More questions than answers in Grade 3 Royal Heroine
By: Stuart Marc DeVoe, ThoroFan Handicapper
We have a
potential bankroll builder for next week’s Derby festivities at Santa Anita on
Saturday!
The Grade 3
Royal Heroine at a mile on the grass lines up 9 runners in a very competitive edition. This race is named after the Hall of Fame
mare who won the inaugural running of the Breeders’ Cup Mile in 1984. She set a North American record for a mile on
grass in doing so. I don’t believe there
are any Breeders’ Cup types in this affair, but it looks entertaining
nonetheless.
Spotlighted
as the closing race 9, post time for the $100,000 event is 5:09 PM PT (8:09 PM
ET).
Let’s look at
the field:
1. Innovative (15/1) It looked as though D’Amato was
progressing this then 3yo fill through her conditions last year. She went from a maiden winner in May to a G3
winner in September. Something must have
gone amiss in her last start back in October.
Phil is good off the layoff and if one can forgive the poor effort that
was followed by time away, one can give this gal an outside look. She will be a price.
2. Tirupati (9/2)
Interestingly, Jonathan Thomas and owner Augustin Stables claimed this
mare back for 50k after losing her for 25k back in the fall of 2024. They’ve been rewarded with a G3 Wilshire win
last March. Like Innovative to her
inside, that win was followed by a dismal effort and a layoff. But unlike her rival, Tirupati has had a prep
race back where she ran poorly in the Monrovia down the dip. It looks like they gave her one, and she is
ready to go. Thomas has good states
going sprint to route as well as 2nd race off a layoff. A lot to like here.
3. A Thousand Miles (15/1) A front-running sort who takes them as far as
she can. She almost held on at 95-1 in
the Autumn Miss last October before winning the Zia Park Oaks on dirt. She gets “Big Money” Mike Smith in the boot,
but may be a cut below these.
4. Ripassare (10/1)
I don’t know what to make of Phil
D’Amato’s second entry in here. He is
her third trainer in what will be her seventh start. She looked to have promise early and hasn’t
run poorly of late at Turfway. Why only
6 starts as a 5-year-old? Why all the
barn changes? I have more questions
and not many answers, other than her Beyer speed numbers haven’t increased
from her 3-year-old year to now.
5. May Day Ready (9/2)
Speaking of barn changes, Dick Mandella takes over from Joseph Lee with
this 4-year-old filly. She was very
competitive against some of the best turf fillies of her crop. Lee did a great
job with her. He won the G2 Lake Placid
at Saratoga with her. I’m willing to
forgive the Valley View effort, as nothing went her way that day. Mr. Mandella has trained a horse or two in
his day, and if you subscribe to the idea that East Coast racing is a bit
stronger these days, then you must like May Day Ready. If she progresses at all, she will be
tough.
6. Rosie Jeeks (15/1)
A former Chad Brown protégé, Rosie Jeeks is now in the hands of Neil
Drysdale. It looks like she went through
a sale last fall (sold for $300K) and has had 2 West Coast runs. Her last was a neck loss down at Turf
Paradise in a $30k stake. That doesn’t
class up to these, and I will take a wait-and-see position on her.
7. Watchtower (6-1)
Her form may be a bit dirtied up.
She pulled up in her last race, and her last win was in October of 2024. She owns a few minor placings since then but
never loses by much. Her Beyer numbers
are in the mid-80s, which puts her in the mix.
I don’t think she’s kept better company than she faces today, so with
that, another minor placing?
8. Take a Breath (4/1) She’s had some success going longer than
today’s assignment recently. She did win
a few mile races across the pond before coming in a decent fourth in last
year’s Del Mar Oaks (G1). She may get a
bit of a pace to run into, and if that is the case, the cutback may be in her
favor. Hot jockey and trainer
combo. A lot to like, and she is one
of the ones.
9. Grand Slam Smile (5-2)
Our morning line favorite. What a
fun mare! She has never been out of the
money in 19 tries! Her stakes success
has come in the Cal-Bred ranks. It looks
like she tries hard every time and will need a bit extra wading into Grade 3,
open company. There is nothing in her
form that says she can’t run with these.
She is right there, if not better than most with Beyers. I’m not sure I want to take a favorite
from an outside post with speed going a mile on grass at Santa Anita.
SUMMARY
I find myself
with a lot more questions than answers when looking at the race. Layoffs.
Barn changes. Cutbacks. Pace
dynamics. I feel like if they ran this
race 10 times, you may find 4 or 5 different winners. It will come down to the trip and how the
race unfolds.
And when
betting on horses, in this situation, one must demand a price. If I had to just pick a winner, it would be May
Day Ready. She has the most upside,
run against very solid competition and has done nothing wrong. She won’t be anywhere close to her 9/2
morning line. To bet on Take a Breath
or Grand Slam Smile, I would need 6/1 or better, and I don’t think
that’s happening either.
That leaves
me with Tirupati. I’m guessing
she will be the fourth choice or so.
That should be higher than her 9/2 morning line and closer to 7/1 or 8/1. She’s inside, second off a layoff, good
trainer/jockey combo and hopefully a good price…here’s hoping.
THE
BET: (based on $100 wagered)
$100 win
Tirupati. Any other type of bet is even
more guessing than this.
