Handicapper's Corner: 2026 Raven Run Stakes (G2)

 

 

Feathers Could Fly in the Raven Run

By: John Caro, ThoroFan Handicapper 

Saturday’s $400,000 Grade 2 Raven Run Stakes attracted a dozen 3-year-old fillies who will sprint seven furlongs over Keeneland’s main oval. Featured as race 9 of 10, post time is 5:16 PM ET. Let’s review the field. 

Keeneland is a unique track and the way it plays for horses is also interesting. Some runners love it and others, well not so much. The other factor for this race is the distance. Not a route at seven furlongs but longer than most sprints. When we look at the graded stakes runners Explora (Baffert's) has been the major competition this season for the fillies. She's not going in this race but is headed to the Breeder's Cup.

It's good to watch the girls who competed with her and Always a Runner (Oaks Winner). It says a lot about the ability to compete at this level. That's not to say that any of these young ladies aren’t competitive, just some are a step above others.

I see this contest as a blistering first run to the turn and those that can be mid-pack and sustain a run in the last three sixteenths have a chance to beat the prohibitive favorite 9. Mashallah. I expect she will see pressure on the front from her inside by 1. Army Marauder with Saez on the rail and from the outside by 11. Movie Night as she did in the Dogwood at Churchill last month.

10. With A Kiss might join in the fray with Johnny V aboard as well. These four are lightning on the track in terms of their times not their Bris speeds. I'll give it to Mashallah who cuts a 45 or better second call but the other three can match her speed or better it.

8. Conceit cut back to 7 furlongs and is undefeated at the distance, including the Dogwood, winning by a head against Explora and Movie Night as the battles up front continued from 6-7 lengths back. That's my kinda Gal! She is 3 for 4 this year and Irad Ortiz is up. She does have some very nice closers that can show up as well.

12. Star Actress lost by a neck to 10. With A Kiss going 6 1/2 furlongs while returning to a sprint. Had she had more distance she may have won. 6. Percy's Bar who has crossed the finish line at Keeneland 3 out of 3, loves the track in addition to being a Grade I winner with a $1.1M in the bank she gets Jose Ortiz aboard becoming a very promising prospect.

7. A Fine Chardonnay will likely be overlooked and she has had some rough races but her best work is as a mid to late closer and she's 2 for 2 at Keeneland. Finally, the wildcard

2. Mythical. Most experienced filly in the field, lost by 5 lengths to 9. Mashallah in the Prioress but she has a history of sprinting that says she can be in the money. The other thing about her is Jaramillo is an aggressive rider when it's called for. That may play well for this race.

Bottom line is I can't wager on a favorite that pays $.50 or less on a dollar. But I see a reasonable way to profit if she doesn't win. Mashallah might blow me away but I'll take the risk given her company.

Handigambling

The menu below allows you to spend as little or as much as you dare for around $50

$.50 Trifecta — 8, 10, with 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, with 1,2,6,7,8,9,10,11,12 = $28

$1 Exacta Box — 1, 6, 8, 10, 12 = $20

Longshot wagers $50

$7 win 1 & 12 = $14  

$1 Exacta — 6,8,10 with 1,2,7,12 = $16

$10 show 1 & 12 = $20

Handicapper's Corner: 2026 Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup (G1)

  

 

Handicapping Speed vs. Closers in a loaded QEII

By: Stuart Marc DeVoe, ThoroFan Handicapper

Saturday’s $750,000 Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup (QEII) attracted a full field of 11 3-year-old fillies who will travel 1 1/8 miles over the Keeneland lawn. The Grade 1 affair is featured as race 9 of 10, post time is 5:16 PM ET. The turf is expected to be firm, but rain later in the day may play a small part. 

The QEII at Keeneland is by invitation only. All the invitees have something on their dance card that warrants a chance to add this prestigious G1 as icing on the cake of an already good season. That means all the fillies belong in one respect or another. 

When analyzing a race for 3yo fillies in the fall, I like to see who is still developing and may have a forward move to produce. I measure that against those that may be more accomplished but perhaps have already run their best.  

There are a few fillies that have already run some fast races but that hasn’t scared anyone away. We have a full field of 11. We must ask ourselves if those who have run fast can reproduce those efforts or move forward?  Perhaps someone is ready to really jump up and run a cracker.

Let’s look at the field: 

1.   Haute Diva (30/1) Took on older in her last try where she was squeezed at the start. She made a bit of a run but passed tired foes.  The waters are just as deep here for her. 

