Stephen Foster: Five Horses, One Breeders’ Cup Classic Ticket
By: John Caro, ThoroFan Handicapper
Saturday’s $2 million Stephen Foster originally drew a field of seven to travel 1 1/8 miles. This is now a smaller group after two horses have scratched, leaving five to battle it out in the first 2026 Breeders’ Cup Classic qualifier and a chance at older horse of the year honors.
After looking at the roster of runners, it seems pretty wide open for four of the five, with one who may be behind the power curve for the race.
Featured as race 11 on a stakes-filled card, post time is 6:14 PM EST. The weather may present an off track, but with the crew at Churchill, it's likely not a factor and the main contenders are all proven on an off track.
Let's look at the contenders.
1. Willy D's – Maker/Saez - He won his last two races; the Kentucky Cup Classic going the distance on synthetic, and a front-running mile and a sixteenth black type at Oaklawn on Derby Day. Since then, he has had a steady diet of 5 furlongs five times to prep for this race. Class-wise, he is behind the remaining four, but he did have a great effort last year when he clocked a 1:48+ and 108 Bris speed effort at Saratoga after stumbling at the start with Saez up for the ride.
Wasn’t Saez the guy who took Maximum Security to the front in the Kentucky Derby and never looked back? Albeit disqualified for hopping sideways, it shows Saez's talent, and his entry here shows Maker's guts to duel with this field. Willy D’s running pattern says he may be the rabbit for the race. Everyone has him as a Toss. I'd be cautious about throwing him off the ticket. Exotics play at 20-1 ML? I'm in!
2. White Abarrio – Joseph/Ortiz, I jr. – He is the oldest of the runners, and his purse winnings are extraordinary at $8.4M. He was last seen winning the Oaklawn Handicap two lengths in front of Sovereignty. He has accomplished so much in his career, it's hard not to appreciate his ability and combined with the skills of his jockey, he may well pull off another win here. Win Contender? Possibly
3. Sovereignty - Mott/Alvarado - Anybody who's into horse racing knows who he is and what he's capable of. Last seen losing to White Abarrio at Oaklawn when he broke to the front in uncharacteristic fashion and got caught. He wins four in a row, Kentucky Derby, Belmont, Jimmy Dandy and the Travers while tracking. I'm confused as to what happened at Oaklawn, but he was coming off a long break, and maybe it was a test to see if front-running was a good place for him. In any case, I'll put a line through that race and except it as a long workout. He's beaten the last two listed high horses in the past, and I expect he will move forward. He is two for two at Churchill. Cheered for him throughout last year, and he's my favorite to win.
4. Baeza – Mott/Prat – John Shirreffs passed the torch to Bill Mott. Quality breeding, competitive and ITM a lot, Baeza is a closer who often times makes that move too late. Lost with that move to Sovereignty three times but won with a good middle move against Magnitude. He's just too polite for me, and he seems to have trouble from the gate, which may be why Mott gave him a gate work before leaving Saratoga. I think he'll be ITM, and he has the jockey who can capture Graded races so often it's scary. Have to include him in any exotics.
5. Magnitude - Asmussen/Ortiz, J. – Top money winner in the field because he won the Dubai World Cup this past March and beat Forever Young by a length going very strong down the stretch. If you measure horses by their times or speeds, that's a good measure. I also like to know who they ran against.
Winning a World Cup race against top company and beating a horse who may be number one in the world says a lot about Magnitude’s ability. In the last seven races, he's won five times and had a second-place finish to Baeza in the PA Derby. Jose has been up for the last three races and won. His training brought him from the World Cup to Churchill with this race in mind, and he's been working well, including a bullet 5 furlongs under a minute. Pretty sure he's ready, Jose is obviously ready, and well, Asmussen is the winningest trainer we have. Gotta match him with my top pick.
Handigambling
I think the money is so shallow that it might be time to just enjoy their rides. But if you must spend money to make money, this is what I see as the best solution. And give Mike Maker some credit for showing up against this company.
$.50 Trifecta – 3,5 with All with All = $12. You can multiply as you like to fit your budget
If Willy D's odds stay above 15-1 — $5 win, $8 place, $12 show and a $3 Exacta All with 1
