Handicapper's Corner: 2019 Mr. Prospector Stakes (G3)

Pace, Class and Form Rule Mr. Prospector Stakes

By: John Caro, S. FL ThoroFan Handicapper

The optimal words for this race are Quick Pace, Class and Form. And we do have some serious class it this race along with super-hot pace contained in two of the contenders. Form is another matter. 

The weather is forecast to be 40% chance of rain and that throws another factor in for an interesting race for this short field of six. The rain-slicked surface at Gulfstream has rarely deterred quick starters from getting to their front running style positions and keeping it. 

The top contenders for this race are without question; #3 - X Y Jet (Navarro/Jaramillo) and #2 - Imperial Hint (Carvajal/Castellano). Both like to be on the lead and it’s a question of who will go first from neighboring gates. Both have the class experience of the field and have tangled with the best of the sprinters in the past few years. 

X Y Jet is the speed of the speed and his jockey is aggressive, so unless Navarro says otherwise I think he’ll be in his usual spot in the first quarter and try to stay there and improve his position. The other great news is his speeds over this track wet (103) or fast (111) as a seven-time winner with four places at Gulfstream he has to be given a top pick for the race at least on paper. Concerning news is he has not raced since March when he won the $2.5M Golden Shaheed in Dubai defeating Imperial Hint but, we look at his past breaks and he recovers well. His works since coming back in October have been bullet, maintenance, and bullet, repeat….he is likely in shape to get things done but, his record at the distance is not so hot with two placings in three races. He loves 6 furlongs but not 7. 

Imperial Hint, on the other hand, has won three of five at the distance at 106 and three for four on a wet track at 109. And his only race at Gulfstream was an impressive win when Castellano ranged him back a bit after the start (keeping him out of trouble) and let him fly into the lane. Pretty impressive and he seems to have improved off his defeat in Dubai and run his last two outings in great style including smashing the track record at Saratoga in the Grade I Vanderbilt off a four-month break shooting bullet works before that race. Looking at his last five bullet works, including at .58 and 2 at Tampa (who does that anywhere?) says to me he’s on track to beat his best speed and throw a 107 or more for the distance. The only downside I see for him is he’ll carry the high weight. He will likely give X Y Jet all he’ll want in this speed race.  

#4 – Zenden (Pletcher/Velazquez) is a Fed Biz colt who was very precocious and a Derby trail candidate last year when he lost it at Lexington and moved into the Pletcher barn. Apparently, his training has paid off in his only start in a mid-level optional claiming race at Gulfstream West. He has some back class but has only had one race since the spring. He did shoot a bullet in his latest work and he may well try to go with the leaders. Pletcher has been very hot at Gulfstream and Johnny V has not. In his favor is Zenden’s record here where he is two for three and a placing at Gulfstream going this distance in the Grade III Swale earlier this year. And though he carries the low weight of the group this 3-year-old may have his work cut out for him facing older classy horses and there is no indication that he’ll want to go in the wet if that’s the case.

#1 – Home Base (Tomlinson/Landeros) has done well at the distance winning four of six facing lesser horses. Although his breeding says he should go well over a wet track his performances with those conditions (and artificial) are very poor. If it’s wet I would make him a toss. He’s also found trouble in several races and his speed figures are below par for this crowd. Just can’t see him making an impact.

#6 – Diamond Oops (Biancone/Leparoux) shows some class but lost by four lengths to Imperial Hint at Saratoga while IH was setting a record. He does show some propensity for wet conditions going two for two lifetime at 100 and is four for five over the track. Leparoux is a dangerous fellow if he tracks the pace of hot fractions and sets down in the stretch as he did in the Smile here earlier in June. The fact that the two top contenders are going to set wicked fractions puts Diamond Oops in a very good position to be close at the finish.

Then there is this guy: #5 – Lasting Legacy (Servis/Ortiz, Ij) who has likely not been on many radars ‘cause he’s been hanging out with lesser horses in other places but under his trainer (who’s had him twice) he’s five for five. He won a black-type at Monmouth last out (the Mr. Prospector, what’s the chances?) with Paco Lopez up. Where’s Paco? Well, he must be busy winning somewhere else on Saturday ‘cause his name is not on the program at Gulfstream. But hey, we do have the ever-present Irad Ortiz, Jr. up for Jason Servis and both trainer and jockey are hotter than a freshly fired pistol, so be careful! 

Lasting Legacy is the quintessential closer who can follow a quick pace and with a well-timed ride may win at a price. His breeding say’s he can go in wet conditions as well. This is my longshot for this race. He makes sense (and more cents) given the likely pace scenario and should have a good price.

In a hot pace scenario like this the faster the better for the closers. If given the chance to drive in to the pace closers can and do win. 

