Handicapper's Corner: 2026 Kentucky Derby (G1)

 

It's Derby Time!

The collective minds of ThoroFan Handicappers give their 2026 Kentucky Derby picks for first through third place, plus a longshot wildcard!   

Good Luck to everyone and Happy Derby Day!

 

HANDICAPPER	FIRST	SECOND	THIRD	FOURTH
Michael Amo	Emerging Market	The Puma	So Happy	Potente
John Caro	Further Ado	Commandment	Danon  Bourbon	Golden Tempo
Nick Costa	Commandment	Further Ado	Renegade	Emerging Market
Stuart Marc deVoe	Commandment	Emerging Market	Chief Wallabee	Incredibolt
Robert Marks	Emerging Market	Commandment	Further Ado	Golden Tempo
MaryJo Moncheski	The Puma	Golden Tempo	So Happy	Albus
Laurie Ross	Commandment	Renegade	So Happy	Incredibolt

 

Handicapper's Corner: 2026 Royal Heroine (G3)

 

More questions than answers in Grade 3 Royal Heroine

By: Stuart Marc DeVoe, ThoroFan Handicapper

We have a potential bankroll builder for next week’s Derby festivities at Santa Anita on Saturday!  

The Grade 3 Royal Heroine at a mile on the grass lines up 9 runners in a very competitive edition.  This race is named after the Hall of Fame mare who won the inaugural running of the Breeders’ Cup Mile in 1984.  She set a North American record for a mile on grass in doing so.  I don’t believe there are any Breeders’ Cup types in this affair, but it looks entertaining nonetheless.

Spotlighted as the closing race 9, post time for the $100,000 event is 5:09 PM PT (8:09 PM ET).  

Let’s look at the field:

1.   Innovative (15/1)  It looked as though D’Amato was progressing this then 3yo fill through her conditions last year.  She went from a maiden winner in May to a G3 winner in September.  Something must have gone amiss in her last start back in October.  Phil is good off the layoff and if one can forgive the poor effort that was followed by time away, one can give this gal an outside look.  She will be a price.

2.  Tirupati (9/2)  Interestingly, Jonathan Thomas and owner Augustin Stables claimed this mare back for 50k after losing her for 25k back in the fall of 2024.  They’ve been rewarded with a G3 Wilshire win last March.  Like Innovative to her inside, that win was followed by a dismal effort and a layoff.  But unlike her rival, Tirupati has had a prep race back where she ran poorly in the Monrovia down the dip.  It looks like they gave her one, and she is ready to go.  Thomas has good states going sprint to route as well as 2^nd race off a layoff.  A lot to like here.

3.  A Thousand Miles (15/1)  A front-running sort who takes them as far as she can.  She almost held on at 95-1 in the Autumn Miss last October before winning the Zia Park Oaks on dirt.  She gets “Big Money” Mike Smith in the boot, but may be a cut below these.

4.  Ripassare (10/1)   I don’t know what to make of Phil D’Amato’s second entry in here.  He is her third trainer in what will be her seventh start.  She looked to have promise early and hasn’t run poorly of late at Turfway.  Why only 6 starts as a 5-year-old?  Why all the barn changes?  I have more questions and not many answers, other than her Beyer speed numbers haven’t increased from her 3-year-old year to now.   

5.  May Day Ready (9/2)  Speaking of barn changes, Dick Mandella takes over from Joseph Lee with this 4-year-old filly.  She was very competitive against some of the best turf fillies of her crop. Lee did a great job with her.  He won the G2 Lake Placid at Saratoga with her.  I’m willing to forgive the Valley View effort, as nothing went her way that day.  Mr. Mandella has trained a horse or two in his day, and if you subscribe to the idea that East Coast racing is a bit stronger these days, then you must like May Day Ready.  If she progresses at all, she will be tough.

6.  Rosie Jeeks (15/1)  A former Chad Brown protégé, Rosie Jeeks is now in the hands of Neil Drysdale.  It looks like she went through a sale last fall (sold for $300K) and has had 2 West Coast runs.  Her last was a neck loss down at Turf Paradise in a $30k stake.  That doesn’t class up to these, and I will take a wait-and-see position on her.

7.  Watchtower (6-1)  Her form may be a bit dirtied up.  She pulled up in her last race, and her last win was in October of 2024.  She owns a few minor placings since then but never loses by much.  Her Beyer numbers are in the mid-80s, which puts her in the mix.  I don’t think she’s kept better company than she faces today, so with that, another minor placing?

