Handicapper's Corner: 2026 Pacific Classic (G1)

  

On the Warpath Against Pacific Classic Favorites

By: Stuart Marc deVoe, ThoroFan Handicapper 

It’s great to see a full field in a G1 race for a change.  I applaud all those taking a shot in the Pacific Classic and for the East Coast boys to ship in.  Eleven runners will line up in the 1 14/ mile race with many liking the front end. 

There are a few closers signed on and the favorite, Knightsbridge, will try and stretch his speed another eight of a mile after a stellar performance that earned a 122 Beyer Speed Figure.

Let’s look at the field: 

 

1.   Om N Joy (20-1)  She’s a nice mare who will get the distance and will be closing in a speed laden field.  I can see her getting a piece.

2.   Forged Steel (5-1)  His best running is when he makes the lead which didn’t happen in his last, the G2 Suburban.  He got rank and never settled when behind runners.  If he is to clear today, he’ll need to break and be aggressive.  He’ll have to go fast to do so and then keep going.  He did that in the Gold Cup in May, but this is a much larger and speedy field. 

3.   Finger (JPN) (8-1)  It would be no surprise a Japanese runner came in and stole a big pot.  He seems like another forward type runner but gets in light.  Reports say he doesn’t need the lead and may sit a perfect trip.  Don’t ignore…

4.   Subsandador (ARG) (12-1)   His best days are behind him.

5.   Malarchuk (10-1)  Got trounced by 9.5L in his last by Forged Steel.  That again was in May.  Best of luck to him.

6.   Original Sin (15-1) An interesting long shot.  Juan Hernandez rides for Brendan Walsh and east coast trainer and not for any of the hometown boys.  His versatile running style can put him in a good spot, he’s beaten Hit Show on the square and the price will be right…

7.   Hit Show (6-1)  I’d love to own this guy.  He just earns and earns ($9.5mill in the bankroll).  He’ll be coming forward in the stretch, and his best puts him in the mix.  Maybe…

8.   British Isles (12-1)  I’d have to come up with a lot of excuses for his recent form.  Not for me. 

9.   Navajo Warrior (8-1)  I guess we’d call this the acid test for Navajo Warrior.  Saffie scratched him out of the Whitney for this (I think) and he’s really come along with progressive speed figures and wins.  At first blush he looks like another speedy sort.  If you watch his last two races, he went to the lead on a loose rein, got into a good rhythm and went on with it.  He can sit a trip and get first run.

10.    Full Serrano (ARG) (8-1)  His best puts him right there.  His Pegasus and Oaklawn Mile efforts were good.  In fact, the OP race was great given his horrid start.  But he missed the San Diego with a foot issue and comes back at a mile and a quarter off a layoff from an outside post.  A tall order.

11.    Knightsbridge (5-2)  He’s the deserving favorite as that gaudy last race Beyer of 122 sticks out further than his post for this race.  If you put your finger over that effort, his other races still make him the favorite.  His second place to Nysos in the Met Mile was a solid effort as were his three romps in south Florida.  Here is the rub…his best running is on the lead.  He is outside plenty of other speed here and hasn’t gone this far.  If he clears, he will fly early and have to carry that pace.  If he tries to rate, which I think he can, he may be wide around the first turn and then must work a trip from there.  At what price are you willing to take to see?

SUMMARY 

I’m going against Knightsbridge.  If he wins, hats off to him.  I just can’t take a short price on a horse coming off a monster effort, shipping, stretching out to his furthest distance who may have to alter his running style to win.  If he goes for the lead, it may be suicide.  If he takes back, he’s wide.

I am looking at Navajo Warrior to sit the trip.  The 8-1 morning line seems fair enough and he needs only to repeat his last 2 efforts to win.  I can come up with a few others to hit the board, like Original Sin, Om N Joy and Hit Show.  I can see Forged Steel getting brave as well as the Japanese horse, Finger (JPN), to trip out.  If the favorite runs out of the money, there may be a nice payoff to be had.

