Friday, August 2, 2019

Handicapper's Corner: 2019 Test Stakes (G1)

A Tough Test

By: Nick Costa, Trackside with Trackman



Summer racing continues at the “Spa’ with the Test Stakes, featuring three-year old fillies, coming our way this Saturday from Saratoga Racecourse. A competitive field of seven runners will line up on the dirt track and race seven furlongs for the winner's share of the $500,000 purse. An automatic bid to this year’s Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint is on the line.






This intriguing Grade 1 event features Serengeti Empress, the Kentucky Oaks winner, Bellafina, a six-time graded stakes winner, Covfefe, a rising star who set a track record for six-furlongs at Pimlico in May and Royal Charlotte, an undefeated filly who hails from the barn of Chad Brown, the meets leading trainer. The Test is carded as race 8 on Saratoga’s stacked program. Post time is slated for 5:06 PM.



From the rail out, let's take a brief glance at all seven entrants.


PP- Horse – Jockey/Trainer – ML odds
1 - Serengeti Empress – Jose Ortiz/Tom Amoss: 7-2 - She made her second lifetime start here last summer as a juvenile, finishing fourth. Since then she’s won multiple graded stakes, including the G2 Rachel Alexandra to kick off her sophomore season, before faltering in G2 Fairgrounds Oaks, where she bled and was vanned off. She recovered from that incident to post a front-running score in the G1 Kentucky Oaks. In the G1 Acorn Stakes, she set a fast pace while under constant pressure, but held for a valiant second behind a winner who won in stakes-record time.

2 - Bellafina – Flavien Prat/Simon Callaghan: 2-1 - California-based runner has won six graded stakes in the last year, making her one of the country’s top 3-year-old fillies. She boasts 7 of 9 in-the-money finishes. The two times she didn’t earn a top three placing was when she raced away from the West Coast. She failed as the favorite in the Kentucky Oaks and the BC Juvenile Fillies, both events over the Churchill Downs surface. She has hasn’t raced since her Oaks effort, but has trained energetically leading up to this spot.

3 - Covfefe – Joel Rosario/Brad Cox: 5-2 - Started off her sophomore year with consecutive wins, including the six-furlong G3 Miss Preakness Stakes by 8 ½-lengths in track record time two starts back, before suffering her first loss of 2019 when third in an overnight stake when facing her elders at Churchill last time out. She set a swift pace in that event before giving way.

4 - Trenchtown Cat – Irad Ortiz/Rohan Crichton: 12-1 - South Florida invader has earned a couple of minor stakes victories on her short but impressive resume, as she searches for her first graded stakes win. In her last start, she produced a solid effort when runner-up in the G2 Princess Rooney.

5 - Royal Charlotte – Javier Castellano/Chad Brown: 3-1 - Undefeated grey filly has won four times at four different tracks this year. Three of her victories were decisive off the pace scores, while other win came after a race long duel where she gamely prevailed by a neck. She has done everything asked of her thus far, and this Grade 1 audition is the next logical step for this undefeated gal.

6 - Please Flatter Me – John Velazquez/Mark Reid: 15-1 - Filly has multiple wins against ungraded stakes competition, and although she was no match for the record breaking, runaway winner in the G3 Miss Preakness stakes a couple of starts back, this one did manage a credible second-place finish in that event.

7 - Jeltrin – Luis Saez/Alexis Delgado: 20-1 - Her claim to fame was a 51-1 upset win in the G2 Davona Dale over reigning two-year old champion, Jaywalk, when that one was returning off a four-month layoff. Has not displayed that type of winning form since, nor has the betting public been supportive in subsequent starts. She was 59-1 in the Kentucky Oaks (9th) and 46-1 in the Acorn (3rd). Most recently in the Mother Goose, she was co-second choice at 7-1 behind a heavy favorite.  

ANALYSIS: Practically the entire field of fillies like to race on, or just off the lead, and six of the seven ladies show at least one wire-to-wire score. Three runners in the field boast wins at the tricky seven-furlong distance, having a combined 5 for 5 record. Something is sure to give.
The pace should be extremely hot and that could benefit Royal Charlotte in this spot. She’s proven she can come from off the pace, and gets my call here. Bellafina and Serengeti Empress hold a class edge over the others and both have won at the distance. The former has displayed versatility in terms of running style, a trait that could prove useful against this speedy group. The latter likes to motor on the front end. If she takes command early, she could prove best of the early speed and hold late like she did in her Oaks win.

Handigambling
$60 win on Royal Charlotte and play her in $10 exacta boxes with Bellafina and Serengeti Empress.

Good luck and, as always, enjoy the race.

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