Who Gets the Golden Egg in the Mother Goose?
By: Laurie Ross, Pedigree Power
The $300,000 Mother Goose Stakes (G2) brings together eleven 3-year-old fillies Saturday at Belmont Park.
The 1 1/16 miles event is carded as race nine with a 3:43 PM ET post time. Cotillion winner Bodacious Bay heads the field, while unbeaten Intrepids Fantasy gets her first stakes test.
Let’s review the most likely board hitters.
7. Bodacious Bay (5-2) stalked the Cotillion pace before drawing off by 3 1/4 lengths over Always a Runner, with Measure third. Her 98 Brisnet speed figure followed a 99 when second in the Monmouth Oaks, giving her the two best figures in this field. The Saffie Joseph Jr. trainee has never finished worse than second in five starts and can sit behind the inside speed. She worked a bullet half in :47 at the Saratoga training track on Oct. 25, the same move she made a week before the Cotillion which suggests she’s ready to pick up where she left off. Win Contender.
3. Tap to Open (5-1) took the scenic route in the Cotillion, racing wide before finishing fourth, 8 1/2 lengths behind Bodacious Bay. The Brad Cox trainee previously fought back to win the Cathryn Sophia with a 95 speed figure over good footing. Her best fast-track figure is 91, so she needs to improve to catch Bodacious Bay. She has enough speed to hold a position, but her Cotillion effort suggests she can also settle behind the leaders. Win Contender.
2. Answered Prayers (8-1) is the most consistent filly in the field and has finished first or second in five of six starts, including all four tries at this distance. She was second-best to Consequent in the Seneca Overnight Stakes after winning a Saratoga allowance with a 95 speed figure. The Bill Mott trainee should save ground from her inside post and let the speedier fillies do the early work. She fired a sharp half in :47 2/5 at Churchill on Oct. 30, second-best of 90, which is encouraging after seven weeks away. Exotics.
10. Intrepids Fantasy (8-1) has won all three starts at Delaware by a combined 23 1/2 lengths, improving her speed figures from 73 to 92 to 96. Her latest romp came over muddy footing, but she earned the 92 on a fast track after sitting just behind the leaders. That versatility could come in handy from an outside post. The Gary Capuano trainee leaves Delaware and faces stakes company for the first time. She has the figures to belong, but this bunch should make her work harder than her last two fields did. Exotics.
1. Cognition (9-2) drew off by 4 lengths at Keeneland in her first start in more than a year. The Chad Brown trainee has the rail and Flavien Prat, a dangerous combination on a strip that has favored speed. Brown has won three of the last seven runnings of this race. She stretches out to two turns for the first time, and her one-turn figure needs to improve. Exotics.
11. Run Wild (15-1) has won her last two dirt routes and earned a field-best 107 late pace rating at Laurel. Her early pace ratings were only 69 and 76, so she had plenty left for the finish. The Miguel Clement trainee faces a substantial class hike from allowance company, and the outside post won’t make the trip easier. She can collect a minor award if the leaders get carried away. Exotics Longshot.
Analysis
Previous Starts: Thirteen of the last 16 Mother Goose winners finished third or better last out, and five won their final prep.
Run Style: Pace pressers are the most successful with eight wins. Closers won five and pacesetters three.
Favorites: Seven favorites have won since 2009, and second choices won six more. Only three winners came from outside the top two choices.
Post Position: Posts 1 through 3 produced 11 of the 16 winners. Nobody has won from post 7 or wider, though most of those fields were small.
The pace projects quick early fractions. Cognition has the rail and the best early figure, and Intrepids Fantasy has to hustle from post 10 to keep up. Belmont's dirt routes have been kind to speed this meet, but a duel up front should set up for a presser.
Bodacious Bay is the filly to beat. She owns the top figures in the field and is training the same way she did before the Cotillion. She won't be much of a price at 5-2, but she's the most likely winner.
Tap to Open gets a better post for Cox and Manuel Franco. She's the one most likely to make Bodacious Bay work for it, and 5-1 is a fair price for a filly who was compromised by a wide trip last time.
Answered Prayers will be sitting in the pocket waiting for the speed to come back. At 8-1, she's the value play for the exotics.
Intrepids Fantasy and Cognition bring the speed. One of them could hang on for a piece. Cognition is short at 9-2 for a filly stretching out off one start this year, so Intrepids Fantasy at 8-1 is the better bet.
Selections
7. Bodacious Bay (5-2)
3. Tap to Open (5-1)
2. Answered Prayers (8-1)
10. Intrepids Fantasy (8-1)
