Handicapper's Corner: 2025 Raven Run Stakes (G2)

 Raven Run Handicapping: 

Where Speed Meets Strategy

By: John Caro, ThoroFan Handicapper

Keeneland is wrapping things up as we move to the Breeders’ Cup on the left coast. This is quite a race, and at 7 Furlongs it will be fast.

The competition is stiff with some fireball speedsters and some great closers, too.

It’s not always about their record of winning or losing, but who did they run with that can set them apart from the contenders. There are 12 runners and 3 AEs. Lots of choices.

We are looking for value in our plays here for this race. Temperatures should be dropping during the day, and if the 20% chance of rain comes into play, it may affect the outcomes. 

 #1 Delightful Claire – Bauer/Rosario  - She is one for four, has gone the distance twice, and her first try at Saratoga won by 9+ while tracking the pace against 9 others in a 100k maiden, and Rosario was up. Her last out, she tried to stay on the lead in the Dogwood, GIII, and was beaten in the stretch by #9 Ragtime by 2 34 lengths and a half length by #3 Strong State. She is a high cruiser who can push 44 seconds at the half when tracking. She may have lost focus in her last out. ITM and will likely be forward to attend the pace.

#2 Vixen – Casse/Gaffalione  - Nine lifetime starts all on the lawn, going longer and only out of the money once in the BC Juvenile Filly Turf, but has one Grade III win, a neck loss in a Grade I, two placings against Nitrogen (tough company) in Grade II company. She’s a very good filly, and oh BTW, has five great workouts at Churchill after her July layoff. This is the kind of longshot one could play with some confidence. Goes longer, takes a rest, has excellent workouts, is 20-1 ML, likes it mid pack and has a 25 mud index. If it’s wet look out for her.

#3 Strong State – Stall/Graham  - As noted above, she closed from some 8 lengths back to finish second to Ragtime in the Dogwood ahead of Delightful Claire at 28-1. She seems to stay in the back of the pack in her races and then make a move half the distance to the finish but with gusto. Closed last time out in 36 seconds but missed to Ragtime who got the jump earlier. This will be her third try against Graded company. Hard to know what instructions Graham will get but they are putting on Blinkers and she might be closer to the pace. Downside is she didn’t do well on muddy sealed track.

#4 Vollyballprincess – Linder/Torres – Has not done well against Graded company, and her times are pretty slow given today’s company. In her favor, she has a high middle pace but seems to lack the punch to finish in front, although her last work was a bullet at 59. Best closing time was 37.6 in the Ruthless at Aqueduct in February. She is not on my Christmas list for today.

#5 Om N Joy – Ordonez/Desormeaux – (Oh what a Nut) For some reason Brisnet doesn’t like her and is listed as 13th in the power ratings. I’m sorry but since the connections took her off the turf, she’s won five consecutive races moving up in class and won her last out in the Torrey Pines Grade III at DelMar. Desormeaux has been aboard for the last four stakes races, winning by good margins. She has won at the distance and going longer. Desormeaux has had her mid-pack and makes a steady move to finish with closing pace of up to 106. She had a three week rest after winning her last and put in three nice maintenance works since late September. Bonus, she has a mud index of 29. This is another one of those 15-1 longshots that just seems to fit. Think the connections have made a good choice to enter. With Desormeaux up I’ll be looking for an ITM finish.

#6 Reputation  - Delgado/Machado – She ran well in two of her races at the distance and then stumbled out of the gate in the Grade III Princess Ramsey at Gulfstream finishing third. Machado was up winning at Ellis Park going the distance in great time and a 37 second time from the second call. Finished in 36 in her best race going the distance. Has not faced this class of company, has run in smaller fields and has an average mud index. Nice work a week ahead and Luan has made some great moves against better horses. Bottom of the exotics.

#7 Maida – Russell/Russell – Top Maryland trainer and husband Sheldon is eighth leading jockey in the country as of January 2025. Maybe they are just here for a weekend away with the kids? No, Maida has won 3 of her last four starts by a total of 21+ lengths lifetime with a 99 Bris speed going 6 Furlongs against lesser company. Don’t be fooled as this is a front running pace horse who will likely lead the field. Will she be caught? Not proven in class or at the distance but she will have a say so in the outcome with her high cruising speed as a leader. ITM at 10-1...maybe higher.

