Handicapper's Corner: 2026 Fayette Stakes (G3)

 

 Fayette Stakes Betting Strategy can Boost Your Breeders' Cup Bankroll

BY: Robert Marks, (@theyreinthegate)

We have a Grade 3 race for 3 Year Olds and Upward at Keenland this Saturday- 1 1/8 miles with a $350,000 purse. We have a competitive field featuring 12 horses.

The 2026 Hagyard Fayette Stakes shapes up as a competitive race only 1 weekend before the Breeders’ Cup. As you load up your betting account for the Breeders Cup, just leave some in the Budget to bet this race as an appetizer to the big weekend coming up. 

Here is our analysis:

#7 Stars and Stripes at 3-1 is my top value selection. Bill Mott is the Trainer with Luis Saez the Jockey. What’s not to like? He owns the field's best speed figure of 108 (Brisnet) in his last race at Belmont (Jockey Club Gold Cup). His record shows 5 wins out of 10 starts. He also will have no problem going 2 turns. The 3-1 odds might be a bit short but if he goes off at Post time at 3-1 or higher he is a must use in your Exactas and Trifectas.

#4 Nevada Beach at 6-1 trained by Bob Baffert with Francisco Arrieta as the Jockey is my second selection. He comes into the race off a competitive 3^rd in the Grade 1 Goodwood Stakes, showing that this 4-year-old colt is still in great form. This came off a 7-month layoff.  His running style will put him near the pace, and speed wise I would put him second only to Stars and Stripes. He ran a 106-speed figure back in the Native Diver Stakes in 2025. At 6-1, if you think he is likely to improve on a 2^nd time out off a long layoff this looks like a logical contender to finish in the top three.

#2 This is Uscar at 10-1 Trained by Jordan Blair with Edgar Morales on board, is my third selection and perhaps the most interesting alternative to the shorter-priced horses. His Brisnet 100 speed figure in the 9/26/26 Lukas Classic (Grade II) puts him right there with the favorites.

His tactical running style will help should there be a contested hot early pace. This 5-year-old gelding is consistently in the money (15 times out of 21 starts) and with lesser-known connections I expect his odds to may float up to 12-1 or so, making him a sound pick at big odds.   

For a longshot, #10 Silent Tactic at 15-1 odds is my choice. This 3-year-old colt won the Oklahoma Debry on 9/27/26 after settling off the early pace and taking the lead. Also had a nice year overall, finishing 2^nd in the Arkansas Derby and 3^rd in the Jim Dandy at Saratoga this summer. He also ran in the Travers but was disappointing and was eased in the race. But his next time out in the Oklahoma Derby he won and was no worse for the wear. Plus, I love the Trainer /Jockey connections in Mark Casse and Javier Castellanno.

My value selections: #7 Stars and Stripes #6 Nevada Beach, #2 This is Uscar. Longshot: #10 Silent Tactic

Note: Irad Ortiz Jr broke his ankle on 10/22/26 and will not be the Jockey on # 1 Hit Show.

This will be an interesting race.  We look for a moderate to fast pace as most of the field are early pace setter types.  I see This is Uscar and Silent Tactic among the early leaders with Stars and Stripes and Nevada Beach finishing strong late.  As always watch the Horses in the Paddock and the odds as Post time approaches and then make final selections accordingly.

Bets: $100 dollar Budget

$5 Trifecta Box: Stars and Stripes, Nevada Beach, This is Uscar (total bet $30)

$10 Exacta Box:  Stars and Stripes, Nevada Beach, (total bet $60)

$5 Win Bet: Starts and Stripes (Total bet: $5)

$5 Place Bet: Silent Tactic (Total Bet: $5)

 

Handicapper's Corner: 2026 Raven Run Stakes (G2)

 

 

Feathers Could Fly in the Raven Run

By: John Caro, ThoroFan Handicapper 

Saturday’s $400,000 Grade 2 Raven Run Stakes attracted a dozen 3-year-old fillies who will sprint seven furlongs over Keeneland’s main oval. Featured as race 9 of 10, post time is 5:16 PM ET. Let’s review the field. 

