Raven Run Handicapping:
Where Speed Meets Strategy
By: John Caro, ThoroFan Handicapper
Keeneland is wrapping things up as we move to the Breeders’ Cup
on the left coast. This is quite a race, and at 7 Furlongs it will be fast.
The competition is stiff with some fireball speedsters and
some great closers, too.
It’s not always about their record of winning or losing, but
who did they run with that can set them apart from the contenders. There are 12
runners and 3 AEs. Lots of choices.
We are looking for value in our plays here for this race.
Temperatures should be dropping during the day, and if the 20% chance of rain
comes into play, it may affect the outcomes.
#1 Delightful Claire – Bauer/Rosario - She is one for four, has gone the distance
twice, and her first try at Saratoga won by 9+ while tracking the pace against
9 others in a 100k maiden, and Rosario was up. Her last out, she tried to stay
on the lead in the Dogwood, GIII, and was beaten in the stretch by #9 Ragtime
by 2 34 lengths and a half length by #3 Strong State. She is a high cruiser who
can push 44 seconds at the half when tracking. She may have lost focus in her
last out. ITM and will likely be forward to attend the pace.
#2 Vixen – Casse/Gaffalione - Nine lifetime starts all on the lawn, going
longer and only out of the money once in the BC Juvenile Filly Turf, but has
one Grade III win, a neck loss in a Grade I, two placings against Nitrogen
(tough company) in Grade II company. She’s a very good filly, and oh BTW, has
five great workouts at Churchill after her July layoff. This is the kind of
longshot one could play with some confidence. Goes longer, takes a rest, has
excellent workouts, is 20-1 ML, likes it mid pack and has a 25 mud index. If
it’s wet look out for her.
#3 Strong State – Stall/Graham - As noted above, she closed from some 8
lengths back to finish second to Ragtime in the Dogwood ahead of Delightful
Claire at 28-1. She seems to stay in the back of the pack in her races and then
make a move half the distance to the finish but with gusto. Closed last time
out in 36 seconds but missed to Ragtime who got the jump earlier. This will be
her third try against Graded company. Hard to know what instructions Graham
will get but they are putting on Blinkers and she might be closer to the pace. Downside
is she didn’t do well on muddy sealed track.
#4 Vollyballprincess – Linder/Torres – Has not done
well against Graded company, and her times are pretty slow given today’s
company. In her favor, she has a high middle pace but seems to lack the punch
to finish in front, although her last work was a bullet at 59. Best closing
time was 37.6 in the Ruthless at Aqueduct in February. She is not on my
Christmas list for today.
#5 Om N Joy – Ordonez/Desormeaux – (Oh what a Nut)
For some reason Brisnet doesn’t like her and is listed as 13th in the power
ratings. I’m sorry but since the connections took her off the turf, she’s won
five consecutive races moving up in class and won her last out in the Torrey
Pines Grade III at DelMar. Desormeaux has been aboard for the last four stakes
races, winning by good margins. She has won at the distance and going longer.
Desormeaux has had her mid-pack and makes a steady move to finish with closing
pace of up to 106. She had a three week rest after winning her last and put in
three nice maintenance works since late September. Bonus, she has a mud index
of 29. This is another one of those 15-1 longshots that just seems to fit.
Think the connections have made a good choice to enter. With Desormeaux up I’ll
be looking for an ITM finish.
#6 Reputation -
Delgado/Machado – She ran well in two of her races at the distance and then
stumbled out of the gate in the Grade III Princess Ramsey at Gulfstream
finishing third. Machado was up winning at Ellis Park going the distance in
great time and a 37 second time from the second call. Finished in 36 in her
best race going the distance. Has not faced this class of company, has run in
smaller fields and has an average mud index. Nice work a week ahead and Luan
has made some great moves against better horses. Bottom of the exotics.
#7 Maida – Russell/Russell – Top Maryland trainer and
husband Sheldon is eighth leading jockey in the country as of January 2025.
Maybe they are just here for a weekend away with the kids? No, Maida has won 3
of her last four starts by a total of 21+ lengths lifetime with a 99 Bris speed
going 6 Furlongs against lesser company. Don’t be fooled as this is a front
running pace horse who will likely lead the field. Will she be caught? Not
proven in class or at the distance but she will have a say so in the outcome
with her high cruising speed as a leader. ITM at 10-1...maybe higher.