#8 Usha – Baffert/Ortiz, I. Jr. – Great trainer – jockey hook up for a horse who has two wins under Baffert’s tutelage. No Graded stakes races but visually impressive grabbing the lead in the back stretch riding the rail to win by 5 lengths going 6.5 Furlongs at Del Mar on September5th. Del Mar is typically a speed favoring track and I don’t know if she ran with Lasix or not. Keeneland has a little different dirt that plays tougher, I think. Gives me some concern. In her favor is her strong work at 6 Furlongs prior to her last race and an equally strong 6 before this one with a 5 Furlong work to round her out which is a Baffert signature for these type races. A top contender but will face some here that can be roused to match her early speed.

#9 Ragtime – Mott/Alvarado  - She is a 7 furlong specialist with four under her and three wins with her only loss by a neck in The Test in August at Saratoga. Junior has been aboard for all of her races. Winning the Dogwood when was further back then her typical run but managed to beat some nice horses. Nice to know she can sit off a fast pace and make a move to win or be very close. Her mud index is average but she’s out of a Storm Cat mare from Union Rags so I don’t see a problem with that. The outside post should not be an issue either given her pace practice. My top pick.

Now we get to the two girls who ran in the Kentucky Oaks and have not been seen since. Scratch through their last race at the Oaks on a very bad track day for both below.

#10 Simply Joking – McCarthy/Dettori  - Up until the Oaks a fine animal who won the Silver Bullet Day at Fairgrounds on a sloppy sealed track. Came second to the filly below in the Fantasy in Oaklawn. So we know this gal can go a distance and has won going 6 furlongs, once. She has had some remarkably fast works at Santa Anita, really fast. And that’s good cause she is facing an outside post, traveling and others who like to roar. Is able to get 96 Bris speed in the slop even with an average mud index. Breeding says she is a player here. ITM

11 Quietside – Ortiz/Ortiz, JL – Her Oaks race was half as bad as the one above. Discount that one. The seven races before that where ITM with 3 wins and 3 second place finishes. JL has been aboard for two of her wins going longer. Both of those she was placed in the catbird seat tracking, once from the 12 post with 13 runners. I think she and JL can work out a trip here as well. She has an average mud index but has gone on a sloppy sealed track her second time out. Like her as an ITM runner who may surprise. 2nd pick

#12 Vodka With A Twist - D’Amato/Saez – Love the name but have lost money with her in the past, recently and have no faith that she can turn it around since her 4th place finish here going 6 Furlongs. She’s had three tries at 7 and been second in all three and catches and outside post. Her last win was in June 2024 in the mud at Churchill in the Debutant. Nope can’t see her making any noise for this event.

On to the Also Eligibles 😉

#13 Kappa Kappa – Reid/Sanchez  - She’s had three nice races, winning two against lesser company. Like to blast off to the front and in doing so does well but her speed figures are slow compared to present company. Awfully tough to overcome class, speed and run from the outside posts at Keeneland. Toss

#14 Taliesin – Solis/Pennington  - She is three for three at the distance against mid level company mostly at PARX. Pennington has been up for her last 7 races and won four with a high speed of 98 in shorter fields from the front when winning. She’s never been further away from the rail than post 7. Nice claiming filly from Vekoma out of an Into Mischief mare. Not one I would expect to show up.

#15 Tetiaroa – Bauer/Saez -  Good news is she shot a bullet work on the 3rd of the month and breezed again on the 11th. Another point in her favour is her maiden race in the wet at Churchill going 90 with a good finishing time winning by 6 with 12 others. Her last two race were awful and all due respect to the connections this would be an amazing achievement coming from an outside post where she’s never been to be ITM. Not for me.

 

Boy, that was a lot to digest.

Handigambling... I’m going to simplify my wagers. The weather and the post parade will tell me who is looking good. Pick a Menu item below. My best longshots wager is with the 2,5 & 7

$3 Exacta 9,10,11 with 1,2,3,5,6,7   $36

$10 Win on 2,5,7     $30

$2 Exacta Box 2,5,7     $12

If you must play a Trifecta $.50   9 with 1,2,3,5,6,7 with 1,2,3,5,6,7,10,11  $21

Good luck!

