Handicapper's Corner: 2021 Hollywood Derby (G1T)

Seeking Stars in wide-open Hollywood Derby

By: Anthony Falbo, The Turk 

 

Public Sector:  NYRA/Chelsea Durant

Welcome Friends to The Turk and the Little Turk Blog.  For those of you who do not know me, I've been writing horse racing handicaps, primarily Turf Racing, since 2008.  I'd like to thank the good people at The Thorofan for allowing me to share my thoughts with you today.

What a challenge:  a 14 horse field, few if any dominant contenders. I generally like to handicap four-year- old and up turf runners for the reason that three-year-old turf seasons can be so erratic.  Seldom are the horses brought onto the turf first, they generally fail on dirt first before the surface is introduced to them.  

 

This race does have some turf bred runners, some potential, and not a lot else.  It creates a real handicapping challenge and the reality is that I have a 4 in 5 chance of my favorite not winning and a 1 in 5 chance of my chalk, Public Sector, winning.  

Part of my dilemma is Public Sector will be the public betting pool chalk as well, almost undoubtedly at the top of the tote board when they break from the gate.   

 

While I always handicap the race without a bias, the bet construction is almost always pure bias.  The fundamental question: Do I ignore my opinion that Public Sector is the most accomplished and favorite here when I develop the bet construction or not?  

 

Leaving him in the win spot, perhaps even singling him, can be a good bet as there will be confusion in the field and value can fill out the exacta spot.  I should have mentioned that also, I'm almost exclusively an exacta player.  Can I find value singling Public Sector and building a case for value in the Place spot?  Possibly, with such a big field I think it's unlikely Public Sector will be bet down below his morning line odds of 5-2, perhaps 2-1 is the ceiling.  

 

If I want to win at my opportunity cost return on investment of 40% I need to not over cover and be decisive.  Let's take a look at the base handicap and some video and then think about the bet construction a bit more.  

Let's get after it!

 The Twilight Derby G2 10/31/21; 1 1/8 Miles Firm Turf SA

 The Hill Prince Stakes G2 10/23/21; 1 1/8 Miles Firm Turf BEL The Del Mar Derby G2

 

The Del Mar Derby G2 9/4/2021; 1 1/8 Miles Firm Turf DMR  

 

The Hall of Fame G2 8/6/21; 1 Mile Firm Turf SAR

What to make of all this?  When you are at the track, or even at home streaming the video, you don't have the time it takes to deep dive 14-15 horses between races.  The effort I put into handicapping for a blog entry is more than double the time I would spend studying if I was just playing the card.  The time difference can be described as not following the 80-20 rule.  You have to be able to do 80 of the work in 20 percent of the time.  I do 100% of the work for a Blog because I never know when I'm looking at a really interesting scenario and, people are reading this, they deserve maximum effort.  

With the 80-20 rule I take no more than 10 mins flowing through the field and breaking into four piles: the Toss Pile, and then Win- Win Place- Show-Exotic.  I represent those four colors in my base handicap with BLUE- YELLOW-PURPLE and RED.  I waste no time agonizing over the Toss pile.  there is no time for that.  Can those horses beat you?  Absolutely, but no time for that now.  

As I'm focused on Exacta, I have three general archetypes:  A singled runner and a few horses in Place; a boxed grouping of potential Win-Place candidates; a small group of potential Winners over a group of potential Place.  I've been doing this for a very long time, and I see patterns in these fields and races that fit into the archetypes and I see no reason to reinvent my wheel.  As I said  earlier, I plan on following the rarest of my archetypes, a singled Win candidate.  I say its rare because I want chaos, I want the favorite to lose and typically I bet the favorite to fall right out of the top 2 to create the highest value exacta possible.  With a field this size, with the traffic that will be in place, so much luck goes into the ride that a horse needs everything to fall into place perfectly.  Not to go off tangent, but that was the brilliance of Zenyatta, who was so talented could overcome a bad break or bad trip.  Few horses ever come close to matching Zenyatta in talent.  Very very few.  

Public Sector/6 will be singled.  Chad Brown is so dominant: 23% turf winners with 986 starts, 19% graded stakes in 340 starts, 27% 2nd off 45 -180 day layoff in 195 starts.  Three straight graded stakes turf wins.  A Race high 458 Tomlinson number, 8 of 9 lifetime on Turf in the money.  

So who makes the cut for consideration into the Place Spot?  I have eight potentials: 

• Subconscious/12
• Shifting Sands/8
• Flashiest/7
• Hudson Ridge/5
• Zoffarelli (Ire)/10

and

• Beyond Brilliant/2
• Cathkin Peak (Ire)/3
• Santin/14

I'm not going to do it but to illustrate, a 6 OVER 12-8-7-5-10-2-3-14 $2 exacta bet would cost $16.  I'm not saying you can't win with a bet like that, but you won't win enough to cover the times you'll lose a bet like that.  Let's get to work chopping that bet down to size. Remember, to find value, something about each of these horses you won't like.  It's easy to find reasons not to back a horse, focus on why you should back them.  

