use him.
As Seen on TV fits
the profile of previous Fountain of Youth winners.
#6 AS SEEN ON TV (9-2)
#11 ETE INDIEN (8-1)
#5 DENNIS’ MOMENT (2-1)
#12 CHANCE IT (7-2)
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