Handicapper's Corner: 2026 D. Wayne Lukas Stakes (G2)

 

Tactical Speed Meets Class in the D. Wayne Lukas Stakes 

By: Nick Costa, Trackside with Trackman

Hello there, racing fans. This week’s ThoroFan Race of the Week comes from the ‘Great Race Place’, Santa Anita Park, with the running of the Grade 2 D. Wayne Lukas Stakes. Formerly known as the Santa Monica Stakes, this seven-furlong contest was renamed in honor of the legendary Hall of Fame trainer.

This $200,000 Grade 2 event brings together four-year-old and up fillies and mares from seven different Southern California barns, setting the stage for a competitive and well-matched field. Carded as race 6 of 9, post time is 3:05 PM PT. 

At this tricky distance, expect an exciting mix of early pace and tactical maneuvering, as the top female runners sort themselves out down the Santa Anita stretch.

Let's review the field.

ANALYSIS:

Breaking down the field, one mare clearly stands out, and that’s Splendora. She’s the class of the race on paper, owns the strongest overall figures, and has already proven she fits this seven-furlong distance. Splendora doesn’t need the lead, can sit just off the pace, and has the kind of finishing kick that usually gets the job done in races like this. She’s the one they all have to beat.

Behind her, there’s a solid group of mares who make sense underneath. Formula Rossa is a consistent type who shows up every time and figures to be involved late. Simply Joking has enough tactical speed to stay close early and grind her way into the exotics. No Bad Beats is an improving four-year-old who should be part of the early flow and could hang around for a share if she handles the class jump. Irina’s Charm is lightly raced with upside and makes her second start off the layoff, a spot where improvement is possible, though this is a tougher assignment.

As for the others, Me and Molly McGee and Lemon Muffin appear to be up against it on both class and figures and would need significant improvement to factor in.

From a race shape standpoint, expect an honest but controlled pace. This doesn’t look like a meltdown type of race, which should favor mares with tactical speed and proven class. That plays directly into the hands of Splendora, who should get a very comfortable trip sitting just off the leaders before making her move, turning for home.

WAGERING:

Splendora is a strong win candidate. Exactas can be built around her over Formula Rossa and Simply Joking, and for those playing the superfecta, keying Splendora on top with Formula Rossa, Simply Joking, No Bad Beats, and Irina’s Charm underneath makes the most sense. Keep it tight, trust the class, and don’t over complicate it. Good luck, and as always, enjoy the race!!

 

Handicapper's Corner: 2025 Holy Bull Stakes (G3)

  

Holy Bull Stakes Picks and Plays

 By: John Caro, ThoroFan Handicapper

Meanwhile back in Florida at Gulfstream…where the weather is not as nice as it should be but there is power and phone service…the weather may bring in a little rain and wind for the race, 24% and a high of 66°.

There are 9 runners listed in Saturday’s Holy Bull Stakes (G3) at 1 1/16 miles, however the Baffert entry, Buetane and will not be joining in due to massive nationwide transportation issues and Game for It is expected to scratch and enter the Sam F. Davis Stakes next Saturday.

We have a wide variety of runners from elsewhere and locals who are ready to race. Several have faced stakes company; However, only three have gone the distance with two of those winning, and the remainder have gone 7 furlongs or shorter with the exception of one.

I favor those that have gone a route of ground and have been working well since their time off the track. Although speed figures tell a story they are sometimes overthought and pace may play a bigger role, particularly since we're looking at horses who have run at six different tracks with varying field sizes.

The $275,000 Grade 3 Holy Bull begins the first of three tests for Derby points contested at Gulfstream, and is spotlighted as the finale, race 12, with a 5:45 PM post time. Let’s review the field.

1. Incredibolt – Mott, R/Torres  - The winner of the Street Sense at Churchill in October at 1 1/16 miles by 1 3/4 lengths, won his prior race going a mile. He's put in 6 works, including a bullet during his 97 days off. He's a late closer, which for the projected pace might set him up for good things.This Bolt d’Or colt is well tested, progression is excellent and that makes him a win or ITM contender.

