Belmont Stakes Handicappers’ Consensus: Will Familiar Foes or Fresh Faces Shine?
The
Grade 1 Belmont Stakes is usually a test of stamina and speed, arriving at the
end of a grueling season of graded stakes races. This year includes leg-weary
runners from the Kentucky Derby, plus later-maturing newcomers ready to travel
1 1/4 miles at Saratoga.
Rain
looms once more, setting the stage for a soggy showdown between familiar foes Golden Tempo and Renegade. Will
one of them rise to the occasion, or will one of the other seven contenders
splash into the spotlight with a breakout performance?
The
ThoroFan Handicappers have poured (pun intended) over the past performances and
delivered their expert consensus.
Which
handicapper most closely matches your picks? Let us know!
Hello, racing fans. Although the Kentucky Derby is now in our rearview mirror, we
return to Churchill Downs this weekend as older fillies and mares take center
stage in the $300,000 Shawnee Stakes. A
field of seven runners is set to contest the 1 1/16-mile Grade 2 event, where
experience, class, and staying power will be put to the test over the main
track.
Race Analysis:
The Shawnee Stakes shapes up as a competitive race
with several mares likely to be involved in the early going. Given the current
Churchill Downs profile favoring horses with early speed and forward placement,
the opening stages of the race could ultimately determine the outcome. With
many of the top contenders exiting sprint races, the pace scenario is not
entirely clear, which could make positioning and trip especially important
turning for home.
Immersivebrings a strong class edge into the
race and could work out an ideal stalking trip under Irad Ortiz.
Splendora figures to be one of the key pace
influences in the race and remains dangerous if able to secure a comfortable
early placement.
Majestic Oops continues to look like an intriguing
value contender with her consistency and ability to adapt to different race
setups.
Miss Justify may have more of a say in the outcome
than her recent finish indicates. The mare returns second off the layoff and
owns solid route credentials.
Suggested Wagering Strategy: Win Bet:
Immersive (5/2
or higher)
Exactas:
Exacta Box: Immersive & Splendora
Exacta:
Immersive over Majestic Oops
Exacta:
Splendora over Majestic Oops
Trifectas
1st: Immersive, Splendora 2nd: Immersive, Splendora, Majestic Oops 3rd: Majestic Oops, Miss Justify, Take Charge Omaha
Welcome Friends to The Turk Blog, now in our 19th season of Horse Racing Handicapping, where we have (almost) exclusively handicapped Turf Racing for (mostly) four year old's and up over (generally) routes of grass up to the classic distance.
I'd like to thank the good people at The Thorofan for allowing me the opportunity to share my thoughts with you today.
Monday's Gamely Stakes at Santa Anita gives eight fillies and mares a chance to earn their first Grade 1 success. Lets get after it.
Early to Late TIMEFORM PACE
The chart above is a Left to Right visualization of the early speed to the closing speed. Thought Process is the most consistent Early Speed, Rashmi with a small sample size is fastest flat runner while Take a Breath and Hang the Moon are Deep closers.
The chart above counts the number of 20-26 and 2025 races only. The Standard Deviation is a way of implied consistent efforts. In a small sample size Rashmi has three Beyer Speed Figures of very similar outcomes, raced respectively at 1 Mile on Firm Turf at Santa Anita. She own 2 of the 4 90+ Beyer Speed Figs recorded since 2025 by this group.
It's getting harder as the years go on to find video on all the races. Apologies, Fan Duel mostly uploads Top of the Stretch to the Wire video, but that said, I found the last race for every runner in the field which is unusual.
25 April 2026: Santa Anita: The Royal Heroine G3; 1 Mile Firm Turf; Take a Breath (Win), May Day Ready (Place 1/2 back)
12 April 2026: Keeneland: Allowance N1X $97K; 1 1/8 Miles Firm Turf; Vronti (GB) (Win by 1/2 length)
28 March 2026; Gulfstream Park: Sand Springs Lane $150K; 1 1/16 Firm Turf ; Hang the Moon (Place-neck)
28 March 2026; Santa Anita: The Wilshire G3; 1 Mile on Firm Turf; Rashmi (Win by 2 3/4)
15 March 2026 Santa Anita: Santa Ana Stakes G3; 1 1/4 Miles Firm Turf. Take A Breath(W), Public Assembly (1st to 4th last furlong)
28 February 2026: Santa Anita: The Buena Vista G2; 1 Mile Firm Turf; Thought Process (Win by 2)
Is that enough information for you? It's too much for one race, but I like to practice like I play. I handicap a lot of races that I don't play, I handicap the same way, with consistent data analysis, and when I do play, my ROI on Turf, at Distance, with older runners, is consistently good. Could I make a living doing this? No. Can I have fun when I do occasionally bet money, absolutely!
I suspect Thought Process will be the betting public pick. I'm not sure she shouldn't be, but I'm looking at value and I'll be leaving her out of the exacta at my own peril, at best adding her to place. Rashmi, the next great Augustin Stable winner for owner and Buffalo Sabres Hall of Fame member George Strawbridge Jr, is my pick.
It's early, lots of Turf racing to go in 2026, and for me, now is about figuring out who's a contender and who's a pretender. The time for wagering comes when I've seen a few races from each of these horses to know what we have on our hands.
Saturday’s Grade 2 Ruffian Stakes at Belmont at the Big A
was named in honor of the tragic black heroine. Once a prestigious Grade 1
event at 1 1/8 miles, the Ruffian has been watered down to a Grade 2 at a mile.
This year, seven older fillies and mares will enter the
starting gate at 4:09 PM ET. Let’s review the field.
For this very short field, there isn’t a point in picking
a superfecta, so I went with just the trifecta. When fields are 7 horses or
less, you’re not going to make much on the superfecta, especially if a horse
ends up scratching. My trifecta includes longshot Dry Powder, Eumonia, and Irish
Maxima.
#7 Dry Powder to Win
I really like Dry Powder with Trainer Chad Summers, even
though she just ran last week in the G1La Troienne where she finished ninth.
She has had decent workouts leading up to the La Troienne so it makes me wonder
if that was a prep race for the Ruffian. When you consider Jockey Kazushi Kimura
is aboard and the fact she won at this distance at Belmont at the Big A twice,
I think she has a good chance. She has come back in form after a layoff, so
maybe this is the race she was always meant to run.
#3 Eunomia to Place
I went with #3 Eunomia to place mostly because I think
she will be a heavy favorite with Jockey Tyler Gaffalione. In December, she
came back to form after a few months off to win a $32k Optional Claiming Race
at Tampa Bay Downs. Since then, her form and speed have been pretty consistent
at various distances, including a mile. Her last race out in the Keeneland
Baird Doubledog Dare G2 she lost by just a neck. I think she has what it takes
to go to the front with Dry Powder.
#6 Irish Maxima to
Show
I liked #6 Irish Maxima over #5 Inefficiency because she
has proven herself more after a layoff. She was off from August 30, 2025 to
February 21, 2026 and came back to finish in the money on slop at Aqueduct. She
has been consistent in getting back to form, winning her last two races. I am
not sure how she will do going back up to a harder class, but with the small
field, she has a good chance.
