Hndicapper's Corner: 2026 Caress Stakes (G2)

  

 

Picking against the favorite in Caress Stakes

By: MaryJo Moncheski, ThoroFan Handicapper

The $250,000 Grade 2 Caress Stakes drew six older fillies and mares who will sprint 5 1/2 furlongs over the Saratoga turf course. Carded as race five of 11, post time is 2:47 PM ET. 

It is a short field for the G2 Caress Stakes. I don’t like to play superfectas on fields with six or fewer horses as it’s not worth the payout. With that being said, I am going with a trifecta using 3-6-5. Most people may pick 1. Zeitlos or 4. Sunna. I will start with these two, then dive into who I do like.

Zeitlos has a lot of things going wrong for her. She hasn’t won a race in 10 starts. She was so close in the G3 Winning Colors at Churchill Downs on May 25, 2026; however, she just missed. Zeitlos has been consistent, running in fifth or fourth position at every quarter pole in every race. She has won with Jockey Jose Ortiz, though.

Now, Sunna has consistent speed and has won her last three starts… and that’s where she loses me. Jockey Joel Rosario picks up her mount. I simply cannot trust Rosario to deliver. He has been on a little hot streak as of late, though, not enough for me to trust he’ll see Sunna over the finish line. I like to see horses that have changes in distances, especially the last three races. There’s nothing wrong with a horse that likes one certain length of distance; however, they can eventually get bored. Sunna is jumping in class pretty big, too.

For these reasons, I am knocking those two from my picks. Let’s take a look further.

TOP PAIR: 3-6

I really love 3. Italian Soiree with Jockey Dylan Davis. She has the speed to beat the short field as well as experience in this class. Trainer Graham Motion brought her back from a six-month layoff to win and earn a 93 Beyer Speed figure. While she finished second by a length in her last race, I like that she was consistently moving every quarter. Her speed figures haven’t been consistent, but I think she has what it takes to get to the lead.

Of the Trainer Saffie Joseph, Jr. horses in this field, I like 6. In Our Time the most. She could be the rabbit for 2. Movin’ On Up. In Our Time won coming back after a layoff and currently fits my “rested criteria”: off 30 days, paid under $4.80 last time out, at least 10% win rate of total lifetime starts, and has speed. The only reason I didn’t put her on top is that she will likely be the heavy favorite. It is better to put heavy favorites in the middle.

Lastly, to round out my trifecta, I have 5. Obstreperous. Jockey Jaime Rodriguez has been on fire in New York. Out of 17 starts in the Saratoga meet, he already has an 18% win rate and a 22% Jockey/Trainer combo win rate with Trainer Michael Simone. This horse has the speed capability to win; however, my only hesitation is bumping up significantly in class. Last year, Obstreperous raced in the Caress when it was downgraded to a G3 and placed ninth. Her workouts have been pretty good, so we’ll have to see if she can handle this short field.

Trifecta: 3,6,4

3. Italian Soiree (7-2)

6. In Our Time (5-2)

5. Obstreperous (15-1)

 

  

Handicapper's Corner: 2026 Belmont Oaks (G1)

 

 

Fireworks at the Spa: Handicapping the Belmont Oaks

By: Stuart Marc deVoe, ThoroFan Handicapper 

Happy 250th, America!  You don’t look a day over 225.  What better place could there be to eat hot dogs and drink a cold beer on the 4th of July than Saratoga Race Course? 

NYRA has put together a stellar card for the festivities, and The Belmont Oaks is one of four graded stakes on offer.  As one would expect, a competitive cast of 10 has signed up for this prestigious G1 for 600k. 

Post time is 4:06 PM ET.  Projected Track Condition: Firm, good, soft? Really, who knows?  It’s Saratoga, where storms pop up randomly.