2. Roger That Dana -  Ramirez/Rojas  - Ramirez has been successful here but lacks graded stakes experience. This ridgling has stakes experience in a local restricted race and placed third by 10 going 1 1/16 miles. His next out he finished second by 6 3/4 lengths going a mile in the Mucho Macho Man Stakes. His speed progression and pace show no late punch to get it done. Bottom of the exotics.

3. Project Ace – Romans/Lanerie – This War of Will colt has run 1 1/16 miles twice, at Keeneland for second by a nose and won by a head at Churchill last out. He's been ITM in all three starts. For those that remember War of Will, he won two major stakes in Louisiana, had a seventh place finish in the Derby and then won the Preakness. Good bloodlines. He's had 6 works coming into the race during his 10 weeks away, his speed and pace progression is good and he likes to close late to the party but, if he stays closer to the pace (and he does have the breeding for that) he will be ITM and I suggest he is a true longshot for this contest.

4. Global Aviator - Crichton/Bravo – He broke his maiden here in his only race going 6 furlongs at high speed, rolling out 5 wide to win by a neck. Nice moving colt from a son of Curlin and a Quality Road winning mare. I expect he will stretch out well and may be close at the end. ITM in the exotics.

5. Cannoner - Cox/Ortiz, I – Highly regarded and the connections speak loudly. He's contended on the lead in both of his starts, and I expect he will be the pace of the race given his speed and pace figures.  He's not gone a route but he's from Into Mischief and likely can handle the distance after his 7 furlong race against 11 others winning by 7+. Dangerous contender, win contender and ITM finisher.

6. Buetane – Sratched

7. Nearly – Pletcher/Velasquez  - Another set of stellar connections. With two wins over this track winning by 9+ and 5 respectively, he looks like the most likely winner of these even without a route behind him. His tracking style and highest late pace figure make him my top contender.

8. Bravaro – Joseph/Gaffalione  - This son of Upstart is two for two at Aqueduct and has tracked from midpack to finish well against the state breds in the Sleepy Hollow. He's had 98 days to prep for this race with 7 works including a bullet in late December and three maintenance works in January.  He's ready to run. Gaffalione is a very savvy jockey and he is pace aware. This is the best longshot of the bunch today.

9. Game for It – Summers/Alvarado  - is expected to scratch. He's had one race at Aqueduct in a 6 furlong dash and the finish time, speed and pace were not on par with others in this field. There nice works in January including a bullet but I don't think he is ready for his company here on race day. Bottom of any exotics.

The Play

Frankly, I have a couple of front running leaders in the field in the 5 and 7. I expect they will do their part to set a pace. And Gulfstream is known to be a fast track. Maybe those two can cancel the others at 2/1 and 9/5 but I'm hopeful that others will track well and run them to ground.

Handigambling $100 Menu… My plays are:

$2 Exacta  All with 3 and 8  $28 (or $24 if the 9 is a scratch)

$.50 Trifecta  1,8 with 1,8,3,5,7 with All $24 (or $20 if the 9 is a scratch)

$1 Trifecta 1,3,5,7,8 with 1,8 with All  $48 (or $40 if the 9 is a scratch)

Good luck and stay warm…

If the weather goes wet, none have proven on a wet track but 7,5,8 may have the best chances

Handicapper's Corner: 2025 Pegasus World Cup Invitational (G1)

 

Pegasus World Cup: Youth vs. Experience

By: Laurie Ross, Pedigree Power

Saturday’s $3 million Grade 1 Pegasus World Cup Invitational assembles a compelling mix of lightly raced emerging talent and seasoned veterans, anchored by defending champion White Abarrio.

A full field of 12 will go to the post, including Lightning Tones, who drew in from the also-eligible list after Madaket Road scratched. The group will tackle 1 1/8 miles around the Gulfstream Park oval, closing out a blockbuster 13-race program highlighted by six additional graded stakes. Post time for the Pegasus is 5:39 PM ET.

