Friday, August 16, 2019

Handicapper's Corner: 2019 Alabama Stakes (G1)

Alabama Stakes May Be a Family Affair

By: Michael Amo, ThoroFan Chairman



With most of the Saratoga meeting behind us, fans are ready for the crescendo. It begins this weekend with the Alabama Stakes (GI). It continues next weekend with six grade one races including the meetings franchise race the Travers Stakes (GI). The meet closes out in two weeks with the premier races for 2-year-olds --- Spinaway (GI) for fillies on Sunday and the Hopeful (GI) for colts on Monday and the Woodward Stakes (GI) on Saturday, August 31, 2019. Although in days the end is near, in races the excitement is just beginning at the SPA. 

The Alabama Stakes (GI) is a race for 3-year-old fillies that will test their endurance ability as they traverse the 10-furlong challenge. It was first run in 1872 with this year being its 148th anniversary. However, it has only actually been run for 136 times, but who is counting. 

This prestigious race always draws a stellar and competitive field. Morning Line odds suggest the race is between two – Dunbar Road (8/5) and Point of Honor (5/2). Here is the field:




1.      Dunbar Road (Quality Road) comes into the race with a win in the Mother Goose Stakes (II) at Belmont Park and boasting a record of 3 wins in 4 attempts where she has been the post time favorite in all starts. The same is expected today. With the top early speed to her immediate right she may have trip problems. 

2.      Lady Apple ( Curlin) is the pace setter. She can gobble up the first quarter in under 22 seconds. If the Saratoga tracks remains fast, she may be hard to catch. Ulele from the 6th gate may be the one to try to stay with her. Not the likely winner, but the combination of Asmussen and Santana can be dangerous.

3.      Afleet Destiny (Hard Spun) has only one win in 12 attempts. A major class jump for this filly that is adequately reflected in her Morning Line odds of 30-1.

4.      Champagne Anyone (Street Sense) has been regressing of late, but her works suggest this may be a new day for trainer Ian Wilkes and his son-in-law, jockey Chris Landeros. Big if!

5.      Street Band (Istan) is partially owned and trained by Larry Jones who also bred the filly. This family affair will be dangerous. She retains her jockey Sophie Doyle who has put her in the Winner’s Circle 3 times out of 8 attempts. On Saturday she could hit the 50% mark.

6.      Ulele ( Candy Ride) is one that is regularly in the mix at the wire. Brad Cox goes back to jockey, Rosario, who gave a scare to Point of Honor in the Black-Eyed Susan (GII). She was handled in the Iowa Oaks by Lady Apple. Could happen again; not a good sign.

7.      Point of Honor (Curlin) had a solid performance in the Coaching Club American Oaks (GI) over the Saratoga racing surfaces and may be ready to move up to the Winner’s Circle. Castellano rides for trainer Weaver who seems to struggling at the Spa in graded stakes performances. Clearly a top contender, if she brings her “A Game”. Will she?

8.      Off Topic (Street Sense) is not at the top of her game. She shocked the Saratoga fans by capturing the Show Spot at 31.25-1 odds in the Coaching Club American Oaks. Not likely to improve enough to have a repeat performance in the Alabama Stakes.

9.      Kelsey’ Cross (Anthony’s Cross) her best speed rating is below that of others. Ran well at 1 3/16 miles in the Saratoga Oaks with 3rd place finish at 21.50-1 odds. Has had a different jockey in all his starts. Rajiv Maragh tries to make a difference in her 6th start. Unlikely to show much more.


The pace will be honest unless Lady Apple is left alone on the lead. If Rosario sends Ulele out after her, the battle in the stretch will be exciting. The battle at the 1/16th pole should be among Street Band, Point of Honor, Dunbar Road and Lady Apple.

Selections
Here is how I see the race finishing:
1.      Street Band (#5)
2.      Dunbar Road (#1)
3.      Lady Apple (#2)
4.      Point of Honor (#7)
5.      Champagne Anyone (#4—just in case)

Handigamble
$2 Trifecta Box – (#1,#2,#5 and #7) --$48.00
$.10 Superfecta- (#1,#2,#4,#5 and #7) --$12
$40 to place on Street Band (#5) -----$40.00
                                             $100.00

Good Luck but keep the day job.

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