  

Handicaper's Corner: 2024 King's Plate Stakes

 King's Plate kicks off Canadian Triple Crown

By: Nick Costa, Trackside with Trackman

Hello everyone, this Saturday, ThoroFan heads north to Canada and visits Woodbine Racetrack, for the $1-million King’s Plate, the opening leg of the Canadian Triple Crown. The 1 1/4-mile race is North America’s longest continuously run stakes race.

Nine Canadian-bred three-year-old horses from three separate trainers make up more than two-thirds of the 13-horse field for the 165^th King’s Plate, including a formidable trio from conditioner Mark Casse, who is looking to win his fourth Plate. The “big three’ from the Casse stable are led by My Boy Prince, champion two-year-old of 2023 and Plate Trial winner. His stablemates, Essex Serpent and Midnight Mascot, finished first and third, respectively in the June 29^th G3 Marine Stakes.

The 2024 running of the King’s Plate won’t disappoint racing fans who root for the opposite sex, because what is the Plate without filly representation, right? Usually, the winner of the Woodbine Oaks heads to the Plate, but this year, the Oaks runner-up, Caitlinhrgreatness, trained by another Plate winning trainer Kevin Attard, challenges the boys. Attard will also saddle Jokestar, 5^th in the Plate Trial, Pierre, who is coming off a third-place allowance finish on the grass and the maiden, Bedard.

Recent maiden winner, Vitality and stablemate, Rafaroo, who is still a maiden, but was 2^nd in the Plate Trail, hail from the Harold LaDouceur barn.

Following the King’s Plate, the next stop on the Triple Crown Road will be at Fort Erie Racetrack, on September 10^th, for the Prince of Wales Stakes. The series will then conclude back at Woodbine on September 29^th, with the running of the Breeders’ Stakes. The last horse to sweep the series was Wando (2003).

Posttime for the Plate is 6:10 p.m. E.S.T.  

ANALYSIS:

7 – My Boy Prince is the deserving morning-line favorite and probable betting favorite. He comes into the Plate riding a three-race win streak and has won 6 of 10 lifetime starts with only a single out of the money finish. He appears to simply have a class edge over his Plate rivals and showed perseverance and determination when winning the Trail after rearing up at the start. However, legitimate concerns arise about the difficult Plate distance for this sprinter-miler, which allow a few others a chance to upset the 2-year-old champ.

2 – Rafaroo – Maiden outran his long odds in both his starts. He rallied from last in his debut to finish second and then stepped up significantly in class when testing deeper waters in the Plate Trial to be second best again. He made a quick move on the far turn, going wide into the lane. He chased the winner (My Boy Prince) home but ran out of real estate. With only two lifetime races, he may have more to offer, and his Plate Trial performance certainly proved he belongs with this group.

3 – Essex Serpent only began racing this season and sports an 2-1-0 record after just three starts, improving in each outing. He was the winner of the G3 Marine Stakes, and although he raced on the lead for much of the way over a speed favoring surface, it was an impressive and sharp score, nonetheless. His breeding suggests he will stay the distance.

4 - Caitlinhrgreatness led in the Oaks, only to be caught late. She had to be supplemented to the Plate for 25k, but fillies traditionally perform well in the event, having won 38 times and five out of the last 13 years. The filly has improved her form since arriving in Canada and recently drilled a five-furlong morning work. She fits here with the boys.

5 – Midnight Mascot – He rallied nicely over the speed-conducive track to finish non-threatening third in the G3 Marine Stakes, marking a much-improved effort. If he can build upon it, he has every chance to win. Looks like he will appreciate the added distance.

WAGER:

With our $100 mythical ThoroFan dollars, we will make the following wagers.

$50 win bet on Caitlinhergrtness

$20 exacta box Cailinhergrtness/My Boy Prince

$10 win saver Essex Serpent

Good luck and as always, enjoy the race!

 

 

      

 

 

Handicapper's Corner: 2023 Raven Run Stakes (G2)

 Alva Starr could fly away in Raven Run

By: Laurie Ross, Pedigree Power

The $350,000 Grade Two Raven Run attracted a field of nine 3-year-old fillies who will travel seven furlongs over Keeneland's main track. 

It's a quick turnaround to the Breeders' Cup Filly and Mare Sprint, so we may not see the winner take on her elders for the first time in the Grade 1 contest. However, Shamrock Rose pulled off the double in 2018 and was crowned Champion Female Sprinter.

