Handicapper's Corner: 2019 Woodward Stakes (G1)

Older Horses Shine in Woodward Stakes

By: The Turk

Preservationist with J. Alvarado up; Photo by Coglianese/Joe Labozzetta

Welcome friends to The Turk and the Little Turk Blog, rapidly completing our tenth full year of providing horse racing analysis and handicapping advice to readers who never asked for it.  

I'd like to thank the good people at The Thorofan for asking me to share my thoughts with you today on The Woodward, a Grade 1 dirt affair over what should be a fast Saratoga course. 

Readers of the Turk will note that I have not been very active in horse racing this year.  Quite frankly, I considered quitting The Turk and leaving the sport entirely.  I'm tired of the constant ways that this sport finds to turn off the fans, the bettors, the lack of any real vision, the criticism of anyone that offers any real vision, and then the tracks themselves: tone deaf, reactionary, caring only about themselves.  Musicians playing on the deck of the Titanic, except the Titanic sank years ago.  

This is not the grand boat it was.  Look at the empty seats behind Preservationist at Belmont as he enters the win circle.  Visit tracks most days of the week, you already know what I mean.  

The Turk is talking to the choir, and its a small choir.  I love the sport, as anyone reading this does to.  Try as much as I have tried in 10 plus years and I have only been able to grow a few new casual fans of the game.  It's disheartening.  

I still have my loves: Kentucky Downs is opening for its short meet (5 dates beginning tomorrow through September 12), Arlington is still a palace and sooner or later CDI will let it go for someone to try to make it right, and the horses themselves, the older vets grinding out a living.  

Try as humans do to screw things up, the horses are why I won't quit the sport. 


 Let's get after this handicap!  

 Let's start with a bit of light video review.  

The Whitney G1 SAR:  1 1/8 Miles/Fast Dirt/August 3  


 The Alydar $100K SAR ; 1 1/8 Miles/Fast Dirt/August 2  



The Gold Cup Santa Anita: 1 1/4/Fast Dirt/27 May  


The Pacific Classic G1 Del Mar; 1 1/4 Miles/Fast Dirt/17 August  

I'm pretty torn on this race.  There is not a ton of early speed, perhaps enough for the late chargers to take an aim at, but the pace is a bit foggy to me.  I'll assume that Mr. Buff, Tom's d'Etat, and Preservationist will strike the lead early.  

By my base handicap you have already surmised that Yosida (Jpn) and Preservationist have the best opportunity to be there at the wire, with  Tom's d'Etat, Vino Rosso, Mongolian Groom and Mr. Buff moving in different direction in the last 1/8 of a mile, some advancing some retreating.  I think I just summed up every horse race that's ever been run over grass!  My apologies. 

I think I ultimately see Yosida's class as what separates him from everyone else by a head or so.  The 5 YO $2.3 MM earner is winless in 2019 but possibly just getting going after the grueling Dubai trip, with a very solid Whitney run.  2 of 2 in the money at Saratoga including last year's Woodward.  1 win in 5 dirt starts.

 Preservationist is my kinda horse, 6 YO, out of Arch, with only 9 career starts.  5 wins in last 7 starts, 5 of 6 in the money over fast dirt. Trainer Jerkens is 29% in Graded Stakes over past rolling year, 21% over Dirt and 24% routes.  Jerkens/Junior Alvarado 25% winners in 16 SAR starts. 

Out of my group of 4 possible Place/Show horses, I'm intrigued by Mongolian Groom.  The numbers tell me I shouldn't be:  0 wins in 8 dirt starts, shipping from California, no SAR starts, no wins at distance, 2 wins in last 14 starts, $370,000 earnings in 14 starts, Trainer Ganbat 0% Graded Stakes in 10 tries rolling year.  Why did they ship?  Current form off Grade 2 San Diego and 2 weeks back Pacific Classic not too shabby.  I like the taking a swing approach.  It's not like they shipped to a County Fair, they shipped to Saratoga.  I dig the effort. 

 Vino Rosso, the 4 YO Curlin, has got the class and 2 straight triple digit Beyers, including a saavy Pletcher move to put him in a weak Gold Cup.  Ran a solid Whitney. Blinkers off, something Pletcher wins 24% of the time in 25 tries. Training good.  Nothing to dislike, but this is gambling and The Turk is unlike a public/paid handicapper who doesn't want to look bad and just tells you what he thinks.  Turk thinks Vino Rosso is an OK horse, $1.3 MM earner who is winless at SAR and incredibly has never Placed. 