Let’s look at the field:  

1.   Just Aloof (8-1) Some will say this is “The other Chad” as Chad Brown also sends out Fitz Right for whom his main rider Flavien Prat “chose” over this one.  ‘Aloof may be overlooked in this spot off that.  But she’s a horse that has tactical speed from the inner turf rail, seems improving and is a neck and a half from being undefeated.  She’s kept good company and will face a few familiar faces in here.  Any improvement, which Chad seems competent in doing, puts her right there.  Manny Franco picks up the mount, which is fine.  He makes the most of it when given the opportunity. 

2.  Time to Dream (12-1)  Looked like the goods last year, winning her 1^st two starts over this course.  She went off 4-1, 2^nd choice (behind today’s foe, Ultimate Love) in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf last fall.  I’m not so sure she has taken a step forward from her 2yo form to her 3yo form.  Her last race, again at Saratoga, was a step in the right direction.

3.  Kensington Lane (IRE) (10-1) This Irish-bred from the yard of Donnacha O’Brien has run 3 times this year.  She won a G3 and was beaten 5 3/4 lengths in a G1 at the Curragh.  Her pressing running style concerns me as US races are generally run at sharper paces.  Can she carry the speed another eighth of a mile?

4.  Faithful Departed (5-1)   Has already won at today’s distance while taking the G3 Regret at Churchill.  What a dream trip she had that day, riding the rail and catching a split in the stretch.  The foes she beat both had wide trips, with one of them in today (Storm’s Wake) and the other, who came back and won by 5 lengths on Stephen Foster Day at Churchill last weekend.   I’m wary of perfect trip winners right back. 

5.  Storm’s Wake (10-1)  Ran a bang up second to the aforementioned Faithful Departed in the Regret G3 last out.  Storm’s Wake ran an improved race visually.  Not only was she hooked wide on both turns, but, as a deep closer, she put herself much more into the race.  Don’t hold the fact that she lost ground in the stretch against her.  She is a strong closer, but just gave up too much ground to the rail-skimming winner.  Her trainer Brian Lynch has been on a tear this year with a 25% strike rate.

6.  Fitz Right (6-1) As mentioned, Flavien sticks here for Chad.  I get it.  She’s won 3 in a row “climbing” the class ladder.  She’ll appreciate the added ground.  But, again, she’s coming off a perfect trip win and will most likely be shorter than her 6-1 ml.  She seems like a grinder to me and will need to trip out against the likes of these.  This is the toughest group to date.

7.  Carmenista (ARG) (30-1)  Will be the longest shot on the board.  She did close in a decent allowance race on Belmont Day, but the top two finishers ran away from her in the stretch.  I think there are other stronger closers in this field.    

8.   Abashiri (GB) (5-2)  It’s no secret that Charlie and Godolphin send the right horses here for these races.  Abashiri (GB) sure looks the part.  Yes, she has only one win, on synthetic last year, on her scorecard.  But her two runs this year, one in the English 100 Guineas and the other in the Irish version 3 weeks hence, were bangers.  Her company lines are simply better than those she faces here.  That said, she also has that Euro forward style and will be the betting favorite. 

9.   Ultimate Love (10-1)  She entered last year’s Breeders’ Cup undefeated and was bet to favoritism.  She ran well.  Didn’t really finish but ran well.  Her comeback race this year was in the Hilltop, a 125k stake at Laurel on Black Eyed Susan day.  She ran ok but didn’t pick up a loose leader.  Again, she didn’t really finish but ran well.  Those efforts aren’t going to be good enough against these.  Perhaps she improves immensely.  She’ll have to.  You will get paid if she does.  I’ll wait and see… 

10.  Imaginationthelady (4-1)  What’s she done wrong?  She’s progressed from her 2yo form, where she just missed against Storm’s Wake and then won the Edgewood G2 on the Oaks undercard.  She gives you an honest try every time, puts herself in good spots and doesn’t seem to need any particular type of track.  On the downside, she also was a perfect trip winner in her last and breaks from the outside.  I would want more than her 4-1 morning line, but it wouldn’t surprise me if she was right in the picture again. 

SUMMARY 

I’m not solving any great mysteries here by telling you that Charlie Appleby and his Blue Brigade will be tough here.  The odds board will tell you that. 

