Handicapper's Corner: 2021 Hollywood Derby (G1T)

Seeking Stars in wide-open Hollywood Derby

By: Anthony Falbo, The Turk 

 

Public Sector:  NYRA/Chelsea Durant

Welcome Friends to The Turk and the Little Turk Blog.  For those of you who do not know me, I've been writing horse racing handicaps, primarily Turf Racing, since 2008.  I'd like to thank the good people at The Thorofan for allowing me to share my thoughts with you today.

What a challenge:  a 14 horse field, few if any dominant contenders. I generally like to handicap four-year- old and up turf runners for the reason that three-year-old turf seasons can be so erratic.  Seldom are the horses brought onto the turf first, they generally fail on dirt first before the surface is introduced to them.  

 

This race does have some turf bred runners, some potential, and not a lot else.  It creates a real handicapping challenge and the reality is that I have a 4 in 5 chance of my favorite not winning and a 1 in 5 chance of my chalk, Public Sector, winning.  

Part of my dilemma is Public Sector will be the public betting pool chalk as well, almost undoubtedly at the top of the tote board when they break from the gate.   

 

While I always handicap the race without a bias, the bet construction is almost always pure bias.  The fundamental question: Do I ignore my opinion that Public Sector is the most accomplished and favorite here when I develop the bet construction or not?  

 

Leaving him in the win spot, perhaps even singling him, can be a good bet as there will be confusion in the field and value can fill out the exacta spot.  I should have mentioned that also, I'm almost exclusively an exacta player.  Can I find value singling Public Sector and building a case for value in the Place spot?  Possibly, with such a big field I think it's unlikely Public Sector will be bet down below his morning line odds of 5-2, perhaps 2-1 is the ceiling.  

 

If I want to win at my opportunity cost return on investment of 40% I need to not over cover and be decisive.  Let's take a look at the base handicap and some video and then think about the bet construction a bit more.  

Let's get after it!

 The Twilight Derby G2 10/31/21; 1 1/8 Miles Firm Turf SA

 The Hill Prince Stakes G2 10/23/21; 1 1/8 Miles Firm Turf BEL The Del Mar Derby G2

 

The Del Mar Derby G2 9/4/2021; 1 1/8 Miles Firm Turf DMR  

 

The Hall of Fame G2 8/6/21; 1 Mile Firm Turf SAR

What to make of all this?  When you are at the track, or even at home streaming the video, you don't have the time it takes to deep dive 14-15 horses between races.  The effort I put into handicapping for a blog entry is more than double the time I would spend studying if I was just playing the card.  The time difference can be described as not following the 80-20 rule.  You have to be able to do 80 of the work in 20 percent of the time.  I do 100% of the work for a Blog because I never know when I'm looking at a really interesting scenario and, people are reading this, they deserve maximum effort.  

With the 80-20 rule I take no more than 10 mins flowing through the field and breaking into four piles: the Toss Pile, and then Win- Win Place- Show-Exotic.  I represent those four colors in my base handicap with BLUE- YELLOW-PURPLE and RED.  I waste no time agonizing over the Toss pile.  there is no time for that.  Can those horses beat you?  Absolutely, but no time for that now.  

As I'm focused on Exacta, I have three general archetypes:  A singled runner and a few horses in Place; a boxed grouping of potential Win-Place candidates; a small group of potential Winners over a group of potential Place.  I've been doing this for a very long time, and I see patterns in these fields and races that fit into the archetypes and I see no reason to reinvent my wheel.  As I said  earlier, I plan on following the rarest of my archetypes, a singled Win candidate.  I say its rare because I want chaos, I want the favorite to lose and typically I bet the favorite to fall right out of the top 2 to create the highest value exacta possible.  With a field this size, with the traffic that will be in place, so much luck goes into the ride that a horse needs everything to fall into place perfectly.  Not to go off tangent, but that was the brilliance of Zenyatta, who was so talented could overcome a bad break or bad trip.  Few horses ever come close to matching Zenyatta in talent.  Very very few.  

Public Sector/6 will be singled.  Chad Brown is so dominant: 23% turf winners with 986 starts, 19% graded stakes in 340 starts, 27% 2nd off 45 -180 day layoff in 195 starts.  Three straight graded stakes turf wins.  A Race high 458 Tomlinson number, 8 of 9 lifetime on Turf in the money.  

So who makes the cut for consideration into the Place Spot?  I have eight potentials: 

• Subconscious/12
• Shifting Sands/8
• Flashiest/7
• Hudson Ridge/5
• Zoffarelli (Ire)/10

and

• Beyond Brilliant/2
• Cathkin Peak (Ire)/3
• Santin/14

I'm not going to do it but to illustrate, a 6 OVER 12-8-7-5-10-2-3-14 $2 exacta bet would cost $16.  I'm not saying you can't win with a bet like that, but you won't win enough to cover the times you'll lose a bet like that.  Let's get to work chopping that bet down to size. Remember, to find value, something about each of these horses you won't like.  It's easy to find reasons not to back a horse, focus on why you should back them.  

Subconscious/12 could easily be in my win column.  Trainer Mandella has a very sharp gelding on his hands with three straight wins, a nice Grade 2 win in the Twilight Derby, and a Del Mar win in August. Will be bet hard and my best case scenario is Tapit's son finishes no better than Show.  

Shifting Sands (GB)/8 is a Chad Brown runner that you have to wonder why he shipped here except to compete.  An equally gaudy 424 Tomlinson number to Public Sector's. Very classy.  A good summer at Saratoga.  First Del Mar outing.  

Flashiest/7 ran well taking place in the Del Mar Derby in September.  Very late and good speed.  The gelding has to navigate traffic and put himself in position for a late break.  The Del Mar outing may cause more public support than we'd like.

Hudson Ridge/5 incredible class, hasn't put it together.  Baffert puts Mike Smith up.  Blinkers off.  Very sharp morning works.  Lots of potential.  

Zoffarelli (Ire)/10 five Places in 9 turf starts.  Talented enough, also has yet to put it all together so far.  

Beyond Brilliant/2 will bring lots of early speed.  4 of 4 in the money over turf with one win here at Del Mar in September.  Stepping up in class from comfort zone of OC N1X, was ok for Show in G2 Twilight Derby.  

Cathkin Peak (Ire)/3 has good late speed, last two races gone off at big prices and was Place and Fourth respectively.  Winless in 4 starts in 2021, 4 Win-Places in 7 turf starts.  Morning Line 6-1, I obviously thought less of the gelded runner.  

Finally, Santin/14 is Morning Line 10-1.  Lightly raced, just 3rd start, with two wins already.  The Godolphin Team shipped for a reason, they are really entering deep end of pool.  Late speed.  

Many of my betting decisions with a group of potential Place finishers this large would be driven by the Tote Board odds.  In the absence of that, I think my initial thoughts are to:

Single Public Sector/6 OVER Shifting Sands (GB)/8, Flashiest/7, Hudson Ridge/5, Zoffarelli (Ire)/10    a $2 Bet for $8.  

Have fun with it friends.  Turk Out!