Let’s review the field: 

Disco Time (8-5) missed last year’s Derby trail due to injury but returned in strong fashion, posting dominant victories in the St. Louis Derby and the listed Dwyer, once a Grade 1 and later a Grade 2. Granted, the competition he defeated falls short of what he meets here, but the final times were legitimate, particularly his 9 3/4-length Dwyer score in 1:33.86, capped by a sharp 12.75 final furlong while cruising home under a hand ride.

Disco Time stretches out to 1 1/8 miles for the first time, though his pedigree, by Not This Time out of multiple stakes winner Disco Chick (Jump Start), suggests the distance won’t be an issue. Adding confidence, his half-brother Bright Spark (Arrogate) won at 1 3/16 miles. Brad Cox tightened the screws with three quick five-furlong breezes at Payson Park. Contender.

 British Isles (20-1) a three-time winner from 22 starts, is more familiar with minor awards than trips to the winner’s circle. After spending much of his career on turf, the Richard Baltas trainee pushed Nevada Beach to the wire in the Native Diver (G3), missing by just a half-length, with a solid 12.43 final furlong for 1 1/8 miles. On paper, that effort looks appealing, until you dig deeper.

British Isles has historically struggled away from California. Yes, he won once at Keeneland, but that came during his second consecutive start there. The Justify colt also delivered the best race of his career in the Native Diver, earning a career-best 105 Brisnet figure and a 107 late pace number, ten points higher than any prior effort. He also makes his first start for a new barn. Maybe he surprises, but there are too many red flags. Pass.

Full Serrano (12-1) has been ultra-consistent since arriving in California, finishing first or second in every start and going off at 4-1 in the Breeders’ Cup Mile. That day, he was cooked after chasing Citizen Bull’s blistering opening quarter in 21.74 and a 44.96 half, fading to fifth.

Previously, the John Sadler trainee finished second to Nevada Beach in the 1 1/8-mile Goodwood, earning a 102 Brisnet rating and a career-best 106 late pace figure, and narrowly missed in the Laffit Pincay Jr. Stakes behind Dirt Mile winner Nysos. He finds softer company here and runs well off a layoff. Contender.

 The 6-year-old Banishing (20-1) flashed quality last spring when he missed by a neck to Mindframe in the Churchill Downs (G1). He followed with wins against lesser company and had a legitimate excuse in the Lukas Classic, where he was squeezed so tightly between Disarm and Mystic Dan that Tyler Gaffalione was forced to steady. Surprising there was no inquiry, but that’s racing.

After a poor start in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint, Banishing rebounded with a runner-up finish in another sprint. Bred to relish added distance and always competitive, he’s not top-tier but merits consideration in longshot exotics.

 With rare exceptions, Skippylongstocking (15-1) shows up every time. Still holding his own at age seven, he’s traded punches with many of these rivals and makes his fourth Pegasus appearance for Saffie Joseph Jr. After finally hitting the board last year, a similar exotics result feels likely.

 Tappan Street (6-1) has clearly rebounded from the injury that derailed his Triple Crown bid. The Brad Cox trainee owns the distinction of being the only horse to defeat Sovereignty last year. Following a workmanlike effort against optional claimers, he continued to train forwardly at Payson Park and should improve off that return. Contender.

Poster (20-1) hasn’t beaten much but took a step forward in the Harlan’s Holiday (G3) against Skippylongstocking. Poster traveled wide while Skippylongstocking enjoyed a ground-saving trip, and despite the effort, the veteran always had him measured. If they went around again, the result likely wouldn’t change. Eoin Harty adds blinkers in search of improvement. Longshot exotics.