What I can offer you is that you will see some improved efforts from a few of these at fair prices, and that’s where my focus will land. 

Storm’s Wake at 10-1 ml and Just Aloof at 8-1 ml offer great value.  Of the two, I lean slightly more with Storm’s than Aloof because I like when dead closers get more aggressive in their races.  They have less to do in the stretch.

THE BET:  (based on $100 wagered)

$30 win Storm’s Wake

$6 exacta box Storm’s Wake, Just Aloof, Abashiri (GB)

$10 exacta box Storm’s Wake & Abashiri

$14 straight Exacta Abashiri – Storm’s Wake

 

Handicapper's Corner: 2026 Stephen Foster Stakes (G1)

 

 Stephen Foster: Five Horses, One Breeders’ Cup Classic Ticket

 By: John Caro, ThoroFan Handicapper

Saturday’s $2 million Stephen Foster originally drew a field of seven to travel 1 1/8 miles. This is now a smaller group after two horses have scratched, leaving five to battle it out in the first 2026 Breeders’ Cup Classic qualifier and a chance at older horse of the year honors.

After looking at the roster of runners, it seems pretty wide open for four of the five, with one who may be behind the power curve for the race.

Featured as race 11 on a stakes-filled card, post time is 6:14 PM EST. The weather may present an off track, but with the crew at Churchill, it's likely not a factor and the main contenders are all proven on an off track. 

 

 Let's look at the contenders.

1. Willy D's – Maker/Saez  - He won his last two races; the Kentucky Cup Classic going the distance on synthetic, and a front-running mile and a sixteenth black type at Oaklawn on Derby Day. Since then, he has had a steady diet of 5 furlongs five times to prep for this race. Class-wise, he is behind the remaining four, but he did have a great effort last year when he clocked a 1:48+ and 108 Bris speed effort at Saratoga after stumbling at the start with Saez up for the ride.

Wasn’t Saez the guy who took Maximum Security to the front in the Kentucky Derby and never looked back? Albeit disqualified for hopping sideways, it shows Saez's talent, and his entry here shows Maker's guts to duel with this field. Willy D’s running pattern says he may be the rabbit for the race. Everyone has him as a Toss. I'd be cautious about throwing him off the ticket. Exotics play at 20-1 ML? I'm in!

2. White Abarrio – Joseph/Ortiz, I jr. – He is the oldest of the runners, and his purse winnings are extraordinary at $8.4M. He was last seen winning the Oaklawn Handicap two lengths in front of Sovereignty. He has accomplished so much in his career, it's hard not to appreciate his ability and combined with the skills of his jockey, he may well pull off another win here. Win Contender? Possibly

3. Sovereignty  - Mott/Alvarado  - Anybody who's into horse racing knows who he is and what he's capable of. Last seen losing to White Abarrio at Oaklawn when he broke to the front in uncharacteristic fashion and got caught. He wins four in a row, Kentucky Derby, Belmont, Jimmy Dandy and the Travers while tracking. I'm confused as to what happened at Oaklawn, but he was coming off a long break, and maybe it was a test to see if front-running was a good place for him. In any case, I'll put a line through that race and except it as a long workout. He's beaten the last two listed high horses in the past, and I expect he will move forward. He is two for two at Churchill. Cheered for him throughout last year, and he's my favorite to win.

4. Baeza – Mott/Prat – John Shirreffs passed the torch to Bill Mott. Quality breeding, competitive and ITM a lot, Baeza is a closer who often times makes that move too late. Lost with that move to Sovereignty three times but won with a good middle move against Magnitude. He's just too polite for me, and he seems to have trouble from the gate, which may be why Mott gave him a gate work before leaving Saratoga. I think he'll be ITM, and he has the jockey who can capture Graded races so often it's scary. Have to include him in any exotics.

5. Magnitude  - Asmussen/Ortiz, J. – Top money winner in the field because he won the Dubai World Cup this past March and beat Forever Young by a length going very strong down the stretch. If you measure horses by their times or speeds, that's a good measure. I also like to know who they ran against.