Keeneland is a unique track and the way it plays for horses is also interesting. Some runners love it and others, well not so much. The other factor for this race is the distance. Not a route at seven furlongs but longer than most sprints. When we look at the graded stakes runners Explora (Baffert's) has been the major competition this season for the fillies. She's not going in this race but is headed to the Breeder's Cup.

It's good to watch the girls who competed with her and Always a Runner (Oaks Winner). It says a lot about the ability to compete at this level. That's not to say that any of these young ladies aren’t competitive, just some are a step above others.

I see this contest as a blistering first run to the turn and those that can be mid-pack and sustain a run in the last three sixteenths have a chance to beat the prohibitive favorite 9. Mashallah. I expect she will see pressure on the front from her inside by 1. Army Marauder with Saez on the rail and from the outside by 11. Movie Night as she did in the Dogwood at Churchill last month.

10. With A Kiss might join in the fray with Johnny V aboard as well. These four are lightning on the track in terms of their times not their Bris speeds. I'll give it to Mashallah who cuts a 45 or better second call but the other three can match her speed or better it.

8. Conceit cut back to 7 furlongs and is undefeated at the distance, including the Dogwood, winning by a head against Explora and Movie Night as the battles up front continued from 6-7 lengths back. That's my kinda Gal! She is 3 for 4 this year and Irad Ortiz is up. She does have some very nice closers that can show up as well.

12. Star Actress lost by a neck to 10. With A Kiss going 6 1/2 furlongs while returning to a sprint. Had she had more distance she may have won. 6. Percy's Bar who has crossed the finish line at Keeneland 3 out of 3, loves the track in addition to being a Grade I winner with a $1.1M in the bank she gets Jose Ortiz aboard becoming a very promising prospect.

7. A Fine Chardonnay will likely be overlooked and she has had some rough races but her best work is as a mid to late closer and she's 2 for 2 at Keeneland. Finally, the wildcard

2. Mythical. Most experienced filly in the field, lost by 5 lengths to 9. Mashallah in the Prioress but she has a history of sprinting that says she can be in the money. The other thing about her is Jaramillo is an aggressive rider when it's called for. That may play well for this race.

Bottom line is I can't wager on a favorite that pays $.50 or less on a dollar. But I see a reasonable way to profit if she doesn't win. Mashallah might blow me away but I'll take the risk given her company.

Handigambling

The menu below allows you to spend as little or as much as you dare for around $50

$.50 Trifecta — 8, 10, with 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, with 1,2,6,7,8,9,10,11,12 = $28

$1 Exacta Box — 1, 6, 8, 10, 12 = $20

Longshot wagers $50

$7 win 1 & 12 = $14  

$1 Exacta — 6,8,10 with 1,2,7,12 = $16

$10 show 1 & 12 = $20

Handicapper's Corner: 2026 Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup (G1)

  

 

Handicapping Speed vs. Closers in a loaded QEII

By: Stuart Marc DeVoe, ThoroFan Handicapper

Saturday’s $750,000 Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup (QEII) attracted a full field of 11 3-year-old fillies who will travel 1 1/8 miles over the Keeneland lawn. The Grade 1 affair is featured as race 9 of 10, post time is 5:16 PM ET. The turf is expected to be firm, but rain later in the day may play a small part. 

The QEII at Keeneland is by invitation only. All the invitees have something on their dance card that warrants a chance to add this prestigious G1 as icing on the cake of an already good season. That means all the fillies belong in one respect or another. 

When analyzing a race for 3yo fillies in the fall, I like to see who is still developing and may have a forward move to produce. I measure that against those that may be more accomplished but perhaps have already run their best.  

There are a few fillies that have already run some fast races but that hasn’t scared anyone away. We have a full field of 11. We must ask ourselves if those who have run fast can reproduce those efforts or move forward?  Perhaps someone is ready to really jump up and run a cracker.

Let’s look at the field: 

1.   Haute Diva (30/1) Took on older in her last try where she was squeezed at the start. She made a bit of a run but passed tired foes.  The waters are just as deep here for her. 

2.  Luster (5/2)  Has looked nothing short of sensational beating up on the Canadians winning the Woodbine Oaks and King’s Plate in her last two. No matter the competition, she has done it VERY easily with fast speed figures. She will trip out with her high cruising speed have first run on the closers. Luster also owns a win over the course. 

