Winter Break in South Beach
By: Alex Sausville, Off the Turf Podcast
The Michael Maker barn is back in action this week at
Gulfstream Park where he will try to take back to back renditions of the Grade
2 Fort Lauderdale. With a trio of contenders this upcoming Saturday, Maker will
have a solid chance to repeat his success following Shining Cooper’s 2018
performance.
One major challenger that will be standing in his way will
be Channel Cat, who is shortening up in distance and dropping out of 3
consecutive attempts at grade 1 level.
And what about Instilled Regard? A Grade 1 placed horse on
the turf and a 4th place finisher in the run for the roses, will he be able to
find the winners circle for the first time since the Lecomte at Fair Grounds?
Lots of questions to be asked, one race for them to be answered.
My Analysis
It will be no secret that Channel Cat will want to
push up and be near the front of the pack. After several races not being able
to get into a favorable position, Johnny V gets the call and looks to get that
same trip that led to triumph in the Grade 2 Bowling Green at Saratoga. It was
his last attempt against Grade 2 company that he was able to get an uncontested
lead and it led to his first and only win in 2019.
With Johnny Velazquez taking over on Channel Cat, Luis Saez
shifts to Cross Border, a Maker trainee who has performed well in
allowance and optional claiming company on the New York circuit. Cross Border
is one that I found extremely interesting when looking back at his first graded
stakes attempt, a 5th place finish in the Turf Classic at Belmont. This looks
like a horse who took a big jump up to face a top caliber field and ran very
respectably. By dropping from that race level and getting a win last time out
at Aqueduct, I feel that this move up to grade 2 is the right spot. This is a
field of established older horses, but it is definitely a much easier jump up
for Cross Border than facing the likes of Arklow, Channel Maker, and Sadler’s
Joy.
One of the major wild cards in this scenario will be Instilled
Regard. A horse that has had his dirt form fall off the map since racing on
the Kentucky Derby trail has shown some brief flashes of life on the turf. A
solid 3rd in the Grade 1 Hollywood Derby going this distance, he comes off of a
good late closing effort at Aqueduct. This is a spot that I can see him being
there late closing in on the pace, especially if Channel Cat has some company
on the front end.
One other horse that should be expected to be flying late
will be Admission Office. The Brian Lynch runner has shown a tendency to
start out slow and make that big run late. One of the only reasons I consider
this horse to have a chance to be there in this spot will be the fact that with
horses like Channel Cat, Up the Ante, and possibly even Cross Border could be
pushing the pace and see a bit of a pace clash.
Lastly, Flavius, the Juddmonte Farm colt for Chad
Brown, will be running his 2nd start in the US and for this year. The 2018
winner of Leopardstown’s Trigo Stakes suffered a tough start last time start
and ended up closing late for 4th. I am not personally sold on this horse 2nd
time out off of such a major layoff, however, based on the past performance in
Ireland and showing a decent turn of foot he will be bet down and could be a
legitimate contender.
My Plays
$10 Exacta Box - 7 With 4,8,9 - $60
$30 Win - 7 Cross Border - $30
Total = $90
Final Thoughts:
The more I looked at this race, the more I saw the benefit
for Cross Border with having Luis Saez aboard. A horse that won 3 races
at Saratoga with Saez and now gets him back for this Grade 2 event, this will
be something that makes a big difference in this start. As well with this being
a class jump it seems to be just the right caliber field that a horse like
Cross Border will be a top contender.
Channel Cat will be tough to beat with a perfect trip
on the front end, however despite his drop in class he has 1 win this year and
came with an uncontested pace so I am willing to take a play against.
Lastly, this is a race where a wild card horse could find
themselves closing late and making a big move so I went to Instilled Regard,
Admission Office and the outside horse Marzo with my underneath
plays to finish with Cross Border. A stakes proven horse in Shining Copper gave
Maker this triumph last year during winter break in South Florida, now it's
time to do it again.
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