Handi-gambling with $100

$8 Trifecta – 2,3 with 5 with All    $64 – bet that as 8  $1 trifectas

$3 Trifecta – 5 with 2,3,6 with All   $36 – bet that as 6  $0.50 trifectas

Ya’ really could just play a $0.50 trifecta on the second bet and a $2 tri on the first and you’re in for $30 and save the rest for another day…be a handi-player.

Handicapper's Corner: 2019 Ft. Lauderdale Stakes (G2)

Winter Break in South Beach

By: Alex Sausville, Off the Turf Podcast

 

The Michael Maker barn is back in action this week at Gulfstream Park where he will try to take back to back renditions of the Grade 2 Fort Lauderdale. With a trio of contenders this upcoming Saturday, Maker will have a solid chance to repeat his success following Shining Cooper’s 2018 performance. 

One major challenger that will be standing in his way will be Channel Cat, who is shortening up in distance and dropping out of 3 consecutive attempts at grade 1 level. 

And what about Instilled Regard? A Grade 1 placed horse on the turf and a 4th place finisher in the run for the roses, will he be able to find the winners circle for the first time since the Lecomte at Fair Grounds? Lots of questions to be asked, one race for them to be answered.

My Analysis

It will be no secret that Channel Cat will want to push up and be near the front of the pack. After several races not being able to get into a favorable position, Johnny V gets the call and looks to get that same trip that led to triumph in the Grade 2 Bowling Green at Saratoga. It was his last attempt against Grade 2 company that he was able to get an uncontested lead and it led to his first and only win in 2019.

With Johnny Velazquez taking over on Channel Cat, Luis Saez shifts to Cross Border, a Maker trainee who has performed well in allowance and optional claiming company on the New York circuit. Cross Border is one that I found extremely interesting when looking back at his first graded stakes attempt, a 5th place finish in the Turf Classic at Belmont. This looks like a horse who took a big jump up to face a top caliber field and ran very respectably. By dropping from that race level and getting a win last time out at Aqueduct, I feel that this move up to grade 2 is the right spot. This is a field of established older horses, but it is definitely a much easier jump up for Cross Border than facing the likes of Arklow, Channel Maker, and Sadler’s Joy.

One of the major wild cards in this scenario will be Instilled Regard. A horse that has had his dirt form fall off the map since racing on the Kentucky Derby trail has shown some brief flashes of life on the turf. A solid 3rd in the Grade 1 Hollywood Derby going this distance, he comes off of a good late closing effort at Aqueduct. This is a spot that I can see him being there late closing in on the pace, especially if Channel Cat has some company on the front end.

One other horse that should be expected to be flying late will be Admission Office. The Brian Lynch runner has shown a tendency to start out slow and make that big run late. One of the only reasons I consider this horse to have a chance to be there in this spot will be the fact that with horses like Channel Cat, Up the Ante, and possibly even Cross Border could be pushing the pace and see a bit of a pace clash.

Lastly, Flavius, the Juddmonte Farm colt for Chad Brown, will be running his 2nd start in the US and for this year. The 2018 winner of Leopardstown’s Trigo Stakes suffered a tough start last time start and ended up closing late for 4th. I am not personally sold on this horse 2nd time out off of such a major layoff, however, based on the past performance in Ireland and showing a decent turn of foot he will be bet down and could be a legitimate contender.

My Plays

$10 Exacta Box - 7 With 4,8,9 - $60

$30 Win - 7 Cross Border - $30

Total = $90

Final Thoughts:

The more I looked at this race, the more I saw the benefit for Cross Border with having Luis Saez aboard. A horse that won 3 races at Saratoga with Saez and now gets him back for this Grade 2 event, this will be something that makes a big difference in this start. As well with this being a class jump it seems to be just the right caliber field that a horse like Cross Border will be a top contender.

Channel Cat will be tough to beat with a perfect trip on the front end, however despite his drop in class he has 1 win this year and came with an uncontested pace so I am willing to take a play against. 

Lastly, this is a race where a wild card horse could find themselves closing late and making a big move so I went to Instilled Regard, Admission Office and the outside horse Marzo with my underneath plays to finish with Cross Border. A stakes proven horse in Shining Copper gave Maker this triumph last year during winter break in South Florida, now it's time to do it again.

Handicapper's Corner: 2019 Cigar Mile (G1)

Putting a Spin on the Cigar Mile

By: John DaSilva, PARX Oddsmaker

To say this is an unusual year for horse racing is an understatement. Sometimes you never know what can develop. If I looked into my crystal ball on January 4^th and told you the favorite for the Grade 1 Cigar Mile just broke his maiden for $16,000 and the second choice finished third as the favorite at Aqueduct on this date in a maiden special weight in his fourth career start, you would say my crystal ball needs a major adjustment. Well, this is the case as Maximum Security and Spun to Run head a field of eleven in the Cigar Mile.