Winning a World Cup race against top company and beating a horse who may be number one in the world says a lot about Magnitude’s ability. In the last seven races, he's won five times and had a second-place finish to Baeza in the PA Derby. Jose has been up for the last three races and won. His training brought him from the World Cup to Churchill with this race in mind, and he's been working well, including a bullet 5 furlongs under a minute. Pretty sure he's ready, Jose is obviously ready, and well, Asmussen is the winningest trainer we have. Gotta match him with my top pick.

Handigambling

I think the money is so shallow that it might be time to just enjoy their rides. But if you must spend money to make money, this is what I see as the best solution. And give Mike Maker some credit for showing up against this company. 

$.50 Trifecta – 3,5 with All with All = $12. You can multiply as you like to fit your budget

If Willy D's odds stay above 15-1 — $5 win, $8 place, $12 show and a $3 Exacta All with 1

Handicapper's Corner: 2026 Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes (Gr. 1)

 

A Royal Sprint Scramble in the 

Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes

By: MaryJo Moncheski, ThoroFan Handicapper  

Royal Ascot’s final Group 1 race is also one of its most prestigious sprint contests. First run in 1868 as the Cork and Orrery Stakes, the race was renamed in 2002 to celebrate Queen Elizabeth II’s Golden Jubilee and simultaneously elevated to Group 1 level.

In 2023, it was permanently renamed in memory of Queen Elizabeth II, as the Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes.

Now worth £1 million in prize money, the race regularly attracts the world’s leading sprinters and has been won by stars including Black Caviar, Blue Point and Lazzat.

The six-furlong event for older horses has a post time of 3:40 PM BST, or 10:40 AM EST.  

I am incredibly excited to handicap the Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes. It’s a full field with 19 horses. I narrowed my choices down to those who have had success on the Royal Ascot Racecourse and at this distance.

With a variety of amazing Jockeys participating, it can be challenging to pull out an opinion. I am going with Irish Jockey Jamie Spencer’s #11 Powerful Glory on top followed by Australian superstar, #17 Joliestar, #14 Satano Reve, and #16 Flora of Bermuda. Alright, let’s dive in!

Top Pair: #11 Powerful Glory and #17 Joliestar

I went with #11 Powerful Glory on top for several reasons. With middle post 10, Powerful Glory is primed for a good spot coming down the straight pending a successful start.

Despite faltering at Curragh, Trainer Richard Fahey told Horse Racing Life magazine his horse has been “running well and we know a strongly-run six furlongs here is right up his street.”

Powerful Glory is one of a few horses in the race that has won at Ascot at this distance. At 4 years old and winning 3 of his 6 starts already, I think he has a solid chance here.

#17 Joliestar is looking for her fourth win in a row with the 9 Post. Trainer Chris Waller famously led Winx to victory many times over. Waller has said she looks fantastic and has adapted to the flat straight of Ascot very well. I think she has what it takes to be in the exacta, especially with 2025 Longines World’s Best Jockey James McDonald aboard.

Bottom Pair: #14 Satano Reve and #16 Flora of Bermuda

In Post 18, we have Japanese import #14 Satano Reve trained by Noriyuki Hori and Jockey Ryan Moore onboard. Likely to go off as the favorite, he may come to the front of the pack after placing second by a neck in last year’s Queen Elizabeth II Stakes. I didn’t have him on top because he hasn’t consistently won at this distance in almost two years.

For fourth place, I like #16 Flora of Bermuda in Post 13. The Irish-bred mare last won with Jockey James Doyle at Newmarket on May 2 after an almost 7-month layoff. While she has never won at Ascot, she is familiar with this course and has placed in the money. James Doyle hasn’t been too shabby with his riding this week, either. 

Trifectas and Superfectas are $1 so bet within your budget!

Wildcards: #15 Stolen Kiss, #3 Comanche Brave, and #7 Kind of Blue