Subconscious/12 could easily be in my win column.  Trainer Mandella has a very sharp gelding on his hands with three straight wins, a nice Grade 2 win in the Twilight Derby, and a Del Mar win in August. Will be bet hard and my best case scenario is Tapit's son finishes no better than Show.  

Shifting Sands (GB)/8 is a Chad Brown runner that you have to wonder why he shipped here except to compete.  An equally gaudy 424 Tomlinson number to Public Sector's. Very classy.  A good summer at Saratoga.  First Del Mar outing.  

Flashiest/7 ran well taking place in the Del Mar Derby in September.  Very late and good speed.  The gelding has to navigate traffic and put himself in position for a late break.  The Del Mar outing may cause more public support than we'd like.

Hudson Ridge/5 incredible class, hasn't put it together.  Baffert puts Mike Smith up.  Blinkers off.  Very sharp morning works.  Lots of potential.  

Zoffarelli (Ire)/10 five Places in 9 turf starts.  Talented enough, also has yet to put it all together so far.  

Beyond Brilliant/2 will bring lots of early speed.  4 of 4 in the money over turf with one win here at Del Mar in September.  Stepping up in class from comfort zone of OC N1X, was ok for Show in G2 Twilight Derby.  

Cathkin Peak (Ire)/3 has good late speed, last two races gone off at big prices and was Place and Fourth respectively.  Winless in 4 starts in 2021, 4 Win-Places in 7 turf starts.  Morning Line 6-1, I obviously thought less of the gelded runner.  

Finally, Santin/14 is Morning Line 10-1.  Lightly raced, just 3rd start, with two wins already.  The Godolphin Team shipped for a reason, they are really entering deep end of pool.  Late speed.  

Many of my betting decisions with a group of potential Place finishers this large would be driven by the Tote Board odds.  In the absence of that, I think my initial thoughts are to:

Single Public Sector/6 OVER Shifting Sands (GB)/8, Flashiest/7, Hudson Ridge/5, Zoffarelli (Ire)/10    a $2 Bet for $8.  

Have fun with it friends.  Turk Out!  

Handicapper's Corner: Red Smith Stakes (G2)

Wide Open Red Smith Stakes with a Front-Page Ending

By: Michael Amo, ThoroFan

The Red Smith Stakes is named after an iconic sports journalist who loved horse racing and wrote about it marvelously. After graduating from Notre Dame, Smith began his writing career. His quote, "Writing is easy, just open a vein and bleed," resonates even today.

 

 

The Grade 2 stakes is a turf journey where the ten entries will travel one and three-eighth miles from gate to finish. Two were bred in Great Britain, only one of which competed there. Soldier Rising (GB) is a 3-year-old facing older horses, and he is trained by Clement and ridden by Jose Ortiz.

The weather is forecast to be good.  Here is the field:

 

    1.   Tide of the Sea (English Channel) is entered at the right level. Saez returns. He needs to repeat the effort he gave in February at this level and distance. Post position in the large field may be problematic.

 

    2.   Value Engineering (Lemon Drop Kid) gets a new jockey who rides well for Brown. Stepping up into the graded stakes company. No pre-race workouts. Likely asking too much.

 

    3.   Soldier Rising (GB) (Frankel-GB) is the only 3-year-old in the race. Gets weight from older horses. Has shown he can handle the distance and the turf. Will be closing. Is dangerous.

 

    4.   Serve the King (GB) (Kingman-GB) has shown he can run at this level with his last a witness to that. Keeping I. Ortiz is a powerful signal. A serious contender with short odds. Questionable play.

 

    5.   Shamrocket (Tonalist) is one of two entries for trainer Pletcher. Retains jockey Castellano. Beyers could be stronger. Should be in the race early. May surprise.

 

    6.   Corelli (Point of Entry) working nicely since last race and picks up an aggressive new jockey, Franco. Should be coming at the end if the pace is solid. Could be the exotics.

 

    7.   Channel Cat (English Channel) was hoping to get in the Breeders Cup but didn't. Trainer adds blinkers to keep him focused. Appears to be the only early speed if he can have his mind on the race when the gate opens. Keeps Hall of Fame rider Velazquez. Working nicely. All metrics point to a good race. But there are risks.

 

    8.   Sanctuary City (Temple City) is a New York bred that seems to perform better in restricted stakes. Likes Aqueduct Racetrack with 2 wins and 2 placings. Distance may cause him difficulty as well as the jump-up in class. Perhaps another day.

   

    9.   No Word (Silent Name) is a Japanese bred with a Sunday Silence bloodline. If he performs like he did in the 2020 Belmont Derby (GI), he will be tough. Pletcher puts turf jockey Lezcano on him for the first time. Distance will be a challenge, but he could overcome it.

 

    10.Price Talk (Kitten's Joy) working nicely for this inauguration to graded company. He will have trouble competing with these. Likes Aqueduct. Will be trying late. Not likely to make an impression.

