Handicapper's Corner: 2021 Bing Crosby Stakes (G1)

 Vertical Bet the Key to the Bing Crosby Stakes 

By: Robert Marks (@theyreinthegate)

Saturday at 6:36 pm Pacific time (9:36 Eastern) is the 2021 Bing Crosby Grade 1 Stakes over 6 furlongs on the dirt for 3-year old’s and up. The purse is $300,000. This race is named for the original co-owner of Del Mar Racetrack-the Great Singer/Actor Bing Crosby.

 

 

This year’s race features a very competitive field of 9 horses, including the defending Bing Crosby 2020 winner, Collusion Illusion.

 

#2: Vertical Threat (8-1):  This 4-year-old colt also comes off a long layoff but, unlike Collusion Illusion in his last start, was impressive winning going away last November at Mahoning Valley Racetrack. Had a very impressive Speed figure in the win and is a consistently fast colt. He also has a win at Del Mar, winning the Smiling Tiger Stakes in only the third start of his career.  This race seems to set up well for him as there will likely be a fast pace up front, and Vertical Threat can stay close and finish with a strong late pace close.  He is 3-3 at 6 furlongs, and he is our top choice to win.

 

#8 Dr. Schivel (7-2):  This 3-year-old colt has been in the money all five times he raced with three firsts. After winning the Del Mar Futurity last September, there was a long 9-month layoff until he ran and won in an Optional Claiming race at Santa Anita last month. Taking a step up in class but has the Late Pace we think this race requires. Also has Flavien Pratt, who has been red hot at Del Mar this summer so far.

 

#6 Collusion Illusion (4-1): This is your Defending Champ. In the money seven out of nine starts, so definitely likes to compete.  Also, 3-3 at Del Mar. My only worry is the 7-month layoff as this colt has not raced since last December and looked lackluster at that.  Probably worth a bet at 4-1 but will shy away if odds drop any lower, especially with the long layoff and no wins last three outings, might need a race to get back to winning form.

 

Analysis

As for the rest of the field, we will throw out Eight Rings, who look like an underperformer, and we don’t like CZ Rocket, the veteran 7-year-old, as he will be running for the first time without Lasix medication.

Overall, we expect a fast pace with Quick Tempo, Eight Rings and Brickyard Ride, the early pace leaders, setting up the race for Vertical Threat and Dr. Schivel to close into. We think Collusion Illusion gets up for 3rd. 

Our strategy will be keying on Vertical Threat to win and putting him on top of our Exactas and Trifectas.

 

Wagering/Betting Handigambling Bankroll

Here is our $100 worth of betting for the race

Exacta Key Box: 2/8,6  $10 for $40 total

Trifecta: 2/8,6/8,6 ($2 Box for $12 Total)

Win Bet: 6 $48

As always, watch the Board and if at the track watch how the horses look in the Paddock and adjust your bets accordingly. Good Luck!

 

Handicapper's Corner: 2021 Haskell Invitational (G1)

 Familiar Faces in the Haskell

By: Stuart deVoe, ThoroFan

Thoroughbred Racing’s eyes will converge on the New Jersey shore to focus on Monmouth’s TVG.com’s Haskell Stakes this Saturday, which will be contested at 1 1/8^th miles and carry a $1-million purse.  The summer fixture has been selected as one of the Breeder’s Cup Classic’s “Win & You’re In” held this fall at Del Mar in November.  

The Haskell, named after a former president and chairman of Monmouth Park, kicks off the “second half” of the classic races for 3-year-olds in earnest.  Some familiar names participated in the spring classics as well as some new shooters looking to earn their place among the crop’s best.    This race has a rich history where 11 horses have gone on to win Eclipse Awards, 5 of those being named Horse of the Year (Holy Bull ’94, Point Given ’01, Rachel Alexandra ’09, American Pharoah ’15 & Authentic ’20).

The weather forecast for Saturday in Oceanport, NJ, calls for a chance of afternoon thunderstorms, but we will handicap for a fast track…fingers crossed.  A brief look at the field.

 

At first glance, the three horses that participated in the Kentucky Derby jump out as contenders – Mandaloun (post #3), Hot Rod Charlie (post #4), and Midnight Bourbon (post #6).  Sometimes I think that is the case because we all have familiarity with entrants, and they have already proven competitive at the Grade 1 level. 

But one must remember how grueling it is for some 3-year-olds to not only make it to the Derby but then go on in the other Triple Crown events.   We must look at them realistically and measure if they can keep or improve the form they held in May.  We must also see The Haskell as a jumping-off point to the latter half of the year where the short-term goal for these entrants is Saratoga’s Travers Stakes and a long-term goal of The Breeder’s Cup in November. 

