Fireworks at the Spa: Handicapping the Belmont Oaks
By: Stuart Marc deVoe, ThoroFan Handicapper
Happy 250th, America! You don’t look a day over 225. What better place could there be to eat hot dogs and drink a cold beer on the 4th of July than Saratoga Race Course?
NYRA has put together a stellar card for the festivities, and The Belmont Oaks is one of four graded stakes on offer. As one would expect, a competitive cast of 10 has signed up for this prestigious G1 for 600k.
Post time is 4:06 PM ET. Projected Track Condition: Firm, good, soft? Really, who knows? It’s Saratoga, where storms pop up randomly.
Let’s look at the field:
1. Just Aloof (8-1) Some will say this is “The other Chad” as Chad Brown also sends out Fitz Right for whom his main rider Flavien Prat “chose” over this one. ‘Aloof may be overlooked in this spot off that. But she’s a horse that has tactical speed from the inner turf rail, seems improving and is a neck and a half from being undefeated. She’s kept good company and will face a few familiar faces in here. Any improvement, which Chad seems competent in doing, puts her right there. Manny Franco picks up the mount, which is fine. He makes the most of it when given the opportunity.
2. Time to Dream (12-1) Looked like the goods last year, winning her 1st two starts over this course. She went off 4-1, 2nd choice (behind today’s foe, Ultimate Love) in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf last fall. I’m not so sure she has taken a step forward from her 2yo form to her 3yo form. Her last race, again at Saratoga, was a step in the right direction.
3. Kensington Lane (IRE) (10-1) This Irish-bred from the yard of Donnacha O’Brien has run 3 times this year. She won a G3 and was beaten 5 3/4 lengths in a G1 at the Curragh. Her pressing running style concerns me as US races are generally run at sharper paces. Can she carry the speed another eighth of a mile?
4. Faithful Departed (5-1) Has already won at today’s distance while taking the G3 Regret at Churchill. What a dream trip she had that day, riding the rail and catching a split in the stretch. The foes she beat both had wide trips, with one of them in today (Storm’s Wake) and the other, who came back and won by 5 lengths on Stephen Foster Day at Churchill last weekend. I’m wary of perfect trip winners right back.
5. Storm’s Wake (10-1) Ran a bang up second to the aforementioned Faithful Departed in the Regret G3 last out. Storm’s Wake ran an improved race visually. Not only was she hooked wide on both turns, but, as a deep closer, she put herself much more into the race. Don’t hold the fact that she lost ground in the stretch against her. She is a strong closer, but just gave up too much ground to the rail-skimming winner. Her trainer Brian Lynch has been on a tear this year with a 25% strike rate.
6. Fitz Right (6-1) As mentioned, Flavien sticks here for Chad. I get it. She’s won 3 in a row “climbing” the class ladder. She’ll appreciate the added ground. But, again, she’s coming off a perfect trip win and will most likely be shorter than her 6-1 ml. She seems like a grinder to me and will need to trip out against the likes of these. This is the toughest group to date.
7. Carmenista (ARG) (30-1) Will be the longest shot on the board. She did close in a decent allowance race on Belmont Day, but the top two finishers ran away from her in the stretch. I think there are other stronger closers in this field.
8. Abashiri (GB) (5-2) It’s no secret that Charlie and Godolphin send the right horses here for these races. Abashiri (GB) sure looks the part. Yes, she has only one win, on synthetic last year, on her scorecard. But her two runs this year, one in the English 100 Guineas and the other in the Irish version 3 weeks hence, were bangers. Her company lines are simply better than those she faces here. That said, she also has that Euro forward style and will be the betting favorite.
9. Ultimate Love (10-1) She entered last year’s Breeders’ Cup undefeated and was bet to favoritism. She ran well. Didn’t really finish but ran well. Her comeback race this year was in the Hilltop, a 125k stake at Laurel on Black Eyed Susan day. She ran ok but didn’t pick up a loose leader. Again, she didn’t really finish but ran well. Those efforts aren’t going to be good enough against these. Perhaps she improves immensely. She’ll have to. You will get paid if she does. I’ll wait and see…
10. Imaginationthelady (4-1) What’s she done wrong? She’s progressed from her 2yo form, where she just missed against Storm’s Wake and then won the Edgewood G2 on the Oaks undercard. She gives you an honest try every time, puts herself in good spots and doesn’t seem to need any particular type of track. On the downside, she also was a perfect trip winner in her last and breaks from the outside. I would want more than her 4-1 morning line, but it wouldn’t surprise me if she was right in the picture again.
SUMMARY
I’m not solving any great mysteries here by telling you that Charlie Appleby and his Blue Brigade will be tough here. The odds board will tell you that.
What I can offer you is that you will see some improved efforts from a few of these at fair prices, and that’s where my focus will land.
Storm’s Wake at 10-1 ml and Just Aloof at 8-1 ml offer great value. Of the two, I lean slightly more with Storm’s than Aloof because I like when dead closers get more aggressive in their races. They have less to do in the stretch.
THE BET: (based on $100 wagered)
$30 win Storm’s Wake
$6 exacta box Storm’s Wake, Just Aloof, Abashiri (GB)
$10 exacta box Storm’s Wake & Abashiri
$14 straight Exacta Abashiri – Storm’s Wake