Captain Cook (15-1) captured the Withers at 1 1/8 miles against lesser company but has struggled to sustain momentum around two turns otherwise. Second in back-to-back sprints in his first two starts for Todd Pletcher, he showed ability against Patch Adams in the H. Allen Jerkens (G1). Despite a pair of bullet works at Palm Beach Downs, he appears better suited to sprinting. Pass.

Mika (10-1) acquitted himself well in his graded debut when second to Bishop’s Bay in the Cigar Mile. However, he enjoyed an uncontested lead, opened a 2 1/2-length advantage turning for home, and still couldn’t hold off a rival who had previously been a solid Grade 3 type. That scenario won’t repeat here. Pass.

White Abarrio (4-1) returns to defend his crown, though circumstances differ markedly from last year. He prepped with a runner-up finish in the Mr. Prospector (G3) prior to his 2024 Pegasus win but missed scheduled preps this time and was scratched from both the Mr. Prospector and the Breeders’ Cup Classic. He hasn’t raced since August. While he fires fresh and clearly loves Gulfstream, post 11 doesn’t help, and a repeat seems unlikely. Pass.

 On the positive side, Brotha Keny (30-1) can handle the distance. On the negative side, he hasn’t shown he can beat Grade 3 company. He earns the title of the Pegasus “Why?” horse. Pass.

A Gulfstream mainstay, Lightning Tones (30-1) reliably earns checks and owns two Sunshine Classic Stakes victories. Last year, he closed mildly to finish third in the Gulfstream Park Mile (G2) and was no match for White Abarrio in the 1 1/16-mile Ghostzapper (G3). Pass.

Analysis

Previous Starts: Most of the last 15 Pegasus winners gained ground and finished in the top three in their prior start, with many making their first start off a layoff. Six exited the Breeders’ Cup Mile or Classic.

Run Style: Speed dominates. Pace pressers within two lengths of the lead have been most effective, while pacesetters accounted for five victories.

Favorites: Trust the chalk. Nine of the last 15 favorites finished in the top three, including three winners in the past five editions, along with one second and one clunker.

Post Position: Inside posts hold a slight edge, particularly post 4, which produced five winners. Posts 1, 8, and 10 yielded two winners each, while rail runners hit the superfecta nine times.

It’s the youngsters who returned successfully after injury vs. the old timers, most of whom have taken turns beating each other over the years.

Disco Time hasn’t beaten much, but he’s looked the part doing it, with improving figures and added distance in his favor. Typically a pacesetter or presser, he also showed the ability to close through trouble in the Lecomte and should either control or stalk the pace.

Tappan Street brings tactical speed and should move forward in his second start off the layoff, settling just off the leaders.

Full Serrano, the 2024 Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile winner, routinely posts double-digit speed figures. However, the 7-year-old has never raced outside California and hasn’t shown an ability to rate, leaving him as a question mark.

Poster’s worst finish came on Tapeta, yet he still completed the superfecta. A wide trip in the Harlan’s Holiday and reluctance to pass Skippylongstocking suggest the addition of blinkers could help keep him closer early.

For multi-ticket players, Banishing and Skippylongstocking deserve consideration.

Banishing endured a brutal trip in the Lukas Classic and owns tactical speed across multiple tracks, making him an intriguing longshot.

Skippylongstocking always shows up, and while he’s finished behind several rivals in the past, consistency remains his calling card.

That leaves White Abarrio. The fan favorite loves Gulfstream, but missed training time, scratched from his last two races, and doesn’t arrive with the same momentum as last year. At 4-1 morning line, I’m leaving him out of my top picks.

Selections:

7. Tappan Street (4-1)

1. Disco Time (8-5)

3. Full Serrano (12-1)

8. Poster (20-1)

   

Hadicapper's Corner: 2025 Sunshine Classic

 Sunshine Classic Showdown: Can Lightning Strike Again?