 Tom's d' Etat is also very interesting and I consider him a good priced win candidate.  4-1 ML, I think that goes towards 3-1 but I'd like to see it head towards 5-1 to get really excited.  3 of 3 at SAR, 8 of 8 in the money on fast dirt and 4 of 5 in the money at the distance.  The 6 year old was a $100,000 Smart Stike who only has 13 starts.  5 of last 7 in the money with 3 wins. 

I'm thinking exacta's will be my play and I'm watching the price on Tom d'Etat to see if I include him in win portions of the bet. 

Have fun with it friends! 

Turk Out

Handicapper's Corner: 2019 Travers Stakes (G1)

Travers Stakes: ThoroFan 'Cappers Consensus 

The 2019 Travers Stakes attracted a dozen 3-year-old colts and geldings who will travel 1 1/4-miles over Saratoga’s main track.

Saratoga is known as the graveyard of favorites. This particularly holds true for the Travers Stakes (G1). Four Triple Crown winners have run in the race, but only one, Whirlaway, was victorious. He beat two rivals. 

The last time the favorite won the “Midsummer Derby” was in 2011, although Alpha, the 2012 favorite, dead-heated with a 33-1 longshot. 

Speaking of longshots, the Travers can be a tough race to handicap, but the returns are huge, with double-digit payouts on the winner. 

Post time for the Travers Stakes is set for 5:44 p.m. ET Saturday. The main track will be fast, and no rain is in the forecast.

The collective minds of the ThoroFan Handicappers offer their choices for first through third place and our best longshot bombs. Last year, Nicolle Neulist was the only one who chose Catholic Boy as the winner.

Good Luck to everyone!

HANDICAPPER	FIRST	SECOND	THIRD	LONGSHOT
Michael Amo	Tacitus	Code of Honor	Mucho Gusto	Laughing Fox
John Caro	Code of Honor	Mucho Gusto	Highest Honors	Owendale
Nick Costa	Code of Honor	Tacitus	Mucho Gusto	Lookin at Bikinis
Robert Marks	Tax	Mucho Gusto	Lookin at Bikinis	Scars are Cool
Michael Mills	Code of Honor	Tacitus	Owendale	Laughing Fox
Nicolle Neulist	Tacitus	Tax	Highest Honors	Scars are Cool
Laurie Ross	Highest Honors	Tacitus	Tax	Owendale

   

Handicapper's Corner: 2019 Pacific Classic (G1)

A Logical Long Shot in the Pacific Classic

By: Robert Marks (@theyreinthegate)

Saturday at 6:35 pm Pacific time (9:35 Eastern) is the Grade 1 2019 TVG Pacific Classic for 3-year old’s and Up. The purse is $1,000,000. The distance is 1 1/4 miles on the Dirt Track.

This is the premier race for the summer meet at Del Mar Racetrack. You will see some of these horses in the Breeders’ Cup Classic later this fall so this is a key race on the way to the BC Classic.  This is also a “win and you’re in” qualifier for the BC Classic.

This year, the 29th edition of the race has a full field of 10 entries.

#6 Tenfold (8-1)  Mike Smith climbs aboard Tenfold for the first time. Mr. Smith has won this race 5 times (tied with Garret Gomez for most wins). How often do you get Mike Smith and 8-1 morning line odds?  This 4 year old was sired by Curlin (also trained by Asmussen). He comes off a lackluster 9th in the Stephen Clark at Churchill but won 2 back in the Grade 3 Pimlico Special.  Has a favorable post for his running style which is a stalking type. If he gets a nice pace to close into, I like Big Money Mike coming down the stretch for the upset win here.

#2 Quip (7-2)  Ran 2nd to Seeking the Soul in the Stephen Foster in June at Churchill. Before that he won the Oaklawn Handicap. He seems to be in perfect form and had a very high speed figure in the Stephen Foster. I look for this horse to be one of the early pack leaders, if not the leader, and holding out for the place position at the finish line. Jockey Florent Geroux won the 2017 BC Classic on this track aboard Gun Runner.

#7 Seeking the Soul (3-1) This 6 year old horse is your Morning Line Favorite. If this was Churchill Downs, where he has won 3 stakes races, we would jump on board with a big win bet, but as he ships west to Del Mar, our win money will go to better valve on Tenfold. Seeking the Soul is in top form, coming off a closing win in the Stephen Foster at Churchill. Look for him to be closing again, trying to pass the early leaders in the last ¼ mile. We look for a bit of a bounce and expect a 3rd or 4th place effort for this Dallas Stewart trained entry. 

Overall, we expect a fast pace with Quip, Pavel and Draft Pick going early setting up the race for closers Tenfold and Seeking the Soul.

Our strategy will be keying on Tenfold to win and putting him on top of our Exacta’s and Trifecta’s.

