Handicapper's Corner: 2026 Oaklawn Handicap (G2)

 

    Top 3-year-olds vulnerable in Oaklawn 'Cap

By: Robert Marks, (@theyreinthegate)

We have a Grade 2 Handicap race at Oaklawn Park this Saturday, 4-year-olds and upward with a $1,250,000 purse. We have a short but competitive field featuring well-known older horses, including Horse of the Year Sovereignty. Featured as race 11 of 12, the Oaklawn Handicap post time is 6:20 PM CT.  

Here is who we like:

White Abarrio (7-2) Trained by Joseph Saffie with Irad Ortiz Jr., the Jockey, this horse is our best value win bet. Although Sovereignty may be your likely winner no way we can bet Sovereignty, a 4-5 horse in such a short field. With White Abarrio, you get a proven older horse (7 years old), Elite back class (7.7 million in earnings) and strong tactical speed, which is needed in what we expect to be a moderate but honest pace. He’s also well rested with a 2-month layoff. If this horse should float to 4-1 or higher odds, hammer him at the windows. And with a beautiful gray coat coming out of the 1 hole, he will be easier to spot and follow.

   Publisher (15-1) trained by Steve Asmussen with son Erik Asmussen aboard, we like this double-digit odds horse as a live longshot. He won his last race at Oaklawn Park at 1 1/16 and is 3-3 over this race course. His tactical style fits the moderate pace we expect. And with money we expect to flow towards Journalism and Sovereignty, we think he may go off more like 20-1. He is definitely not your fastest horse if you go by speed figures, but you could argue he is the hottest horse with 3 straight wins. The jockey knows the horse and knows the track well. Publisher is improving at the right time, and his strong tactical style suits the race pace.

Journalism (5-2). This Michael McCarthy-trained 4-year-old Horse with Jose Ortiz on board has plenty of black type wins as he picked up Grade 1 wins last year in the Santa Anita Derby, the Preakness Stakes and the Haskell Stakes and ran 8 races with triple-digit speed figures. He is all class and always competes.

He has a strong late pace. The only caveat is that he has not raced since finishing 4^th in last year’s BC Classic, which is a 5-month layoff. Maybe that helps his odds to float up come post time.  

Analysis

This will be an interesting race. We have 2 horses, Journalism and Sovereignty, coming into this race with 5 months and 7 months off, respectively. At 4-5, we can’t bet Sovereignty off a 7-month layoff. We know trainer Bill Mott is great at spotting his horses and timing these races, but we just feel Sovereignty needs one race before we throw down dollars on the favorite.

We look for a moderate pace with White Abarrio making a move at the final turn, with Publisher and Journalism moving up the final sixteenth.

Hoping to get Publisher on top at the wire. We hope to hit a Trifecta, and then an Exacta, boxing our 3 highlighted horses with a value win bet on Publisher. As always, watch the horses in the paddock and the odds as Post time approaches, and then make final selections accordingly.

Bets: $100 dollar Budget

$5 Trifecta Box: White Abarrio, Publisher, Journalism (total bet $30)

$10 Exacta Box:   White Abarrio, Publisher, Journalism (total bet $60)

$10 Win Bet: Publisher (Total bet: $10)

 

Handicapper's Corner: 2026 Apple Blossom Stakes (G1)

 

 Longshots can Bloom in Apple Blossom Stakes

By: John Caro, ThoroFan Handicapper 

The $1.25 million Grade 1 Apple Blossom Stakes features nine older fillies and mares traveling 1 1/16 miles over the Oaklawn Park oval.

The track should be fast, but the par speed listed on the Brisnet form (100) is in question from my perspective. I think the par is closer to 97.

We have several who like to be on the lead, with many who like to track a leader. If the track plays as usual, closers will be left behind, relegated to the bottom of the exotics.

Carded as Race 10 of 12, post time is 5:47 PM CT. Let’s review the field.

#1 Nitrogen – Casse/Ortiz, J – She has never been out of the money in 14 starts, with half of them wins. She has the most graded-stakes experience and $2+ million in earnings to her credit. Last out she didn't appreciate the wet track and didn't finish in a straight path. She lost to the next two listed below. 9/5 odds. Always a Contender.

#2 Majestic Oops – Ward/Arrieta  - Won the Azeri last out against Nitrogen, loves Oaklawn with 8 races, 4 wins and 2 placings. Arrieta was aboard for three of those wins shown on the form. She's a tracker and can close to finish from midpack as well. Good choice for a win contender at a good price 9-2.

#3 Regaled – Beckman/Ramos  - She is a late closer and used that talent to finish second behind Majestic Oops in the Azeri by 3/4. Has had 15 starts on fast tracks with two wins, one placing and four thirds. In her four starts on off track conditions, she hasn't been out of the exacta and won twice. If the track was wet, I'd give her a shot. Bottom of exotics.

#4 Dazzling Move – Joseph/Gonzalez  - Recent form doesn't look so good, but she's been off for 77 days with six works and adds blinkers for this one. Looking back at her races, she was competitive and speedy when going to the front. I think Saffie has a plan, and Gonzalez is the type of rider that can move her on the front or nearly so. Could make an impression on the pace and will likely be in the lower exotics. 15-1

#5 Om N Joy -  Ordonez/Desormeaux  - Her races have, for the most part, been against state-bred or restricted races. This will be quite a test. She's only had one race this year, about 35 days ago. Two works since her last, and is a closer when she wins. Think the competition will be too much, given her speed figures going a route of ground. Toss

#6 Nerazurri – Casse/Torres  - Her form is excellent, and she loves Oaklawn with 4 races, 3 wins and a placing this year. Likes the lead but doesn't need it to win. Although not tested against this level, except for her place finish against Nitrogen at this track, gives me confidence that she will show up in the exotics and my surprise with a win. Must use. 6-1

#7 Five G – Weaver/Velasquez  - Last seen winning with Johnny V up against lesser going a mile. She's had some good wins, including the Gulfstream Oaks and a second in the Honeybee here last year. Johnny put her on the bridle last year in the Cash Run and won by 9. He could put her on the lead and stroll through the backstretch and leave them flat-footed if others let him get away with it. Dangerous at 10-1.