By: Laurie Ross, Pedigree Power 

The $75,000 Sunshine Classic is a far cry from the heyday of the Sunshine Millions, when eight races were split between Florida and California between 2002 and 2011. We saw a $1 million purse up for grabs and Grade 1 winners like Southern Image, Lava Man, and Go Between in the winner’s circle. Who can forget Mucho Macho Man and Ron the Greek? The former won in 2012 and 2014, while Ron the Greek was second in 2012 and won in 2013.

This year, 2024 Sunshine Classic hero Lure Him In faces last year’s winner, Lighting Tones and four other rivals. The 1 1/16 mile event is carded as race 10 of 11 with a 4:50 PM EST post time.

Let’s take a look at the field. 

Lightning Tones (5-2) returns to defend his Sunshine Classic crown. Since then, the Jose Castro trainee has placed worse than fourth only once in six starts, including third in the  Gulfstream Park Mile (G2). He most recently placed third, beaten 3 1/2 lengths for second by Lure Him In in a $70,000 Handicap after breaking slow and getting a wide trip. With Brisnet ratings in the 90s, Lightning Tones is competitive and could surprise if he gets a setup like last year. Contender. 

Lure Him In (8-5) does his best work as a pacesetter – presser. Something his jockey Edwin Gonzalez understands as they teamed for a 5-2-1-1 record since November 2024. This Sam Wilensky trainee won the 2024 edition of the Sunshine Millions Classic, one of his only two wins in a dozen starts at 1 1/16 miles, but has placed second 5 times, giving him the best record in the field at the distance. Contender.

Neoequos (3-1) took a well-deserved break after touring the country this summer and picking up checks in some minor sprints. He’s back to his favorite track, where he has hit the board in six of seven starts, including a pair of thirds in the Fountain of Youth (G2) and Florida Derby (G1). The Saffie Joseph, Jr. trainee is winless around two turns but faces softer company. His speed was honed with a pair of pre-race bullet works. Exotics.

Awesome Train (6-1) hopes to better last year’s fifth-place finish in the Sunshine Classic. Since then, he’s won two optional claiming contests, including his last start, and placed second or third in four additional tries against most of this field. The Antonio Sano trainee recorded back-to-back victories once in his career and has only one win in four starts at 1 1/16 miles. Exotics.

The 5-year-old Hades (9-2) had a brief freshening and returned a winner in his last start against optional claimers at Tampa. He has back class, winning the 2024 Holy Bull (G3) and finishing in the money in four other stakes, including the Dwyer (G3). Last year, the Joe Orseno trainee managed only one victory, picked up a check for second place and was well-beaten twice by Lightning Tones. Hades could improve enough to pick up a check, but would have to revert to 2024 form to win. I’m taking a pass.

Pure Class (20-1) makes his first start for Laura Cazares and turns around in just 17 days. Race Lens shows that over the last five years, Cazares has an 8% win and a 33% in-the-money rate first after the claim between 8 and 30 days. Cazares is noted for improving horses, but Pure Class was off form in his last two starts against lesser rivals. He’s also trying two turns for the first time. Pass.

Analysis

This field is filled with sprinter–milers, and things get iffy when they try two turns.

Lure Him In and Lightning Tones are the only ones with multiple victories at 1 1/16 miles and the previous Suns. Lure Him In suffers from seconditis, with a 12-2-5-0 record versus Lightning Tones at  7-2-0-2. 

They have opposite running styles, too. Lure Him In is a pacesetter, Lightning Tones a one-run closer.

I’m giving the nod to Lightning Tones because Lure Him In will have the speedy Neoequos to keep him busy on the front end, if Lure Him In can run with him.

Awesome Train just keeps chugging along. He can be counted on to pick up a check, and the presence of Irad Ortiz, Jr. could spell upset.

 

Selections:

5. Lightning Tones (5-2)

4. Lure Him In (8-5)

3. Awesome Train (6-1)

6. Neoequos (3-1)

 

Handicapper's Corner: 2026 Smarty Jones Stakes

  

The Spirit of Birdstone Tries Again

By: Michael Amo, ThoroFan Board Member

Smarty Jones had a short but remarkable career. He ran nine times, winning eight, finishing second in the 2004 Belmont Stakes.

