Handicapper's Corner: 2026 Gamely Stakes (G1)

  

 

Deep Thoughts Abound in Gamely Stakes 

By: Anthony Falbo, ThoroFan Handicapper    

 

Rashmi- Benoit Photo

 Welcome Friends to The Turk Blog, now in our 19th season of Horse Racing Handicapping, where we have (almost) exclusively handicapped Turf Racing for (mostly) four year old's and up over (generally) routes of grass up to the classic distance.   

 I'd like to thank the good people at The Thorofan for allowing me the opportunity to share my thoughts with you today.

 

Monday's Gamely Stakes at Santa Anita gives eight fillies and mares a chance to earn their first Grade 1 success. Lets get after it. 

Early to Late TIMEFORM PACE

The chart above is a Left to Right visualization of the early speed to the closing speed. Thought Process is the most consistent Early Speed, Rashmi with a small sample size is fastest flat runner while Take a Breath and Hang the Moon are Deep closers.  

The chart above counts the number of 20-26 and 2025 races only.  The Standard Deviation is a way of implied consistent efforts.  In a small sample size Rashmi has three Beyer Speed Figures of very similar outcomes, raced respectively at 1 Mile on Firm Turf at Santa Anita.  She own 2 of the 4 90+ Beyer Speed Figs recorded since 2025 by this group.  

It's getting harder as the years go on to find video on all the races.  Apologies, Fan Duel mostly uploads Top of the Stretch to the Wire video, but that said, I found the last race for every runner in the field which is unusual.  

25 April 2026: Santa Anita: The Royal Heroine G3; 1 Mile  Firm Turf; Take a Breath (Win), May Day Ready (Place 1/2 back)

12 April 2026: Keeneland: Allowance N1X $97K; 1 1/8 Miles Firm Turf; Vronti (GB) (Win by 1/2 length)

28 March 2026; Gulfstream Park: Sand Springs Lane $150K; 1 1/16 Firm Turf ; Hang the Moon (Place-neck)

28 March 2026; Santa Anita: The Wilshire G3; 1 Mile on Firm Turf; Rashmi (Win by 2 3/4)

15 March 2026 Santa Anita:  Santa Ana Stakes G3; 1 1/4 Miles Firm Turf.  Take A Breath(W), Public Assembly (1st to 4th last furlong)

28 February 2026: Santa Anita: The Buena Vista G2; 1 Mile  Firm Turf; Thought Process (Win by 2)

Is that enough information for you?  It's too much for one race, but I like to practice like I play.   I handicap a lot of races that I don't play, I handicap the same way, with consistent data analysis, and when I do play, my ROI on Turf, at Distance, with older runners, is consistently good.  Could I make a living doing this?  No.  Can I have fun when I do occasionally bet money, absolutely!

I suspect Thought Process will be the betting public pick.  I'm not sure she shouldn't be, but I'm looking at value and I'll be leaving her out of the exacta at my own peril, at best adding her to place.  Rashmi, the next great Augustin Stable winner for owner and Buffalo Sabres Hall of Fame member George Strawbridge Jr, is my pick.  

It's early, lots of Turf racing to go in 2026, and for me, now is about figuring out who's a contender and who's a pretender. The time for wagering comes when I've seen a few races from each of these horses to know what we have on our hands.

Have fun friends, Turk Out.

Handicapper's Corner: 2026 Frank E. Kilroe Mile (G2)

 

 Turf Veterans Square Off in the Kilroe Mile

By: Stuart Marc deVoe, ThoroFan Handicapper 

 

Saturday’s Kilroe Mile, named after the longtime Racing Secretary at Santa Anita, is now contested as a Grade 2 event going a flat mile on grass, which is expected to be firm.  It is always a great race and an early-season target for turf milers.  Expect to see a fair number of these 8 entrants in the best turf races going forward this year.

Scheduled as race 9, the Kilroe Mile field enters the gate at 4:12 PM PT

Let’s look at the field: 

1.   Mi Hermano Ramon (5/1) Mark Glatt sends out this 6-year-old gelding for his 1^st start since June 2025.  His steady diet of G1 & G2 events makes him one of the classiest entrants.  He seems to do his best work with pace to run into, which he will get today.

2.  Alemendares (9/2)  Enters this race as the 3^rd race off the layoff.  He put in a massive turn run to contend for top honors in the Pegasus World Cup Turf G1 last out at 37-1. He is another that seems best with pace in front of him.

3.  El Potente (5/2)  Speaking of pace, El Potente is all of that and then some.  He comes off a freakish effort winning the G3 Thunder Road for the 2^nd year in a row at today’s track and trip, where he led from flag fall to that’s all.  He did get it all his own way on the front-end last month, but his run from the middle of the far turn to the 1/8^th pole was as impressive as a horse can be.   Did he empty the tank there?  Plus, he has plenty of company up front with Cabo Spirit, Mi Bago and Final Boss to his outside.  That my force his hand to control, but he has passed horses in prior tries.

4.  Gas Me Up (7/2)  Closed for 2^nd to El Potente in the aforementioned Thunder Road in his last effort.  He was up against the pace dynamics there, but wasn’t in his start prior to that, where he mowed them all down going down the dip in the Hernandez.  His Breeders’ Cup Mile last year was sneaky good, breaking from post 12 of 13, where he was hopelessly wide the entire trip.  Gas Me Up is yet another who prefers pace in front of him and will get it today. 

5.  Cabo Spirit (10/1)  You gotta love this 7yo gelding making his 41^st start.  He always tries but is a need the lead type.  If he gets his way, he is super tough and game.  I’m just not sure it’s today with all the other speed types signed on.   

6.  Mi Bago (10/1)  I find it interesting that Mark Casse ships across the country for this 4yo.  He could have run last week at Gulfstream in a G3 for 50k less than today.  He is 4 for 4 at that track and a gelding, so it’s not like they are trying to make a stallion out of him.  I see it as a vote of confidence.  But he has one way to go, and that’s to run them off their feet.  Perhaps he gets loose and slows them down, but it doesn’t look that way on paper.  Remember that they don’t run the races on paper…

7.  Final Boss (8-1)  The last front-runner in the field who has had success in the allowance ranks but now jumps into deeper water where he hasn’t fared as well.  He's also off a September layoff for Sadler.  I’m guessing there aren’t many opportunities to run him out there on the left coast so he is in with the sharks.   

8.   Astronomer (8/1)  I would love to own this guy.  At 7 years old, he always seems to put in a run and give you an effort.  He’s another who showed up in the Pegasus World Cup Turf at a big number.  The problem is that he has only 3 wins in 23 attempts so he looks a bit camera-shy. 

SUMMARY 

This looks like it will be an honest race with good speed horses and good closers signed on.  Of the speeds, Mi Bago and Cabo Spirit are the two that seem to absolutely need the lead for their best.  El Potente has passed horses before and seems like he relaxes wherever the jock puts him.  Final Boss has passed others before, but he seems a cut below to me.  Therefore, El Potente is the most versatile/best speed type

Of the backers, Gas Me Up, Almendares and Astronomer all have a recency edge over Mi Hermano Ramon.  Gas Me Up didn’t go across the country and back, however.  When judging closers, I like to think of who would win from the ¼ pole home, assuming they start in an even straight line.  Based on final fractions, that would be Gas Me Up & ‘ Ramon.    

THE BET:  (based on $100 wagered)

$8 Exacta Box – El Potente, Gas Me Up, Mi Hermano Ramon

$20 Exacta - El Potente over Gas Me Up & Mi Hermano Ramon

$6 Trifecta Key - El Potente over Gas Me Up & Mi Hermano Ramon