#8 Claret Beret – Joseph/Husbands  - She likes to come from off the pace as she did at Gulfstream, going the distance in the Royal Delta, winning by 5 lengths. I believe if she moves closer to the pace, she can close with the best in the field. Must use at 8-1.

#9 Blue Fire – Asmussen/Geroux  - Coming from the outside post is not helping her front-running style going against smaller fields but Geroux is a patient rider and skilled at making a move at the right point in a race. At 15-1 I'll use him in the exotics and a small win wager given her late pace figure.

Handigambling menu….you must decide how large your wagers should be.

Going to stick with #2 Majestic Oops on top and the 6, 7 and 8 are likely in the money

$.50 Trifecta – 2 with 1,6,7,8 with All   $14

$1 Exacta Box – 2,6,7,8,9   $20

$.50  Superfecta  - 8 with 2,7 with All with All  $42  (If available, a $.10 Super cost $8.40 but should pay well if the 8 is on top of 2 or 7)

Longshot player’s Win wagers on 6,7,8,9  Dutch your win wagers on theses four and play the exacta box above.

Like $6 win 9, $9 win 7, $11 win 8, & $14 win 6. Each would pay $96-99 given the ML odds.  

$60 total for the win and exacta box.

 

 

Handicapper's Corner: 2026 Blue Grass Stakes (G1)

 

Bid Ado to the Others

By: Michael Amo, ThoroFan Board Member

Keeneland Racecourse epitomizes racing’s culture. The track buts against breeding farms, including Calumet Farms, which currently holds the record for most Blue Grass Stakes wins with six.

The Paddock centers racing, where fans can hang on the railings as horses prepare for the next race. The building was modernized with multiple floors from which to view the racetrack and the Paddock. You can tell it is one of my favorite racetracks to attend, especially on Blue Grass Weekend.

The Blue Grass Stakes first ran in 1911, with a 10-year break between 1927 and 1936. It has been carded since then. Between 2007 and 2014, the main track was converted to an all-weather track but returned to its original dirt surface in 2015 and remains that way.

Nine 3-year-olds are entered this year to run nine furlongs for a share of the $1,250,000 purse. The race offers two hundred Derby Qualifying points (100-50-25-15-10). Unfortunately, the weatherman forecasts an 80% change of rain, some of which may fall around post time.

Here is the field: 

1.   Talkin (Good Magic) is the only entrant with Grade One experience, finishing second to Napoleon Solo in the 2025 Champagne Stakes. He worked a bullet for this race and retains his jockey, Rosario, for the race. He is not the fastest horse in the race, but shows a strategic running style needed to win.

2.   Class President (Uncle Mo) Scratched.

3.   Great White (Volatile) Comes in from Turfway Park to try graded stakes for the first time. Should be in mid-pack down the backside, hoping for enough gas in the tank to slide into the exotics. Working nicely. He has 20 Derby Qualifying Points but needs to sweeten that number to get in the derby.

4.   Regan’s Honor (Honor A.P.) He generated the highest Beyer figure in last win in an allowance race at the Fair Grounds. He, too will be trying to get the lead out of the gate. He adds eight pounds over his last race. With no Qualifying Points, he must be in the top two finishers for an invitation to the Derby.

5.   Creole Chrome (Volatile) He is a shipper from Fair Grounds that has been working at Keeneland. He gets a new jockey, Gaffalione for trainer Joe Sharp. Distance may be his Waterloo. He should be in the front as long as he can last.

6.   Further Ado (Gun Runner) Keeps his last race jockey, Irad Ortiz, where he finished ¾ length behind the winner, Puma, who finished a close second to Commandment in the Florida Derby. With zero Qualifying Points, he needs a first or second-place finish in the Blue Grass to get in the Derby. Working a bullet suggests he is ready.

7.   Ocelli (Connect) Scratched.

8.   Moonstrocity (Tiz the Law) is a maiden shipping in from Gulfstream Park. Not likely fast enough to secure a win in this race. Working a bullet for trainer, Antonucci. Based on his wet numbers, he may like a wet track, though he has never raced on one. A scary one on which to take a wagering chance. Might surprise.

9.   Ottinho (Quality Road) Likes to run on the front, but his draw will compromise his chances in this race. A return to jockey Pratt for trainer Chad Brown may help, but will it be enough.

Analysis

The pending bad weather makes predicting a winner difficult. None has shown they can handle the wet going. Two horses have wet numbers over 400: Further Ado (438), and Moonstrocity (440). Of course, if rain does not materialize, these numbers mean nothing. Further Ado with Ortiz up coming off the pace should handle a wet or dry track, and Talkin should be in the mix.

How will they finish?

6. Further Ado (8-5)

4. Reagan’s Honor(5-2)

1. Talkin (10-1)

8. Moonstrocity (30-1)

 

Handigamble ($100)

$20 win on Further Ado

40 place on Further Ado

$5 Exacta Box: Further Ado (#6), Reagan’s Honor (#4) and

Talkin (#1)

 $10 win on Moonstrocity #8

 

Good Luck but keep the day job!