THE BET:  (based on $100 wagered)

$40 win Navajo Warrior

$8 exactas Navajo Warrior with Original Sin, Hit Show, Forged Steel

$4 exactas Original Sin, Hit Show, Forged Steel with Navajo Warrior

$2 Trifecta Key Navajo Warrior with Original Sin, Hit Show, Forged Steel, Finger

Here’s to taking a swing!  Good luck

ThoroFan at Saratoga: Stop By, Talk Racing, Grab Our Picks

 

 

ThoroFan at Saratoga: Stop By, Talk Racing, Grab Our Picks 

Handicapper's Corner: 2026 King's Plate

 

 

 The Case for an Upset in the King’s Plate

By Nick Costa, Trackside with Trackman

Hello ThoroFan friends, this Saturday the stage is set for one of the most iconic events in horse racing: the 167th running of the King's Plate at Woodbine Racetrack in Toronto, Ontario. The King's Plate is not only Canada's oldest and most prestigious Thoroughbred race, but also the longest continuously run Thoroughbred stakes race—a tradition dating back to 1860.

Named in honor of Canada's reigning monarch, the King's Plate is far more than just a horse race. It is a celebration of Canadian heritage, tradition, and excellence in Thoroughbred racing. With its rich history, enthusiastic crowds, and outstanding competition, it remains one of the premier events on the North American racing calendar.

Serving once again as the opening leg of the Canadian Triple Crown, this year's King's Plate will bring together Canada's top three-year-olds to compete over 1 1/4 miles on Woodbine's Tapeta surface for a purse of $1 million (CAD).

Featured as race 10 of 13, post time for the King’s Plate is 6:12 PM ET. 

A full field of 12 three-year-olds is set to go to the post, led by morning-line favorite Luster, who earned her opportunity to take on the boys following a dominant victory in the Woodbine Oaks. Her impressive performance against the fillies has made her one of the most intriguing contenders in this year's renewal.

Plate Trial winner Highwaytothemoon also enters the King's Plate with momentum after proving himself over the same Woodbine Tapeta surface, while several other proven stakes performers and improving three-year-olds will look to make the biggest statement of their young careers.

Adding another compelling storyline are two of Canada's most accomplished conditioners. Three-time King's Plate-winning trainers Josie Carroll and Mark Casse will each be looking to add a fourth King's Plate victory to their already impressive résumés.

With a full field, proven stakes performers, an Oaks winner taking on the boys, a Plate Trial winner looking to continue his momentum, and two of the sport's most accomplished trainers pursuing another King's Plate triumph, this year's renewal promises to provide plenty of intrigue from the opening bell to the final stride.

With the field set, the focus is narrowed down to eight horses that deserve the most attention—five win contenders and three others who could make their presence felt in the exotics.

WIN CONTENDERS

#1 Luster — Dominant Oaks winner with the tactical speed to get another favorable trip.

#5 Dixie Law — Oaks runner-up who should get the stalking trip she needs.

#7 Magical Factor — The price horse; lightly raced and improving.

#8 Highwaytothemoon — Plate Trial winner with tactical speed; distance is the question.

#9 Brachetto — Marine winner with a strong closing kick.

EXOTICS USE

#4 Imyourmedicineman — Closed well in the Plate Trial and can pick up a piece.

#12 Military Time — Wide trip hurt him in the Trial; better trip could put him underneath.

#3 Baaeed Alynna — Lightly raced and improving; could sneak into the exotics.

 How the Race Could Unfold

Expect an honest but controlled pace, with Luster, Dixie Law, Highwaytothemoon and Magical Factor settling within striking distance rather than engaging in a destructive early battle. Given the tactical bias we've seen at Woodbine, that positioning could prove crucial. Luster should get first run turning for home, with Dixie Law and Highwaytothemoon close behind, while Magical Factor looks to capitalize on the expected ideal stalking trip. Brachetto will be looking for a faster pace to fuel his late run, while Military Time could be the one picking up the pieces underneath.

Wagering Strategy

With contenders and race shape identified, it's time to put opinions to work. The wagering will be concentrated on the horses that offer the best combination of winning potential and value, with Magical Factor serving as the primary price play.

Hello ThoroFan friends, this Saturday, the stage is set for one of the most iconic events in North American racing: the 167th running of the King's Plate at Woodbine Racetrack in Toronto, Ontario. The King's Plate is not only Canada's oldest and most prestigious Thoroughbred race, but also the longest continuously run stakes race on the continent—a tradition dating back to 1860.

