Handicapper's Corner: 2021 Cigar Mile (G1)

The Incomparable, Invincible, Unbeatable Cigar (Mile)

By: Alex Sausville, Off the Turf Podcast

The Cigar Mile (G1) is known as one of the flagship races for the handicap division post Breeders’ Cup.   

What was formerly the NYRA Mile adopted the surname of one of the greatest horses to step onto the racetrack. A horse who transcended the racing game during his time by representing the United States in style by capturing the first ever rendition of the Dubai World Cup, on top of his many scintillating performances. 

Cigar had fans spanning the globe during his racing career, however my dad needed him to edge out Louis Quatorze for 2nd in the ‘96 Breeders’ Cup Classic, but even he loved Cigar. We honor this amazing horse with a race that has proved lots of thrills through its inception. It is not always the most star-studded affair being this late in the season, but it always provides a competitive race and this year is no exception.

 

My Analysis:

I hate to be looked at as someone who is jumping on the Runhappy bandwagon lately, but even with his slow start that has now picked up in recent times I think he has a very smart horse in Following Sea. 

This Spendthrift runner’s dominant win in the GII Vosburgh gets downgraded due to the size of the field around him, however there is little doubt in my mind that only a handful of horses in the country could have beaten him on that day as aired in the stretch. 

Following Sea is a strong one turn horse and was able to step out of his element in the GI Haskell to be 3rd(Placed 2nd) to Mandaloun and Hot Rod Charlie for his first stakes attempt. I was devastated with the traffic trouble he received at the Breeders’ Cup with a trip that if all went right could have seen him posed for a big upset on the day. I think this is the right field for him to face to get a Grade 1 to end the season and even despite a strong sprinter's pedigree, he should be able to handle a  one turn mile just fine.

 

The Big A was one of my favorite tracks as a young kid, and even so its a track that some horses just take a liking to as well. That was the case for a young promising Kentucky Derby trail contender named Independence Hall. 

One of the first real sparks we saw during a red hot season for sire Constitution, Independence Hall dazzled in the GIII Remsen at 2 and opened up New Year’s Day with a strong win in the Jerome Stakes. 

Despite a lot of traveling and a less than formful campaign, there are few horses that can match Independence Hall's level of consistency. He’s never finished worse than 5th, placed in the GI Pegasus World Cup and is coming off of back to back strong efforts in Kentucky culminating with a win in GII Hagyard Fayette, as well as a stall in the WinStar breeding shed. 

He’s definitely a live chance in here especially getting back to Aqueduct, however I think that angle will be a bit overplayed and I would side with Following Sea if placing a win bet.

 

Morning line favorite goes to Americanrevolution, another from the Pletcher barn who has performed very well against New York bred company this season and put together a strong Grade 1 placing in the Pennsylvania Derby. 

He torched the field of the Empire Classic LTO by 11 3/4 lengths which is why a lot of the backing is surrounding him early. In my opinion, the field he beat that day had several smart gallopers but many that are a bit past their primes. 

Horses like Mr. Buff and Sea Foam have been incredibly tough NY breds but have lost a step and looking at the field as a whole I don’t know if Americanrevolution beat much on the day. I don’t see any reason other than margin and one okay effort at Parx losing to two good horses, ahead of a slew of not good horses. I am willing to play against entirely in this spot.

 

My Plays:

$40 Win - 1 Following Sea = $40

$20 Exacta Box - 1,5 = $40

$5 Exacta Box - 1,5/6 = 20

Total = $100

 

Final Thoughts:

I am going to stick with the two horses I like on top, and give one safety exacta using the California shipper Ginobili in case he puts together a decent effort. 

He’s been very strong in recent efforts winning the Pat O’Brien and finishing 2nd at the Breeders’ Cup, however any form not coming from Del Mar in the past year or so has been very disappointing. 

If it is a case of him just improving at the right time then I will hope one of my top two will be there. If not, then expect Following Sea to get a much cleaner trip and expect Independence Hall to have a great day, at the Big A!