 

Analysis

Only Channel Cat shows a propensity to run on the front end, which should allow him to dictate the pace. He has been working well and retains the services of jockey Johnny Velazquez. His two- months-plus layoff may be a problem, yet distance and class will not. Channel Cat's past performances suggest he can handle a challenge early and still prevail. But his last three races suggest his form may be deteriorating. His trainer adds blinkers to see if Channel Cat can return to previous form. Difficult win play.

The remainder of the field is evenly split between closers and horses with tactical speed. The stretch run should be exciting.

Here is how the race should finish:

    1.   #5  Shamrocket

    2.  #7  Channel Cat

    3.   #9 No Word

    4.   #6 Corelli

 

Handigamble

$100 bankroll.

$2 Trifecta Box:  (#5, #6, #7 and #9)  $48

$2 Trifecta Key: #7 with (#5, #6, #7) (#5, #6, #7)  $12

$40 place:  #7  $40

Good Luck, but keep the day job!

 

Handicapper's Corner: Bessarabian Stakes (G2)

 Fillies in the spotlight in Bessarabian

By: Nick Costa, Trackside with Trackman 

This Saturday, ThoroFan travels north to Canada for the Bessarabian Stakes at Woodbine Racetrack. The $175,000 Grade 2 race drew a field of nine fillies and mares set to go seven furlongs on the main track.

Opened in 1985 as the Etobicoke Handicap, it was renamed in 1996 in honor of the granddaughter of the legendary Canadian champion, Northern Dancer, who won the 1964 Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes.

Bessarabian won eighteen of her thirty-seven starts and was voted the 1986 Sovereign Award for Champion Older Female Horse. 

Post time for the Bessarabian is slated for 4:26 E.T. and goes as race eight on the eleven-card program.

Let’s take a look at the girls from the rail out.

1 - GIDGETTA – Patrick Husbands/Josie Carroll – 3-1 - Exclusively raced in California where she fared well on turf and dirt, and now lands in the barn of one of Woodbine’s top trainers. Even if she can transfer her good turf form to synthetic, this is a steep step up the class ladder.

2 - LA LIBERTEE – Rafael Hernandez/Mark Casse – 12-1 - Three-year old takes on older opponents. Stakes placed in two Woodbine starts, including her last run which came over the synthetic surface. Makes her third start off the layoff for HOF trainer and the meets leading conditioner.

3 - SPUN GLASS – Luis Contreras/Michael Trombetta – 15-1 - Makes her second sojourn into Canada. She won an entry level allowance race on the turf at Woodbine last October. Since then, she’s had indifferent results, but did manage to nab a second allowance win two back at Colonial Downs.

4 – LADY SPEIGHTSPEARE – Emma Jayne Wilson/Roger Attfield – 4-1 -Lightly-raced three-year old filly is unbeaten in three lifetime starts, all on the turf, including winning the Grade 1 Natalma Stakes last season, but has started just once this year. Inactive for over two months and taking a step up in class does raise concerns.

5 - AUG LUTES – Antonio Gallardo/Michael Trombetta – 8-1 - She is 4 of 5 lifetime and has had success over the Woodbine Tapeta surface in her two tries. Steps up in class here, but her form is solid and she’s on the improve.

6 - JUXTAPOSE – Gary Boulanger/Steve Owens – 20-1 - Has won 6 of 13 lifetime races, half of those wins have come on the lawn. His last win on the synthetic surface came in June 2020, but has no experience at this distance over the Tapeta.

7 - OUR SECRET AGENT – 2-1 - Kazushi Kimura/Mark Casse - She was a big winner of the G3 Hendrie Stakes in her last outing. Has only missed a top three placing once in her 14 lifetime starts. Does not lack stakes experience, and has performed quite well at the graded level, including a third-place finish in this event last year. Attracts the meets leading rider.

8 - EMMELINE – Justin Stein/John Matinee – 20-1 - As a maiden back in August, she had a pair of second-place finishes in two of the top local races for fillies, the Woodbine Oaks and the Bison City Stakes. Last time out, she finally broke through the win column going this distance.

9 - TUNED – Daisuke Fukumoto/Graham Motion – 6-1 - She won at first asking at Deauville in France as a juvenile. Since shipping to the U.S. two years ago, she has taken extremely well to the 10 different grass surfaces and track configurations she has raced over, including a third-place finish here one year ago.

 

ANALYSIS

#7 Our Special Agent appears to hold a class edge over her rivals. Her speed figures earned in graded stakes on synthetic are tops in the field and solid enough to win here. She gets the call.

#5 Aug Lutes is in phenomenal form and has improved with every start. There is not much speed signed on here, so, she’ll need pace help to assist her closing style. If she gets it, and take another step forward, she could prove very tough to deny.

#4 Lady Speightspeare is 3 for 3, winning convincingly each time. Is untested on synthetic and hasn’t seen action since early September, but she really could be any kind, so she must be afforded a fair chance.

 

WAGER

$50 to win on Our Special Agent

$10 exacta box 5-7

$1 Trifecta Box 4,5,7

.20 cent superfecta wheel 5,7/1,4,5,6,7,9

Good luck, and as always, enjoy the race!