2.  Luster (5/2)  Has looked nothing short of sensational beating up on the Canadians winning the Woodbine Oaks and King’s Plate in her last two. No matter the competition, she has done it VERY easily with fast speed figures. She will trip out with her high cruising speed have first run on the closers. Luster also owns a win over the course. 

3.  Tam Tam (4/1)  Has really come to hand this summer. Like Luster, she’s a winner her last two with forward position early. She did get beat in the Regret at CD by two of her foes in here at today’s distance.  However, she was hooked 3 wide the entire journey and got a bit late where the winner, Faithful Departed had an inside run. She, again like Luster, will have first run on the closers. 

4.  Faithful Departed (7/2)  Another who has had forward progression this summer. After winning the Regret at the end of May, she closed well into a slow pace running second in the Belmont Oaks, to Kensington Lane (IRE). Her run in the Saratoga Oaks was a winning one although she got tagged on the money. She did miss a start at Kentucky Downs with a bit of a fever but should be ready to roll here.  Can absolutely win this. 

5.  Turner’s Charm (20/1)  Will be making a late run here. I’m not sure she is as good as some of the other closers nor capable enough to catch some of the ones that will be forwardly placed. An outsider. 

6.  Braida (FR) (8/1) These Euro invaders are always dangerous. I never seem to be on the right side of judging their ability. Visually, she has a devastating kick. Two back she got bottled up and didn’t get a chance to show it. For comparison’s sake, the second-place finisher (Esna) in that event was an also ran in last week’s Flower Bowl at Belmont. In her last race, she looked buried on the rail but the sea parted, and she closed well to win clear. Her speed figures are competitive with the rest of the contenders. Gun to my head, I feel this year’s edition of this race is very salty and she may be a cut below our best. That said, I wouldn’t argue with anyone backing her, especially if she is close to her morning line.   

7.  Storm’s Wake (10-1)  Another who owns a win over the course winning the G2 Appalachian in the spring where she finally got a pace to close into. She looks pace dependent and hasn’t gotten that in her last two outings. On the right day, with the right trip, she could grab a slice. She will need to be longer than her 10/1 morning line to entice me however.  A good board option. 

8.  Lookin At Diamond (20/1)  She has had a diet of west coast racing where she’s been there or thereabouts. Her effort behind Tam Tam in the Del Mar Oaks was good. It was a big step forward and perhaps she can go forward from that again. She will have to do so just to run the figures a lot of these have already done. I respect her but don’t want to bet on her.

9.  Kensington Lane (IRE) (8/1) Projects to be on the engine just like she has in her two stateside efforts. She benefited from a slow pace in the Belmont Oaks back in July. She got pressed more out at Del Mar by Tam Tam and got late. Today, she’ll have Tam Tam again and Luster waiting to pounce. One or both of them will attack at some point as I don’t see an easy lead for her today. Can she hang on for a piece?  Perhaps. 

10. Deep Learning (12/1)  I don’t think we’ve seen the best of this one yet.  Her Saratoga efforts were good. She had the worst of trips of the top three in her last with a wide journey. The winner swooped them and the place horse never left the rail. Admittedly, she’ll need a forward move but that isn’t out of the question with these connections. A price play. 

11. Soloist (20/1)  Got the better of the trips against Storm’s Wake last month at Colonial. She gets Irad but an outside box. Perhaps he can work his magic but she seems a cut below these and will have to figure out a trip.  Pass.

SUMMARY 

What a good race! It looks like there is a strong pace presence and strong closers. But with only one horse, Kensington Lane (IRE), looking like a need the lead type I don’t expect the pace to be hot. 

Both Luster and Tam Tam can be forward and finish. They will have Kensington Lane in their sights. As good as Luster has looked, I don’t think we’ve seen the bottom of her. She is my pick to win. This distance may be as far Tam Tam wants but she will make the picture. 

I think one or both can hold off the strong closes from Faithful Departed, Braida (FR), Deep Learning and Storm’s Wake but they will need their best.  Price will dictate my bet.

THE BET:  (based on $100 wagered)

Assuming the morning line is accurate I cannot bet the top 3 choices together if I think they are close ability wise unless I bet small straight combinations, so my equity is intact.  Once you start boxing and spreading, you don’t make any $$.

Exactas:

$25 Luster – Tam Tam

$15 Luster – Tam Tam, Deep Learning, Storm’s Wake

Trifectas:

$5 Luster – Tam Tam – Faithful Departed, Braida (FR), Storm’s Wake, Deep Learning

$10 Luster – Tam Tam – Faithful Departed

Good Luck!