8.  Take a Breath (4/1)  She’s had some success going longer than today’s assignment recently.  She did win a few mile races across the pond before coming in a decent fourth in last year’s Del Mar Oaks (G1).  She may get a bit of a pace to run into, and if that is the case, the cutback may be in her favor.  Hot jockey and trainer combo.  A lot to like, and she is one of the ones.

9.  Grand Slam Smile (5-2)  Our morning line favorite.  What a fun mare!  She has never been out of the money in 19 tries!  Her stakes success has come in the Cal-Bred ranks.  It looks like she tries hard every time and will need a bit extra wading into Grade 3, open company.  There is nothing in her form that says she can’t run with these.  She is right there, if not better than most with Beyers.  I’m not sure I want to take a favorite from an outside post with speed going a mile on grass at Santa Anita. 

 

SUMMARY 

I find myself with a lot more questions than answers when looking at the race.  Layoffs.  Barn changes.  Cutbacks. Pace dynamics.  I feel like if they ran this race 10 times, you may find 4 or 5 different winners.  It will come down to the trip and how the race unfolds. 

And when betting on horses, in this situation, one must demand a price.  If I had to just pick a winner, it would be May Day Ready.  She has the most upside, run against very solid competition and has done nothing wrong.  She won’t be anywhere close to her 9/2 morning line.  To bet on Take a Breath or Grand Slam Smile, I would need 6/1 or better, and I don’t think that’s happening either.   

That leaves me with Tirupati.  I’m guessing she will be the fourth choice or so.  That should be higher than her 9/2 morning line and closer to 7/1 or 8/1.  She’s inside, second off a layoff, good trainer/jockey combo and hopefully a good price…here’s hoping.     

THE BET:  (based on $100 wagered)

$100 win Tirupati.  Any other type of bet is even more guessing than this. 

 

Handicapper's Corner: 2026 Oaklawn Handicap (G2)

 

    Top 3-year-olds vulnerable in Oaklawn 'Cap

By: Robert Marks, (@theyreinthegate)

We have a Grade 2 Handicap race at Oaklawn Park this Saturday, 4-year-olds and upward with a $1,250,000 purse. We have a short but competitive field featuring well-known older horses, including Horse of the Year Sovereignty. Featured as race 11 of 12, the Oaklawn Handicap post time is 6:20 PM CT.  

Here is who we like:

White Abarrio (7-2) Trained by Joseph Saffie with Irad Ortiz Jr., the Jockey, this horse is our best value win bet. Although Sovereignty may be your likely winner no way we can bet Sovereignty, a 4-5 horse in such a short field. With White Abarrio, you get a proven older horse (7 years old), Elite back class (7.7 million in earnings) and strong tactical speed, which is needed in what we expect to be a moderate but honest pace. He’s also well rested with a 2-month layoff. If this horse should float to 4-1 or higher odds, hammer him at the windows. And with a beautiful gray coat coming out of the 1 hole, he will be easier to spot and follow.

   Publisher (15-1) trained by Steve Asmussen with son Erik Asmussen aboard, we like this double-digit odds horse as a live longshot. He won his last race at Oaklawn Park at 1 1/16 and is 3-3 over this race course. His tactical style fits the moderate pace we expect. And with money we expect to flow towards Journalism and Sovereignty, we think he may go off more like 20-1. He is definitely not your fastest horse if you go by speed figures, but you could argue he is the hottest horse with 3 straight wins. The jockey knows the horse and knows the track well. Publisher is improving at the right time, and his strong tactical style suits the race pace.

Journalism (5-2). This Michael McCarthy-trained 4-year-old Horse with Jose Ortiz on board has plenty of black type wins as he picked up Grade 1 wins last year in the Santa Anita Derby, the Preakness Stakes and the Haskell Stakes and ran 8 races with triple-digit speed figures. He is all class and always competes.

He has a strong late pace. The only caveat is that he has not raced since finishing 4^th in last year’s BC Classic, which is a 5-month layoff. Maybe that helps his odds to float up come post time.  

Analysis

This will be an interesting race. We have 2 horses, Journalism and Sovereignty, coming into this race with 5 months and 7 months off, respectively. At 4-5, we can’t bet Sovereignty off a 7-month layoff. We know trainer Bill Mott is great at spotting his horses and timing these races, but we just feel Sovereignty needs one race before we throw down dollars on the favorite.

We look for a moderate pace with White Abarrio making a move at the final turn, with Publisher and Journalism moving up the final sixteenth.

Hoping to get Publisher on top at the wire. We hope to hit a Trifecta, and then an Exacta, boxing our 3 highlighted horses with a value win bet on Publisher. As always, watch the horses in the paddock and the odds as Post time approaches, and then make final selections accordingly.

