Friday, June 25, 2021

Handicapper's Corner: 2021 Stephen Foster Handicap (G2)

 Back for Another Round: Stephen Foster 2021

By: Alex Susville, Off the Turf Podcast



It’s a race with a storied history of producing top handicap horses around the country. The likes of Vanlandingham, Black Tie Affair, Awesome Again, Curlin, and Blame, just to name a few that continued as an older horse to take out this prestigious event.

 

 

The Stephen Foster continues to be a flagship race on the calendar, despite its now Grade 2 status. This year’s rendition presents a strong field of Grade 2 and 3 runners set to take on one of the stars of the handicap division, Maxfield. Despite my personal disappointment to not see this feature event under the lights, the stars will shine just as bright when they turn for home.

 


The field assembled for this year’s Stephen Foster presents several talented runners. However, they will all have to show pretty steady improvement to contend with Godolphin’s flag-bearing four-year-old. Maxfield was sharp as can be when winning the Alysheba Stakes last time out and has only one blemish to his name, a 3rd place finish in a Grade 1 out in California.

 

Although the field that beat him at Santa Anita was technically a Grade 1 field, it came up a bit weak as he was just shy of odds on that day. Maxfield is yet to prove his Grade 1 form in his career and has not beaten too many of the top runners, but he doesn’t face many new challengers today. Partnering again with jockey Jose Ortiz will be a major plus, a combination that has produced a perfect 4 for 4 record, including that convincing win in the Alysheba.

 

The closest rival to Maxfield in the Alysheba is back for another go, in the form of William Morey’s Visitant. After finding an affinity for the synthetic at Turfway earlier this year, Umberto Rispoli jumped on board and changed the tactics greatly in the Alysheba, putting Visitant right on the lead early. He was valiant in defeat but was no match in the stretch. James Graham will be in the saddle for the first time, and to be competitive in this spot may need someone else to set the pace for him.

 

That speed could be found in the hands of Ten Strike Racing’s Warrior’s Charge, an extremely consistent horse throughout his career who has lost that form a bit in 2021. After being completely thrown off his game in the Steve Sexton Mile, Warrior’s Charge will look to get back to the front, and although there are some runners who have shown speed in the past, I don’t envision too many trying to push the pace with Maxfield waiting in behind. This could be a prime opportunity for Warrior’s Charge to be the controlling pace and turn his form around. Will he be at the necessary ability to beat Maxfield in this spot? It would take a pace scenario that works heavily in his favor. However, I don’t think it's that far-fetched that it could happen.

 

My Bets:

$10 Tri - 8 / 6,9 / 1,2,6,9 = $60

 

$10 Ex Box - 6 / 8,9 = $40

 

Total: $100

 

Final Thoughts:

This is Maxfield’s race to win. If he shows up like he has in just about every start of his career, he should be too tough to beat in this spot.

 

Underneath, I see Warrior’s Charge as the one horse who could take him down with a good trip up front. Obviously, he will need a big turnaround in form to do this, but there are enough excuses in his last few starts to suggest he is still capable of a major effort.

 

Visitant is another one capable of a good effort, but not an effort I see being good enough to win.

 

Chess Chief has been very consistent this season and is worth an underneath look, as well as the improving Maker trainee, Empty Tomb.

 

The race for minor spoils could be a competitive one, but it shouldn’t be much competition for who claims the top spot.


Friday, June 18, 2021

Handicapper's Corner: 2021 San Juan Capistrano (G3)

 Turf Routers in the San Juan Capistrano Spotlight

By: The Turk

Welcome friends to the Turk and the Little Turk blog, now in our fourteenth year of writing handicaps. The Turk would like to thank the good people at The Thorfan for the opportunity to bring my thoughts to you. 

The Turk took a break from racing when the pandemic came, and I'm only coming out of it now to focus on the summer and fall turf racing circuit. 

 When something doesn't make you happy anymore, you need to let it go. I'm not sure that the races make me happy anymore. I love the horses, I love the sport, the humans and the business of horse racing I have a deep dislike of the situation surrounding Arlington Race Track, my favorite North American turf venue, and the pathetic state of Illinois racing, put me in a very sour mood. If there is a future for me to stay in this sport, I have to get past the heartbreak that the demolition of Hollywood Park, and potentially Arlington, would bring to me. I'm trying.

The Santa Anita Turf Chute is at least one new innovative idea that I can get behind in racing. The Chute gives a beautiful sweeping downhill 6 1/2 furlongs before crossing the dirt and opening up to longer distances. Today's handicap, the marathon 1 3/4 mile Grade 3 San Juan Capistrano gives us the full downhill and the full turf oval. 

The only downside to me is field size, with only six scheduled to go in Saturday's 11th and final race of the day, a 9:29 ET start. No amount of innovation can cover up the smaller field sizes that takes away upside in turf race investing. 

Anyways, I've attached a link to an article that lays out how the betting has gone on the chute through a small sample size. 

Lets get after this!  

 


Generally I'd post recent race video of the horses competing against each other at relevant distances. This is such an odd ball, and the longer chute is so new, I'm not going to bother. 

My handicap also didn't identify overlays as compared to the track handicapper or what I suspect the public and the tote board will assign as fair odds. 

So, what to do with this? Quite frankly, I'd pass on betting this race. I don't believe in action betting which is the equivalent of playing squares on the Big Game or Bingo. 

 If I absolutely wanted to play it, and the purpose of this blog is to play the ponies, then I would clearly define my bet limit and I'd look at some interesting angle. That's the downside of the small field.