3.  Tam Tam (4/1)  Has really come to hand this summer. Like Luster, she’s a winner her last two with forward position early. She did get beat in the Regret at CD by two of her foes in here at today’s distance.  However, she was hooked 3 wide the entire journey and got a bit late where the winner, Faithful Departed had an inside run. She, again like Luster, will have first run on the closers. 

4.  Faithful Departed (7/2)  Another who has had forward progression this summer. After winning the Regret at the end of May, she closed well into a slow pace running second in the Belmont Oaks, to Kensington Lane (IRE). Her run in the Saratoga Oaks was a winning one although she got tagged on the money. She did miss a start at Kentucky Downs with a bit of a fever but should be ready to roll here.  Can absolutely win this. 

5.  Turner’s Charm (20/1)  Will be making a late run here. I’m not sure she is as good as some of the other closers nor capable enough to catch some of the ones that will be forwardly placed. An outsider. 

6.  Braida (FR) (8/1) These Euro invaders are always dangerous. I never seem to be on the right side of judging their ability. Visually, she has a devastating kick. Two back she got bottled up and didn’t get a chance to show it. For comparison’s sake, the second-place finisher (Esna) in that event was an also ran in last week’s Flower Bowl at Belmont. In her last race, she looked buried on the rail but the sea parted, and she closed well to win clear. Her speed figures are competitive with the rest of the contenders. Gun to my head, I feel this year’s edition of this race is very salty and she may be a cut below our best. That said, I wouldn’t argue with anyone backing her, especially if she is close to her morning line.   

7.  Storm’s Wake (10-1)  Another who owns a win over the course winning the G2 Appalachian in the spring where she finally got a pace to close into. She looks pace dependent and hasn’t gotten that in her last two outings. On the right day, with the right trip, she could grab a slice. She will need to be longer than her 10/1 morning line to entice me however.  A good board option. 

8.  Lookin At Diamond (20/1)  She has had a diet of west coast racing where she’s been there or thereabouts. Her effort behind Tam Tam in the Del Mar Oaks was good. It was a big step forward and perhaps she can go forward from that again. She will have to do so just to run the figures a lot of these have already done. I respect her but don’t want to bet on her.

9.  Kensington Lane (IRE) (8/1) Projects to be on the engine just like she has in her two stateside efforts. She benefited from a slow pace in the Belmont Oaks back in July. She got pressed more out at Del Mar by Tam Tam and got late. Today, she’ll have Tam Tam again and Luster waiting to pounce. One or both of them will attack at some point as I don’t see an easy lead for her today. Can she hang on for a piece?  Perhaps. 

10. Deep Learning (12/1)  I don’t think we’ve seen the best of this one yet.  Her Saratoga efforts were good. She had the worst of trips of the top three in her last with a wide journey. The winner swooped them and the place horse never left the rail. Admittedly, she’ll need a forward move but that isn’t out of the question with these connections. A price play. 

11. Soloist (20/1)  Got the better of the trips against Storm’s Wake last month at Colonial. She gets Irad but an outside box. Perhaps he can work his magic but she seems a cut below these and will have to figure out a trip.  Pass.

SUMMARY 

What a good race! It looks like there is a strong pace presence and strong closers. But with only one horse, Kensington Lane (IRE), looking like a need the lead type I don’t expect the pace to be hot. 

Both Luster and Tam Tam can be forward and finish. They will have Kensington Lane in their sights. As good as Luster has looked, I don’t think we’ve seen the bottom of her. She is my pick to win. This distance may be as far Tam Tam wants but she will make the picture. 

I think one or both can hold off the strong closes from Faithful Departed, Braida (FR), Deep Learning and Storm’s Wake but they will need their best.  Price will dictate my bet.

THE BET:  (based on $100 wagered)

Assuming the morning line is accurate I cannot bet the top 3 choices together if I think they are close ability wise unless I bet small straight combinations, so my equity is intact.  Once you start boxing and spreading, you don’t make any $$.

Exactas:

$25 Luster – Tam Tam

$15 Luster – Tam Tam, Deep Learning, Storm’s Wake

Trifectas:

$5 Luster – Tam Tam – Faithful Departed, Braida (FR), Storm’s Wake, Deep Learning

$10 Luster – Tam Tam – Faithful Departed

Good Luck!