Saturday will be partly cloudy, but the track should be fast. The Raven Run is carded as race 9 of ten with a 5:16 PM ET post time.

 

Let's take a look at the top contenders and live longshots.

7. Alva Starr (2-1) towers above the rest as the runaway 8 ¾ winner of the  Prioress Stakes (G2). Additionally, the Brett A. Brinkman trainee owns the only triple-digit Brisnet speed ratings in the field and earned them in her last two starts. Alva Starr is trying seven furlongs for the first time, but the pacesetter has :21 and change early speed and can carry it. She'll be tough to beat. Win contender.

4.   Vahva (3-1) is one of two fillies in the Raven Run with a victory at seven furlongs. She was last seen galloping home a 1 ¼ length winner in the seven-furlong  Charles Town Oaks (G3). This pace presser conditioned by Cherie DeVaux doesn't like to sit too far off the pace and has hit the board in seven of nine lifetime; however, she's never won consecutive races. Exotics.

9. Ancient Peace (10-1) placed second in the 1 1/16 mile Remington Park Oaks (G3) in her last start. It was her first start off the layoff and initial outing with her new trainer, Brian Lynch. It wasn't a bad effort, as she got a little tired and couldn't sustain her speed on the front end. War Front's daughter only wins when she's on the lead, and she hasn't shown the speed to stay with the top runners in this field. However, she should have the conditioning to hold on for a minor award. Exotics.

6. Dazzling Blue (KY) (9-2) won her first three starts as a pacesetter but was a runner-up both times she chased the pace. She finished third, 11 lengths behind Alva Star in the Prioress, but bested Vahva by 1 ½ lengths in the Victory Ride (G3). The Brad Cox trainee has the zip to run with Alva Star early if she's allowed to revert to her pacesetting style. Florent Geroux won with her as a pacesetter, so perhaps we'll see a duel on the front end. By Into Mischief, out of a stakes-winning daughter of Curlin, Dazzling Blue should have no issues carrying her speed. The only knock against her is that her late-pace figures are low. Lower exotics.

8. Lady Radler (5-1) won three of her last four starts, including the Dogwood Stakes (G3). She captured the seven-furlong Dogwood by 2 ¾ lengths despite being keyed up and tugging hard after checking early in the race. The   Michael Campbell trainee's speed ratings are inconsistent, and her late-pace figures are middling. Still, she has tactical speed and is worth an include for a lower exotic placing.

3. Nom de Plume (20-1) has run only three times and is a neck shy of being undefeated over turf and Tapeta. Although the Paulo Lobo trainee's speed ratings are in the 80's, she's improved in each start, and her late-pace figures fit with the upper echelon. Nom de Plume gets her first shot over dirt, but Uncle Mo's daughter should handle it just fine since her half-siblings win on dirt and her second dam is Personal Ensign (G1) heroine Shadow Cast. Paco Lopez's charges hit the board in 21% of stakes at Keeneland. One to consider for a longshot exotic play.

2. Simply Stated (10-1) steps into the "A" league after dominating at Penn National and  Presque Isle. Not a ringing endorsement, but she's won five of seven starts, and her speed ratings fit with this group. The Todd Beattie trainee gets the services of Luis Saez, who hits the board 46% of the time in sprints at Keeneland. Yes, she's taking a big class jump, but Simply Stated likes to win. One to consider for a longshot exotic play.

1. Lilly Poo (20-1) hasn't seen the winner's circle since April. The one-run closer was bested nine lengths by Vahva in her last start. Can't recommend.

5. Apple Picker (15-1) captured the Weather Vane Stakes at Pimlico in her last start. She either wins or finishes out of the money; there's no in-between with her. The Brittany Russell trainee struggles against optional claimers, and I don't see her being competitive in the Raven Run. Can't recommend.

 

Analysis

Nine of the last ten Raven Run heroines won or placed in their prep, and only one didn't prep in a stakes. Only two winners had a pacesetting style, closers won half the time, and only three favorites won.

While Alva Starr doesn't tick all the boxes for the historic winning profile, she's head and withers above this group. If she tosses a clunker or has to fight through fast fractions, Vahva can take advantage with her off-the-pace style. Nom de Plume also has tactical speed and is a promising young filly from a good family.

7. Alva Starr (2-1)

4.   Vahva (3-1)

3.  Nom de Plume (20-1)

6. Dazzling Blue (KY) (9-2)