Maximum Security is the horse that has polarized horse racing. The story of a horse breaking his maiden in career debut for $16,000 in December, to winning the Grade 1 Florida Derby in his fourth career start is stuff movies are made of. But that wasn’t enough. Despite being undefeated with a great story behind him, he was sent off the 9-2 second choice in the Kentucky Derby. The horse finished first in the Kentucky Derby, but after a jockey’s claim of foul, Maximum Security was disqualified from first and placed seventeenth. 

Owners Gary and Mary West have been appealing the decision with no luck so far. But there is more. After finishing second in the Pegasus Stakes at Monmouth, Maximum Security ran and won the hours delayed Grade 1 Haskell in unbearable hot conditions. He was supposed to run in the Grade 1 PA Derby but he scratched due to a colon issue that almost killed him. He recovered and came back in the Grade 3 Bold Ruler and won that. 

Despite all the craziness and bad luck, Maximum Security is still the favorite to win the Eclipse Award for top three-year-old. A victory in the Grade 1 Cigar would solidify the championship for Maximum Security. 

But with the year he had, can we expect things to be easy and fall into place for him? Of course not.

Spun to Run is another horse that not only has a story, but he could put himself into the conversation for top three-year-old with a victory in the Cigar. The Juan Carlos Guerrero trainee took five races before breaking his maiden at Parx in his route and two-turn debut on January 19^th. After an allowance victory in March, he was pointing to race in stakes company but was discovered to have an entrapped epiglottis so he had surgery. He was expected to returns in stakes for his first race back, which turned out to be the weather-delayed Haskell. He ran third in that race and then came back in the Grade 3 Smarty Jones at Parx on Labor Day. He was game in the stretch and outlasted Gray Magician to win the Smarty Jones. He then went into the PA Derby and jockey Paco Lopez went against Guerrero’s instructions, not allowing Spun to Run to run without restraint and the horse ended up fifth.

Spun to Run was supposed to get a break after that race but Guerrero saw something that convinced him to run in the Mike Ballezzi Appreciation Mile. He also switched jockeys, from Paco Lopez to Parx’s second leading rider Sanchez. Riding to instructions, Sanchez allowed Spun to Run to run freely and he drew off to win by 6 ¾ lengths, running a Beyer number of 110. That fig was at that time the third highest run by any three year old this year and the highest run by any horse at a mile, which includes Mitole’s smashing victory in the Grade 1 Met Mile. 

After that win, Guerrero and owner Robert Donaldson had their eyes on the Breeders Cup Dirt Mile. But there was a dilemma, do they stick with Sanchez or switch to a more experienced Grade 1 jock. Irad Ortiz Jr. was tapped to ride Spun to Run, if, Firenze Fire ran in the Breeders Cup Sprint. That did happen but Spun to Run was still being ignored by many as Kentucky Derby morning line favorite Omaha Beach was also pointing to the race. But Ortiz didn’t care, he warmed up Spun to Run vigorously, broke sharply and led every step of the way to win the Breeders Cup Mile.

Spun to Run finally is getting respect and a victory here definitely puts him in the conversation for the championship. But he would need to win in dominating fashion to overtake Code of Honor for the Eclipse Award.

Many have said the three-year-olds are stronger than the older horses this year. While the top two choices on the morning line are three-year-olds, there are couple of other late-developing three-year-olds that should not be ignored here.

Chad Brown sends out an uncoupled entry of Network Effect and Looking at Bikinis. 

Network Effect came off an eleven-month layoff to win at this distance over this course in his seasonal debut last month. He has never finished worse than second in his career and has been working out very well for this spot. 

Looking at Bikinis is an intriguing runner for Chad. In his two career starts in stakes, he broke badly and lost. But then he returned at Keeneland in an allowance, broke well and came off the pace to win impressively. If he can break well and a suicidal speed duel happens, Looking at Bikinis is a longshot to be considered versus these.

Whitmore is the best of the older horses in the field. He is coming off a third-place finish in the Grade 1 Breeders Cup Sprint. The Ron Moquett trainee is a one run closer, so many would think he was stretch out to a mile. Whitmore has not run a race over seven furlongs since the Kentucky Derby, in 2016. He drew the rail here but handicappers need to worry if the addition of two bar shoes is a negative here.

Selections/Handigambling

Betting the Cigar is going to be an interesting thing to do and handicappers will need to take a stand. First, do you believe in Maximum Security? If you don’t, then will he get beat by a horse with early speed like Spun to Run or someone coming off the pace like Looking at Bikinis or Whitmore. Also, if you are anti Maximum Security, will there be a bridge jumper to take advantage of. 

The play here is $10 win Spun to Run, $10 exacta box of Spun to Run, Looking at Bikinis and Network Effect. 

If there is a bridge jumper, then $10 show on the three horses from the exacta play. If there is no bridge jumping, then a $5 exacta key box of Looking at Bikinis with Spun to Run, Network Effect and Maximum Security.