I was perched in my third deck seat at Belmont Park as I watched him control the field as he attempted to win the Triple Crown. Approaching the quarter pole, it looked like from my vantage point he was going to do it. That is, until Birdstone at 36-1 powered down the stretch, consuming seven lengths as he passed a tiring Smarty Jones, winning by a length.

Emotions were split. The entire crowd, cheering him on, was sullen as Birdstone crossed the finish line. Even Birdstone’s owner, Marylou Whitney, apologized to the crowd for the upset.

The courage of Smarty Jones in the Triple Crown races earned him recognition and the naming of this race for him.

Nine 3-year-old colts are entered to run 8.5 furlongs for a share of the $250,000 purse. The Smarty Jones is the 10th of 11 races on Saturday’s card, with a scheduled post time of 4:25 p.m. CT.

The weather in Hot Springs looks beautiful. Let’s look at the field.

1.   Universe (Global Campaign) has finished in the money in his last four races. Jockey Hernandez switches to McPeek’s other entry, Sleepingonfreedom (#9). Coming up in company and should make his presence known in the stretch. Although his post position may cause him trouble.

2.   Baytown Dreamer (Mendelssohn) worked a bullet for the race. Should push the pace early, but the distance could be his Waterloo.

3.   Boca Beach Club (Omaha Beach) worked a bullet for the race but tries the 8.5 furlongs for the first time. Although he steps up in class, he will be in the mix, hoping for others to make mistakes.

4.   Silent Tactic (Tacitus) ran a commendable race at 8.5 furlongs over the Woodbine synthetic course. Should sit off the pace with a move in the stretch. Could be in the money.

5.   Rancho Santa Fe (Tapit) should be challenging the lead with jockey Florent Geroux’s 3^rd time aboard. Has had two bullet workouts since his last race, which he won. Bred and retained by West Stables is a good sign. Dangerous.

6.   Oscar’s Hope (Twirling Candy) another one pushing the early pace. Stretching out to a longer distance, yet he has finished in the first two positions in all his races. Seems focused on the wire. Picks up solid jockey, Santana, for trainer Tom Amoss. Contender.

7.   Strategic Risk (Noble Bird) tries lower company and did well at this distance last out winning by nine lengths. Castellano returns, trying to deliver back-to-back wins for Mark Casse. He should be strategically placed with a rush to the finish in the lane. Ironically, his sire was sired by Birdstone, the horse that beat Smarty Jones. Contender.

8.   Scar Ship (Midshipman) runs in only state-bred restricted races. Tries open company for the first time. Another vying for the lead early in the race. Stretching out from sprint to 8.5 furlongs may be too big of a challenge. Adds blinkers. Could be an experiment which needs to be watched.

9.   Sleepingonfreedom (Independence Hall) closed to win a lesser race over the sloppy course at Churchill Downs. Jockey Hernandez stays with him, giving up the other McPeek horse. Can run on the front or just off the pace. Likely will try to stay in mid-pack early, waiting for a last spurt. Maybe?

   Analysis

   The early pace outside of Universe may compromise his ability to establish the position he wants –a danger at short odds. Oscar’s Hope should have the lead into the stretch with Boca Beach Club and Strategic Risk hoping to catch him. Here is how I think the race will finish/

7. Strategic Risk (6-1)

6. Oscar’s Hope (8-1)

1. Universe (3-1)

8. Scar Ship (12-1)

Handigamble

$20 to win on Strategic Risk (7) =$20

$40 to place on Strategic Risk (7) =$40

$5 Exacta Box: Strategic Risk (7), Oscar’s Hope (6), and Universe (1) = $30

$1 Trifecta Key: Scar Ship (8) with Strategic Risk (7), Oscar’s Hope (6), and Universe (1 with Strategic Risk (7), Oscar’s Hope (6), and Universe (1) = $6

Good luck but keep the day job.