Wagering/Betting Handigambling Bankroll

Here is our $100 worth of betting for the race

Exacta Key Box $10:  6/2,7  = $40

Trifecta Box $5:  6/2,7/2,7 = $10

Win Bet $50: 6 = $50

As always, watch the Board and if at the track watch how the horses look in the Paddock and adjust your bets accordingly. Good Luck!

 

Handicapper's Corner: 2019 Alabama Stakes (G1)

Alabama Stakes May Be a Family Affair

By: Michael Amo, ThoroFan Chairman

With most of the Saratoga meeting behind us, fans are ready for the crescendo. It begins this weekend with the Alabama Stakes (GI). It continues next weekend with six grade one races including the meetings franchise race the Travers Stakes (GI). The meet closes out in two weeks with the premier races for 2-year-olds --- Spinaway (GI) for fillies on Sunday and the Hopeful (GI) for colts on Monday and the Woodward Stakes (GI) on Saturday, August 31, 2019. Although in days the end is near, in races the excitement is just beginning at the SPA. 

The Alabama Stakes (GI) is a race for 3-year-old fillies that will test their endurance ability as they traverse the 10-furlong challenge. It was first run in 1872 with this year being its 148th anniversary. However, it has only actually been run for 136 times, but who is counting. 

This prestigious race always draws a stellar and competitive field. Morning Line odds suggest the race is between two – Dunbar Road (8/5) and Point of Honor (5/2). Here is the field:

1.      Dunbar Road (Quality Road) comes into the race with a win in the Mother Goose Stakes (II) at Belmont Park and boasting a record of 3 wins in 4 attempts where she has been the post time favorite in all starts. The same is expected today. With the top early speed to her immediate right she may have trip problems. 

2.      Lady Apple ( Curlin) is the pace setter. She can gobble up the first quarter in under 22 seconds. If the Saratoga tracks remains fast, she may be hard to catch. Ulele from the 6th gate may be the one to try to stay with her. Not the likely winner, but the combination of Asmussen and Santana can be dangerous.

3.      Afleet Destiny (Hard Spun) has only one win in 12 attempts. A major class jump for this filly that is adequately reflected in her Morning Line odds of 30-1.

4.      Champagne Anyone (Street Sense) has been regressing of late, but her works suggest this may be a new day for trainer Ian Wilkes and his son-in-law, jockey Chris Landeros. Big if!

5.      Street Band (Istan) is partially owned and trained by Larry Jones who also bred the filly. This family affair will be dangerous. She retains her jockey Sophie Doyle who has put her in the Winner’s Circle 3 times out of 8 attempts. On Saturday she could hit the 50% mark.

6.      Ulele ( Candy Ride) is one that is regularly in the mix at the wire. Brad Cox goes back to jockey, Rosario, who gave a scare to Point of Honor in the Black-Eyed Susan (GII). She was handled in the Iowa Oaks by Lady Apple. Could happen again; not a good sign.

7.      Point of Honor (Curlin) had a solid performance in the Coaching Club American Oaks (GI) over the Saratoga racing surfaces and may be ready to move up to the Winner’s Circle. Castellano rides for trainer Weaver who seems to struggling at the Spa in graded stakes performances. Clearly a top contender, if she brings her “A Game”. Will she?

8.      Off Topic (Street Sense) is not at the top of her game. She shocked the Saratoga fans by capturing the Show Spot at 31.25-1 odds in the Coaching Club American Oaks. Not likely to improve enough to have a repeat performance in the Alabama Stakes.

9.      Kelsey’ Cross (Anthony’s Cross) her best speed rating is below that of others. Ran well at 1 3/16 miles in the Saratoga Oaks with 3rd place finish at 21.50-1 odds. Has had a different jockey in all his starts. Rajiv Maragh tries to make a difference in her 6th start. Unlikely to show much more.

The pace will be honest unless Lady Apple is left alone on the lead. If Rosario sends Ulele out after her, the battle in the stretch will be exciting. The battle at the 1/16th pole should be among Street Band, Point of Honor, Dunbar Road and Lady Apple.

Selections

Here is how I see the race finishing:

1.      Street Band (#5)

2.      Dunbar Road (#1)

3.      Lady Apple (#2)

4.      Point of Honor (#7)

5.      Champagne Anyone (#4—just in case)

Handigamble

$2 Trifecta Box – (#1,#2,#5 and #7) --$48.00

$.10 Superfecta- (#1,#2,#4,#5 and #7) --$12

$40 to place on Street Band (#5) -----$40.00

                                             $100.00

Good Luck but keep the day job.