Messier could streak to Los Alamitos Futurity victory
By: Laurie Ross, Pedigree Power
Bob Baffert has the double threat of Messier and Barossa, and is seeking his eighth straight and 14th overall win in the Los Alamitos Futurity.
The former Grade 1 Futurity has lost luster in recent years, seeing the number of entries dwindle from double digits a dozen years ago to the typical four to six-horse fields in recent years, plus a decline in status to a Grade 2.
Out of the six Futurity winners to make it Kentucky in the last decade, one Futurity winner (Dortmund, 20014) hit the board with a third place in the Derby.
A small field of five colts will contest 1 1/16-miles at Los Alamitos in race nine on Saturday.
Messier hopes to follow in the hoofprints of 2016 Los Alamitos winner Mastery, who captured the Bob Hope Stakes in his previous start.
Despite being fast enough to win sprints, the Baffert trainee's pedigree is full of classic stamina, from sire Empire Maker to Messier's first four dams, Smart Strike, A.P. Indy, Seeking the Gold, and Halo. Additionally, his dam is a multiple-stakes winner, and his third dam is a Canadian champ. Win contender.
Slow Down Andy raced wide while pressing the pace in the restricted 13-horse Golden State Juvenile on Breeders' Cup Friday. Unfortunately, the Doug O'Neil trainee lost focus in the stretch while racing between horses, and got back on track late, to miss the victory by a half-length the more experienced multiple graded placed Finneus.
Nevertheless, it was an excellent effort for Slow Down Andy's second career start. Slow Down Andy's full brother Team Merchants is a stakes-winning turf miler and the pair claim a distant kinship to Bernardini through the distaff line. Win contender.
Barossa improved in his second start at Del Mar to finish a distant third, bested 5 1/4 lengths by Oviatt Class in a one-mile maiden event.
He won his next start over the less experienced Durante and then was tossed to the wolves in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, where he was beaten 14 lengths by stablemate Corniche.
I don't think he's as good as stablemate Messier, but Barossa is also the only one in the field with experience at 1 1/16 miles. Exotics.
In October, Durante dueled with Barossa in a one-mile maiden event, and grudgingly gave way, beaten only a half-length.
Next time out at the same distance, the O'Neil trainee stumbled slightly at the start but quickly cleared the field and held on to win by a half-length.
Durante is a speedball with excellent gate speed, but he paddles with his right foreleg, runs with his head up and doesn't keep a straight path down the lane.
Despite having the pedigree to go longer, Durante is running on talent and is still putting things together. Unfortunately, the extra half-furlong will be his undoing. He doesn't know where he's going, but he's sticking with it. Lower exotics.
Olympic Legend's claim to fame is that he beat Messier in a maiden race in June at Laurel Park. However, the Luis Mendez trainee was well-beaten in his last two outings by a combined 28 lengths. Toss.
Analysis
The favorite has won or placed in nine of the last ten editions of the Los Alamitos Futurity, so there's a good chance that whichever Baffert horse is favored at post time will win. Yawn.
The typical Futurity sets up with the favorite pressing the pace, no more than two lengths back, before making their move in the stretch.
Both Messier and Barossa have this running style. I'm giving the nod to Messier, as he's the class of the field and is bred to improve with maturity.
Slow Down Andy showed a lot of heart, finishing second against state-breds on Breeders' Cup Friday. He lost focus in the stretch as the wall of noise from the crowd hit him, but Slow Down Andy recovered late. I think he learned a lot that day and should give a good accounting.
#3 Messier (1-2)
#5 Slow Down Andy (5-1)
#4 Barossa (5-1)
#2 Durante (9-2)
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