Feathers Could Fly in the Raven Run
By: John Caro, ThoroFan Handicapper
Saturday’s $400,000 Grade 2 Raven Run Stakes attracted a dozen 3-year-old fillies who will sprint seven furlongs over Keeneland’s main oval. Featured as race 9 of 10, post time is 5:16 PM ET. Let’s review the field.
Keeneland is a unique track and the way it plays for horses is also interesting. Some runners love it and others, well not so much. The other factor for this race is the distance. Not a route at seven furlongs but longer than most sprints. When we look at the graded stakes runners Explora (Baffert's) has been the major competition this season for the fillies. She's not going in this race but is headed to the Breeder's Cup.
It's good to watch the girls who competed with her and Always a Runner (Oaks Winner). It says a lot about the ability to compete at this level. That's not to say that any of these young ladies aren’t competitive, just some are a step above others.
I see this contest as a blistering first run to the turn and those that can be mid-pack and sustain a run in the last three sixteenths have a chance to beat the prohibitive favorite 9. Mashallah. I expect she will see pressure on the front from her inside by 1. Army Marauder with Saez on the rail and from the outside by 11. Movie Night as she did in the Dogwood at Churchill last month.
10. With A Kiss might join in the fray with Johnny V aboard as well. These four are lightning on the track in terms of their times not their Bris speeds. I'll give it to Mashallah who cuts a 45 or better second call but the other three can match her speed or better it.
8. Conceit cut back to 7 furlongs and is undefeated at the distance, including the Dogwood, winning by a head against Explora and Movie Night as the battles up front continued from 6-7 lengths back. That's my kinda Gal! She is 3 for 4 this year and Irad Ortiz is up. She does have some very nice closers that can show up as well.
12. Star Actress lost by a neck to 10. With A Kiss going 6 1/2 furlongs while returning to a sprint. Had she had more distance she may have won. 6. Percy's Bar who has crossed the finish line at Keeneland 3 out of 3, loves the track in addition to being a Grade I winner with a $1.1M in the bank she gets Jose Ortiz aboard becoming a very promising prospect.
7. A Fine Chardonnay will likely be overlooked and she has had some rough races but her best work is as a mid to late closer and she's 2 for 2 at Keeneland. Finally, the wildcard
2. Mythical. Most experienced filly in the field, lost by 5 lengths to 9. Mashallah in the Prioress but she has a history of sprinting that says she can be in the money. The other thing about her is Jaramillo is an aggressive rider when it's called for. That may play well for this race.
Bottom line is I can't wager on a favorite that pays $.50 or less on a dollar. But I see a reasonable way to profit if she doesn't win. Mashallah might blow me away but I'll take the risk given her company.
Handigambling
The menu below allows you to spend as little or as much as you dare for around $50
$.50 Trifecta — 8, 10, with 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, with 1,2,6,7,8,9,10,11,12 = $28
$1 Exacta Box — 1, 6, 8, 10, 12 = $20
Longshot wagers $50
$7 win 1 & 12 = $14
$1 Exacta — 6,8,10 with 1,2,7,12 = $16
$10 show 1 & 12 = $20
No comments:
Post a Comment