#8 Usha – Baffert/Ortiz, I. Jr. – Great trainer –
jockey hook up for a horse who has two wins under Baffert’s tutelage. No Graded
stakes races but visually impressive grabbing the lead in the back stretch
riding the rail to win by 5 lengths going 6.5 Furlongs at Del Mar on
September5th. Del Mar is typically a speed favoring track and I don’t know if
she ran with Lasix or not. Keeneland has a little different dirt that plays
tougher, I think. Gives me some concern. In her favor is her strong work at 6
Furlongs prior to her last race and an equally strong 6 before this one with a
5 Furlong work to round her out which is a Baffert signature for these type
races. A top contender but will face some here that can be roused to match
her early speed.
#9 Ragtime – Mott/Alvarado - She is a 7 furlong specialist with four
under her and three wins with her only loss by a neck in The Test in August at
Saratoga. Junior has been aboard for all of her races. Winning the Dogwood when
was further back then her typical run but managed to beat some nice horses.
Nice to know she can sit off a fast pace and make a move to win or be very
close. Her mud index is average but she’s out of a Storm Cat mare from Union
Rags so I don’t see a problem with that. The outside post should not be an
issue either given her pace practice. My top pick.
Now we get to the two girls who ran in the Kentucky Oaks and
have not been seen since. Scratch through their last race at the Oaks on a very
bad track day for both below.
#10 Simply Joking – McCarthy/Dettori - Up until the Oaks a fine animal who won the
Silver Bullet Day at Fairgrounds on a sloppy sealed track. Came second to the
filly below in the Fantasy in Oaklawn. So we know this gal can go a distance
and has won going 6 furlongs, once. She has had some remarkably fast works at
Santa Anita, really fast. And that’s good cause she is facing an outside post,
traveling and others who like to roar. Is able to get 96 Bris speed in the slop
even with an average mud index. Breeding says she is a player here. ITM
11 Quietside – Ortiz/Ortiz, JL – Her Oaks race was
half as bad as the one above. Discount that one. The seven races before that
where ITM with 3 wins and 3 second place finishes. JL has been aboard for two
of her wins going longer. Both of those she was placed in the catbird seat
tracking, once from the 12 post with 13 runners. I think she and JL can work
out a trip here as well. She has an average mud index but has gone on a sloppy
sealed track her second time out. Like her as an ITM runner who may
surprise. 2nd pick
#12 Vodka With A Twist - D’Amato/Saez – Love the name
but have lost money with her in the past, recently and have no faith that she
can turn it around since her 4th place finish here going 6 Furlongs. She’s had
three tries at 7 and been second in all three and catches and outside post. Her
last win was in June 2024 in the mud at Churchill in the Debutant. Nope can’t
see her making any noise for this event.
On to the Also Eligibles 😉
#13 Kappa Kappa – Reid/Sanchez - She’s had three nice races, winning two
against lesser company. Like to blast off to the front and in doing so does
well but her speed figures are slow compared to present company. Awfully tough
to overcome class, speed and run from the outside posts at Keeneland. Toss
#14 Taliesin – Solis/Pennington - She is three for three at the distance
against mid level company mostly at PARX. Pennington has been up for her last 7
races and won four with a high speed of 98 in shorter fields from the front
when winning. She’s never been further away from the rail than post 7. Nice
claiming filly from Vekoma out of an Into Mischief mare. Not one I would
expect to show up.
#15 Tetiaroa – Bauer/Saez - Good news is she shot a bullet work on the
3rd of the month and breezed again on the 11th. Another point in her favour is
her maiden race in the wet at Churchill going 90 with a good finishing time
winning by 6 with 12 others. Her last two race were awful and all due respect
to the connections this would be an amazing achievement coming from an outside
post where she’s never been to be ITM. Not for me.
Boy, that was a lot to digest.
Handigambling... I’m going to simplify my wagers. The
weather and the post parade will tell me who is looking good. Pick a Menu item
below. My best longshots wager is with the 2,5 & 7
$3 Exacta 9,10,11 with 1,2,3,5,6,7 $36
$10 Win on 2,5,7
$30
$2 Exacta Box 2,5,7
$12
If you must play a Trifecta $.50 9 with
1,2,3,5,6,7 with 1,2,3,5,6,7,10,11 $21
Good luck!
