Handicapper's Corner: 2026 Fayette Stakes (G3)

 

 Fayette Stakes Betting Strategy can Boost Your Breeders' Cup Bankroll

BY: Robert Marks, (@theyreinthegate)

We have a Grade 3 race for 3 Year Olds and Upward at Keenland this Saturday- 1 1/8 miles with a $350,000 purse. We have a competitive field featuring 12 horses.

The 2026 Hagyard Fayette Stakes shapes up as a competitive race only 1 weekend before the Breeders’ Cup. As you load up your betting account for the Breeders Cup, just leave some in the Budget to bet this race as an appetizer to the big weekend coming up. 

Here is our analysis:

#7 Stars and Stripes at 3-1 is my top value selection. Bill Mott is the Trainer with Luis Saez the Jockey. What’s not to like? He owns the field's best speed figure of 108 (Brisnet) in his last race at Belmont (Jockey Club Gold Cup). His record shows 5 wins out of 10 starts. He also will have no problem going 2 turns. The 3-1 odds might be a bit short but if he goes off at Post time at 3-1 or higher he is a must use in your Exactas and Trifectas.

#4 Nevada Beach at 6-1 trained by Bob Baffert with Francisco Arrieta as the Jockey is my second selection. He comes into the race off a competitive 3^rd in the Grade 1 Goodwood Stakes, showing that this 4-year-old colt is still in great form. This came off a 7-month layoff.  His running style will put him near the pace, and speed wise I would put him second only to Stars and Stripes. He ran a 106-speed figure back in the Native Diver Stakes in 2025. At 6-1, if you think he is likely to improve on a 2^nd time out off a long layoff this looks like a logical contender to finish in the top three.

#2 This is Uscar at 10-1 Trained by Jordan Blair with Edgar Morales on board, is my third selection and perhaps the most interesting alternative to the shorter-priced horses. His Brisnet 100 speed figure in the 9/26/26 Lukas Classic (Grade II) puts him right there with the favorites.

His tactical running style will help should there be a contested hot early pace. This 5-year-old gelding is consistently in the money (15 times out of 21 starts) and with lesser-known connections I expect his odds to may float up to 12-1 or so, making him a sound pick at big odds.   

For a longshot, #10 Silent Tactic at 15-1 odds is my choice. This 3-year-old colt won the Oklahoma Debry on 9/27/26 after settling off the early pace and taking the lead. Also had a nice year overall, finishing 2^nd in the Arkansas Derby and 3^rd in the Jim Dandy at Saratoga this summer. He also ran in the Travers but was disappointing and was eased in the race. But his next time out in the Oklahoma Derby he won and was no worse for the wear. Plus, I love the Trainer /Jockey connections in Mark Casse and Javier Castellanno.

My value selections: #7 Stars and Stripes #6 Nevada Beach, #2 This is Uscar. Longshot: #10 Silent Tactic

Note: Irad Ortiz Jr broke his ankle on 10/22/26 and will not be the Jockey on # 1 Hit Show.

This will be an interesting race.  We look for a moderate to fast pace as most of the field are early pace setter types.  I see This is Uscar and Silent Tactic among the early leaders with Stars and Stripes and Nevada Beach finishing strong late.  As always watch the Horses in the Paddock and the odds as Post time approaches and then make final selections accordingly.

Bets: $100 dollar Budget

$5 Trifecta Box: Stars and Stripes, Nevada Beach, This is Uscar (total bet $30)

$10 Exacta Box:  Stars and Stripes, Nevada Beach, (total bet $60)

$5 Win Bet: Starts and Stripes (Total bet: $5)

$5 Place Bet: Silent Tactic (Total Bet: $5)