There is potentially a new sheriff in town with the rising star Following Sea (post #1), who has been nothing short of dazzling in his last two races, both sprints and his last being for new trainer Todd Pletcher.  Can he compete with the big boys?  Can he carry his speed a distance of ground?   The other three entrants, quite frankly, are taking a shot at glory and don’t look like they can compete for the major awards on Saturday.  But the races are settled on the racetrack, not on our papers. 

    1.    Following Sea (Joel Rosario/Todd Pletcher) – This son of Runhappy looks crazy fast and talented.  He needs to carry that speed two turns for the first time and face proven Grade 1 company – 2 things he has yet to do.  The good news for him is that he rated just off a foe in his last race, has a trainer who excels at stretching out his stock, and Joel Rosario, his pilot, is the best in the country at judging pace.  The question is if you are willing to take a shorter price on a horse doing two things he has yet to do.    Win contender.

 

    2.   Antigravity (David Cohen/Jerry Hollendorfer) – A winner of his last two races comes into The Haskell on the improve.  He is clearly going into the deep water here.  He will be running late and hopes to get a minor slice at best.   Bomb to hit the board

 

    3.   Mandaloun (Florent Geroux/Brad Cox) – The Juddmonte homebred has had a steady diet of Grade 1 and Grade 2 races since January, where he performed admirably.  He will most likely be put up as the winner of the Kentucky Derby after a stellar placing behind the star-crossed Medina Spirit.  Subsequent to his Derby run, Mandaloun earned a hard-fought win over the track in The Pegasus Stakes.  In my opinion, he regressed in that start and will have to find his former form.    Use Underneath.

 

    4.   Hot Rod Charlie (Flavien Prat/Doug O’Neil) – He is fast. He has faced the best in the division and took the mighty Essential Quality to his limit in The Belmont but came up just short in a valiant effort.  This one looks to have the major goals of the summer and fall well within his sights.  Saturday is the start of that campaign.  Win Contender.

 

    5.   Pickin’ Time (Nik Juarez/Kelly Breen) – A hometown boy being bred in the state and trained by Breen who annually excels in New Jersey, showed promise as a two-year-old has only had one start at three.  He was trounced in the off the turf Jersey Derby by 22 lengths.  This looks like they are taking a shot.  We will watch them do so and wish them luck as they will need it.  Toss.

 

    6.   Midnight Bourbon (Paco Lopez/Steve Asmussen) – Like Hot Rod Charlie, this son of Tiznow has been in all the big dances and performed well.  He does seem like he struggles with polishing off his races.  But remember, Steve Asmussen develops his horses better than anyone.  He seems to discover how to improve his horses and does so continuously (see Gun Runner, Rachel, Curlin).  I am not ready to say this one is as good as those legendary horses, but I am certainly aware that Midnight Bourbon has the tools to be a very good, if not a great horse.  Does he turn the corner in this race?    Win Contender.

 

    7.   Basso (Isaac Castillo/Greg Sacco) – A maiden winner with 5 starts under his belt.  He was beaten 9 lengths in his first race of the year by Antigravity, a competitor today.  He will need some luck to make an impact as well. Toss

 

Conclusions & Play

Midnight Bourbon will turn the corner and rise to the top of this division.  At 9-2 morning line, I will use him on top and hope this is the day.  He is tactical enough to be close, battle-tested, and has faced adversity (wide trip in Derby). 

Hot Rod Charlie would not surprise.  I do question how much was taken out him in the grueling Belmont.  I also think he is much better being chased on the lead like he did in both the Louisiana Derby and Belmont.  But he will have his hands full early with  Following Sea from the rail. 

I am looking to “fade” Mandaloun.  With a 2-1 morning line and the fact that he regressed in his last race, he is a bet against for me. 

Following Sea will have company on the front in ‘Charlie.  He may be this good for sure, but he will have to prove it to me before I can back him at the windows.  If ‘ Sea and ‘ Charlie wing it on the front, I see ‘Bourbon in a perfect spot to pick them up.  Perhaps one of the pacesetters hangs on for a piece or one of the bombs gets up.  If Midnight Bourbon polishes off this race, I will celebrate by polishing off some bourbon of my own.

If I were betting $100 on the race, I would structure my wager like so:

$60 win Midnight Bourbon

$30 exacta Midnight Bourbon/Hot Rod Charlie

$10 exacta Midnight Bourbon/ Antigravity