Named in honor of Canada's reigning monarch, the King's Plate is more than just a horse race. It is a celebration of Canadian heritage, tradition, and excellence in Thoroughbred racing. With its rich history, enthusiastic crowd, and outstanding competition, it remains one of the premier events on the North American racing calendar.

Serving once again as the opening leg of the Canadian Triple Crown, this year's King's Plate will bring together the nation's top three-year-olds to compete over 1¼ miles on Woodbine's Tapeta surface for a purse of $1 million (CAD).

This year's edition has attracted another talented and competitive field, featuring proven stakes performers along with several improving runners looking to make the biggest statement of their young careers. A field of ___ is expected to go to the post, led by morning-line favorite, Luster, whose dominant victory in the Woodbine Oaks earned her the opportunity to take on the boys. Plate Trial winner Highwaytothemoon also headlines the field, while several other legitimate contenders appear poised to make their presence felt in what promises to be another highly competitive renewal of Canada's most prestigious horse race.

Adding another compelling storyline are two of Canada's most accomplished conditioners. Three-time King's Plate-winning trainers Josie Carroll and Mark Casse will each be looking to add a fourth King's Plate victory to their already impressive résumés.

With a full field, proven stakes performers, an Oaks winner taking on the boys, a Plate Trial winner looking to continue his momentum, and two of the sport's most accomplished trainers pursuing another King's Plate triumph, this year's renewal promises to provide plenty of intrigue from the opening bell to the final stride.
With the field set, the focus is narrowed down to eight horses that deserve the most attention—five win contenders and three others who could make their presence felt in the exotics.

With a full field, proven stakes performers, an Oaks winner taking on the boys, a Plate Trial winner looking to continue his momentum, and two of the sport's most accomplished trainers pursuing another King's Plate triumph, this year's renewal promises to provide plenty of intrigue from the opening bell to the final stride.

With the field set, the focus is narrowed down to eight horses that deserve the most attention—five win contenders and three others who could make their presence felt in the exotics.

WIN CONTENDERS

#1 Luster — Dominant Oaks winner with the tactical speed to get another favorable trip.

#5 Dixie Law — Oaks runner-up who should get the stalking trip she needs.

#7 Magical Factor — The price horse; lightly raced and improving.

#8 Highwaytothemoon — Plate Trial winner with tactical speed; distance is the question.

#9 Brachetto — Marine winner with a strong closing kick.

EXOTICS USE

#4 Imyourmedicineman — Closed well in the Plate Trial and can pick up a piece.

#12 Military Time — Wide trip hurt him in the Trial; better trip could put him underneath.

#3 Baaeed Alynna — Lightly raced and improving; could sneak into the exotics.

How the Race Could Unfold

Expect an honest but controlled pace, with Luster, Dixie Law, Highwaytothemoon and Magical Factor settling within striking distance rather than engaging in a destructive early battle. Given the tactical bias we've seen at Woodbine, that positioning could prove crucial. Luster should get first run turning for home, with Dixie Law and Highwaytothemoon close behind, while Magical Factor looks to capitalize on the expected ideal stalking trip. Brachetto will be looking for a faster pace to fuel his late run, while Military Time could be the one picking up the pieces underneath.

Wagering Strategy

With contenders and race shape identified, it's time to put opinions to work. The wagering will be concentrated on the horses that offer the best combination of winning potential and value, with Magical Factor serving as the primary price play.

$100 King's Plate Wagering Strategy

Win — $45

$25 Win #7 Magical Factor

$20 Win #1 Luster

Exactas — $25

$5 Exacta Box — #1 Luster / #7 Magical Factor  = $10

$5 Exacta — #7 Magical Factor over #5 Dixie Law, #8 Highwaytothemoon, #9 Brachetto = $15

Trifectas — $30

$.50 Trifecta = $15
7/ 1,3,5,8,9/ 1,3,4,5,8,9,12

$.50  Trifecta = $15

1/ 3,5,7,8,9/ 3,4,5,7,8,9,12

Good luck and as always, enjoy the race!