  

Handicapper's Corner: 2026 Coolmore Turf Mile (G1)

 

 From England to Keeneland: 

A British Twist on the Coolmore Turf Mile

 By: MaryJo Moncheski

Saturday’s $1.2 million Turf Mile Stakes (G1) is one of 11 stakes held during Keeneland’s 2026 Fall meet, and one of the weekend’s several Breeders’ Cup qualifiers contested across the country.

Listed as race 10, eleven 3-year-olds and older line up in the starting gate for a 5:48 PM post time. Let’s review the ones most likely to hit the board. 

I just got back from an amazing 10-day adventure in England. While I was there, I was fortunate to attend two UK races in one day: Royal Windsor Racecourse and Kempton Racecourse. I follow some UK racecourses, including both of these tracks, and have become familiar with many of the jockeys and trainers.

Cieren Fallon is one of the top riders in the UK and Ireland. He is not one to miss here flying in to ride 7. Lake Forest for Trainer William Haggas. Another UK-bred horse with a viable shot in this race is  1. Title Role with Jockey Johnny Velazquez and Trainer Brendan Walsh.

I really want to like 2. Brilliant Berti, but there isn’t enough consistency across the board for me, especially in G1 stakes.

If 4. Mercante had the speed with Blinkers Off, then I would give him a second look.

6. Plensa would be a huge upset considering he is jumping to a G1 stakes from a Restricted near-handicap stakes.

8. Kapuna is cutting back in distance and jumping up in class. I just don’t feel he has what it takes with this field.

I am automatically discarding 9. Zulu Kingdom as well. Other than not being a Chad Brown fan, I am not a fan of the lack of variety in distance this horse has run in past performances since May 3, 2025, when he won at 1 1/16 mile in the American Turf Grade I Stakes. One may argue consistently running at the same distance for more than five races in a row can create stagnation. He has won 8 out of 12 starts with consistently improving speed, however, Jockey Jose Ortiz picks up the ride, while Flavien Prat is riding elsewhere. Additionally, Zulu Kingdom lost to contender 5. Pass the Hat. Zulu Kingdom wins consistently as a presser or early pace horse. Pass the Hat is also a presser, early pace, and closer. My eye is going for the steady raters that get set up for a close. So my picks are 7-1-3-5. Let’s take a deeper look at them.

Top Pair: 7. Lake Forest with 1. Title Role

7 Lake Forest goes on top for the reasons listed above, plus the fact Cieren Fallon only has one mount, this race, the very last race of the day. For the distance reasons I listed for Zulu Kingdom, I give slack for the UK horses running near the same distances consistently as each track is different and may have elevation, unlike North American tracks. For 20 lifetime starts this horse has won over 20%. Trainer William Haggas isn’t sending Lake Forest to Keeneland unless he knows he has a winner. I am hoping he stays around 4-1 or goes longer given that Irad is back and riding reining Coolmore Turf Mile champ, Rhetorical.

1. Title Role takes the second spot for me. Jockey Johnny Velazquez is far from British, however, if there is anyone who knows versatility around the world and how to ride UK and Irish Turf horses, it’s Johnny V. The only reason this horse isn’t on top is his Beyer Speed Figure compared to the others. He is going back to a mile, which he clearly loves. Let’s hope he loves Keeneland’s mile!

Bottom Pair: 3. Rhetorical and 5. Pass the Hat

Reining champ 3. Rhetorical returns to his regular Jockey Irad Ortiz, Jr. coming a small layoff from the August 8^th G1 Four Star Dave Stakes at Saratoga. I am a little worried about his form, which is why I am not confident in putting him higher than third place. I debated actually moving him to fourth place, but he has a lot of experience handling the G1 class, as well as the Keeneland turf.

Lastly, I placed 5. Pass the Hat in fourth place because I do feel there is going to be a battle for the pace with Zulu Kingdom and one of them is going to tire out…or both. He is also moving up in class significantly and coming back in distance. The shorter distance from 1 1/16^th will surely help him. Pass the Hat also fits my rested criteria with several bullets (must be under 4.80 return, 10% win rate, speed, 30-60 days rested).

Bets:

$10 Win on #7

$2 exacta box on 7-1= $4

.50 trifecta box on 7-1-5= $3

Wildcards to include your P3 and P4: 8. Kapuna or .2 Brilliant Berti