Bets: $100 dollar Budget

$5 Trifecta Box: White Abarrio, Publisher, Journalism (total bet $30)

$10 Exacta Box:   White Abarrio, Publisher, Journalism (total bet $60)

$10 Win Bet: Publisher (Total bet: $10)

 

Handicapper's Corner: 2026 Apple Blossom Stakes (G1)

 

 Longshots can Bloom in Apple Blossom Stakes

By: John Caro, ThoroFan Handicapper 

The $1.25 million Grade 1 Apple Blossom Stakes features nine older fillies and mares traveling 1 1/16 miles over the Oaklawn Park oval.

The track should be fast, but the par speed listed on the Brisnet form (100) is in question from my perspective. I think the par is closer to 97.

We have several who like to be on the lead, with many who like to track a leader. If the track plays as usual, closers will be left behind, relegated to the bottom of the exotics.

Carded as Race 10 of 12, post time is 5:47 PM CT. Let’s review the field.

#1 Nitrogen – Casse/Ortiz, J – She has never been out of the money in 14 starts, with half of them wins. She has the most graded-stakes experience and $2+ million in earnings to her credit. Last out she didn't appreciate the wet track and didn't finish in a straight path. She lost to the next two listed below. 9/5 odds. Always a Contender.

#2 Majestic Oops – Ward/Arrieta  - Won the Azeri last out against Nitrogen, loves Oaklawn with 8 races, 4 wins and 2 placings. Arrieta was aboard for three of those wins shown on the form. She's a tracker and can close to finish from midpack as well. Good choice for a win contender at a good price 9-2.

#3 Regaled – Beckman/Ramos  - She is a late closer and used that talent to finish second behind Majestic Oops in the Azeri by 3/4. Has had 15 starts on fast tracks with two wins, one placing and four thirds. In her four starts on off track conditions, she hasn't been out of the exacta and won twice. If the track was wet, I'd give her a shot. Bottom of exotics.

#4 Dazzling Move – Joseph/Gonzalez  - Recent form doesn't look so good, but she's been off for 77 days with six works and adds blinkers for this one. Looking back at her races, she was competitive and speedy when going to the front. I think Saffie has a plan, and Gonzalez is the type of rider that can move her on the front or nearly so. Could make an impression on the pace and will likely be in the lower exotics. 15-1

#5 Om N Joy -  Ordonez/Desormeaux  - Her races have, for the most part, been against state-bred or restricted races. This will be quite a test. She's only had one race this year, about 35 days ago. Two works since her last, and is a closer when she wins. Think the competition will be too much, given her speed figures going a route of ground. Toss

#6 Nerazurri – Casse/Torres  - Her form is excellent, and she loves Oaklawn with 4 races, 3 wins and a placing this year. Likes the lead but doesn't need it to win. Although not tested against this level, except for her place finish against Nitrogen at this track, gives me confidence that she will show up in the exotics and my surprise with a win. Must use. 6-1

#7 Five G – Weaver/Velasquez  - Last seen winning with Johnny V up against lesser going a mile. She's had some good wins, including the Gulfstream Oaks and a second in the Honeybee here last year. Johnny put her on the bridle last year in the Cash Run and won by 9. He could put her on the lead and stroll through the backstretch and leave them flat-footed if others let him get away with it. Dangerous at 10-1.

#8 Claret Beret – Joseph/Husbands  - She likes to come from off the pace as she did at Gulfstream, going the distance in the Royal Delta, winning by 5 lengths. I believe if she moves closer to the pace, she can close with the best in the field. Must use at 8-1.

#9 Blue Fire – Asmussen/Geroux  - Coming from the outside post is not helping her front-running style going against smaller fields but Geroux is a patient rider and skilled at making a move at the right point in a race. At 15-1 I'll use him in the exotics and a small win wager given her late pace figure.

Handigambling menu….you must decide how large your wagers should be.

Going to stick with #2 Majestic Oops on top and the 6, 7 and 8 are likely in the money

$.50 Trifecta – 2 with 1,6,7,8 with All   $14

$1 Exacta Box – 2,6,7,8,9   $20

$.50  Superfecta  - 8 with 2,7 with All with All  $42  (If available, a $.10 Super cost $8.40 but should pay well if the 8 is on top of 2 or 7)

Longshot player’s Win wagers on 6,7,8,9  Dutch your win wagers on theses four and play the exacta box above.

Like $6 win 9, $9 win 7, $11 win 8, & $14 win 6. Each would pay $96-99 given the ML odds.  

$60 total for the win and exacta box.