Where would an interesting angle come from? Acclimate is 35.7% win odds Ward n' Jerry and Red King 28.6% each: 92.9% of the morning line odds of 129% (takeout/breakage/yada yada) 72% of the win potential is in these three. In my fair odds, it's 70 of 100%. 

The reality is some combination of these three in a boxed exacta is the most likely winning ticket, but a $2 dollar, 3 horse exacta box is $12, and the take would hardly justify the risk. I'm instead going to put 3 over Acclimate, a $2 dollar Bet for $6 investment: Astronaut, Pilar Mountain (Ire) or Lure Him In over Acclimate. I'd rather lose $6 in this case than be conservative and have a poor risk-reward proposition. 

Have fun with it friends! 

Turk Out

Friday, June 11, 2021

Handicapper's Corner: Salvador Mile (G3)

 NY Traffic Heading to Monmouth

By: Laurie Ross, Pedigree Power

 

The Salvador Mile (G3) at Monmouth Park attracted ten older horses. Last year’s Salvador Mile winner Pirate’s Punch is back to defend his title. However, his nemesis Bal Harbor, who placed third in two attempts against Pirate’s Punch, will try to turn the tables. Ny Traffic could jam up the results.

 

 

Let’s take a look at the most likely suspects.

 

Pirate’s Punch runs well fresh. He’s been out of the money only twice since 2019, and he’s our returning Salvador Mile champ. The Grant Foster trainee loves Monmouth; he recorded two of his career-best speed figures at the track. In addition, Pirate’s Punch has tactical speed from the outside.

 

Ny Traffic began his 4-year-old season with a resounding 6 3/4-length victory against state-bred optional claimers. The race was a strong confidence builder after the pretty gray colt was beaten a combined 34 lengths in the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes. Previously, Ny Traffic gave Authentic all he handle in the Haskell Invitational (G1). The Saffie Joseph, Jr. trainee shares the highest Brisnet late-pace figure in the field with Informative. NY Traffic does his best work as a pacesetter/presser.

 

West Will Power is lightly raced with only five starts under his girth. However, he’s never been out of the money and is undefeated at Monmouth in both starts. West Will Power is making his first start as a 4-year-old, and the Kelly Breen trainee is stepping up from Optional Claiming class. He has tactical speed but will likely settle just off the pace in the early stages.

 

Galerio has speed on the rail. He’s won or placed against lesser types in 21 of 24 starts, which is quite an achievement. However, he’s still searching for the elusive stakes win and has placed second in a trio of overnight stakes at Laurel Park. Nevertheless, the Dale Bennett trainee gets an A-Plus for consistency, and he could be overlooked in the betting.

 

Bal Harbour takes another run at Pirate’s Punch. The multiple graded-placed gelding can be counted on to hit the board, but the last time he entered the winner’s circle was in 2018. The Greg Sacco trainee has been in the money at Monmouth in all seven starts. However, the 6-year-old hasn’t been closer than third in his last five outings.

 

Green Light Go hopes to return to last year’s form when Jimmy Jerkens trained him. This year under Jerry Hollendorfer’s care, the son of Hard Spun hit the board once against lesser runners. Green Light Go is a need-the-lead type, and he’ll have company upfront.

 

War Stopper could keep Green Light Go company as another need-the-lead pacesetter. The Pletcher trainee hasn’t been successful against graded stakes types, although the cut back in distance could help.

 

Croatian is a horse, for course. He’s been in the money in all four starts at Monmouth but takes on tougher company this time around. However, he has tactical speed, and if stablemate Green Light Go keeps the pace honest, Croatian could close for a piece as a live longshot.

 

Informative has hit the board twice since 2020 and appears up against it.

 

Selections

Speed rules at Monmouth and much of the field have similar running styles. When the dust settles, I believe NY Traffic will prevail. He’s faced the likes of Maxfield and Authentic, and there’s no one of that quality in here. West Will Power had a career-best figure at Monmouth last year, and he can settle off the speed. Pirate’s Punch can track the speed from the outside. I’d like to see the old guy win his second Salvador Mile for sentimental reasons, but he’s facing a classier field this year.

#7 NY Traffic (9-5)

#2 West Will Power (6-1)

#10 Pirate’s Punch (5-1)

#1 Galerio (6-1)

Friday, June 4, 2021

Handicapper's Corner: 2021 Belmont Stakes (G1)

  Belmont Stakes Test of Champions


The ThoroFan Handicappers resolutely face the Test of Champions while making their selections for the 2021 Belmont Stakes.

Congratulations to Nick Costa for selecting Medina Spirit to win in the Kentucky Derby, and to Doc Bryan Langlois for picking Roumbauer on top in the Preakness.

Good Luck to everyone! 

 

HANDICAPPER

FIRST

SECOND

THIRD

LONGSHOT

Michael Amo

Essential Quality 

Hot Rod Charlie

Overtook

France Go de Ina

John Caro

Essential Quality 

Known Agenda

Hot Rod Charlie

Bourbonic

Nick Costa

Essential Quality 

Hot Rod Charlie

Rombauer

Overtook

Stuart deVoe

Rombauer

Essential Quality 

Hot Rod Charlie

Overtook

Robert Marks

Rock Your World

Essential Quality 

Hot Rod Charlie

France Go de Ina

Bryan Langlois

Bourbonic

Overtook

Essential Quality 

France Go de Ina

Nicolle Neulist

Known Agenda

Essential Quality 

Rock Your World

Overtook

Laurie Ross

Rock Your World

Essential Quality 

Known Agenda

Overtook