Handicapper's Corner: 2026 Gamely Stakes (G1)

  

 

Deep Thoughts Abound in Gamely Stakes 

By: Anthony Falbo, ThoroFan Handicapper    

 

Rashmi- Benoit Photo

 Welcome Friends to The Turk Blog, now in our 19th season of Horse Racing Handicapping, where we have (almost) exclusively handicapped Turf Racing for (mostly) four year old's and up over (generally) routes of grass up to the classic distance.   

 I'd like to thank the good people at The Thorofan for allowing me the opportunity to share my thoughts with you today.

 

Monday's Gamely Stakes at Santa Anita gives eight fillies and mares a chance to earn their first Grade 1 success. Lets get after it. 

Early to Late TIMEFORM PACE

The chart above is a Left to Right visualization of the early speed to the closing speed. Thought Process is the most consistent Early Speed, Rashmi with a small sample size is fastest flat runner while Take a Breath and Hang the Moon are Deep closers.  

The chart above counts the number of 20-26 and 2025 races only.  The Standard Deviation is a way of implied consistent efforts.  In a small sample size Rashmi has three Beyer Speed Figures of very similar outcomes, raced respectively at 1 Mile on Firm Turf at Santa Anita.  She own 2 of the 4 90+ Beyer Speed Figs recorded since 2025 by this group.  

It's getting harder as the years go on to find video on all the races.  Apologies, Fan Duel mostly uploads Top of the Stretch to the Wire video, but that said, I found the last race for every runner in the field which is unusual.  

25 April 2026: Santa Anita: The Royal Heroine G3; 1 Mile  Firm Turf; Take a Breath (Win), May Day Ready (Place 1/2 back)

12 April 2026: Keeneland: Allowance N1X $97K; 1 1/8 Miles Firm Turf; Vronti (GB) (Win by 1/2 length)

28 March 2026; Gulfstream Park: Sand Springs Lane $150K; 1 1/16 Firm Turf ; Hang the Moon (Place-neck)

28 March 2026; Santa Anita: The Wilshire G3; 1 Mile on Firm Turf; Rashmi (Win by 2 3/4)

15 March 2026 Santa Anita:  Santa Ana Stakes G3; 1 1/4 Miles Firm Turf.  Take A Breath(W), Public Assembly (1st to 4th last furlong)

28 February 2026: Santa Anita: The Buena Vista G2; 1 Mile  Firm Turf; Thought Process (Win by 2)

Is that enough information for you?  It's too much for one race, but I like to practice like I play.   I handicap a lot of races that I don't play, I handicap the same way, with consistent data analysis, and when I do play, my ROI on Turf, at Distance, with older runners, is consistently good.  Could I make a living doing this?  No.  Can I have fun when I do occasionally bet money, absolutely!

I suspect Thought Process will be the betting public pick.  I'm not sure she shouldn't be, but I'm looking at value and I'll be leaving her out of the exacta at my own peril, at best adding her to place.  Rashmi, the next great Augustin Stable winner for owner and Buffalo Sabres Hall of Fame member George Strawbridge Jr, is my pick.  

It's early, lots of Turf racing to go in 2026, and for me, now is about figuring out who's a contender and who's a pretender. The time for wagering comes when I've seen a few races from each of these horses to know what we have on our hands.

Have fun friends, Turk Out.