Raven Run Handicapping:
Where Speed Meets Strategy
By: John Caro, ThoroFan Handicapper
Keeneland is wrapping things up as we move to the Breeders’ Cup on the left coast. This is quite a race, and at 7 Furlongs it will be fast.
The competition is stiff with some fireball speedsters and some great closers, too.
It’s not always about their record of winning or losing, but who did they run with that can set them apart from the contenders. There are 12 runners and 3 AEs. Lots of choices.
We are looking for value in our plays here for this race. Temperatures should be dropping during the day, and if the 20% chance of rain comes into play, it may affect the outcomes.
#1 Delightful Claire – Bauer/Rosario - She is one for four, has gone the distance twice, and her first try at Saratoga won by 9+ while tracking the pace against 9 others in a 100k maiden, and Rosario was up. Her last out, she tried to stay on the lead in the Dogwood, GIII, and was beaten in the stretch by #9 Ragtime by 2 34 lengths and a half length by #3 Strong State. She is a high cruiser who can push 44 seconds at the half when tracking. She may have lost focus in her last out. ITM and will likely be forward to attend the pace.
#2 Vixen – Casse/Gaffalione - Nine lifetime starts all on the lawn, going longer and only out of the money once in the BC Juvenile Filly Turf, but has one Grade III win, a neck loss in a Grade I, two placings against Nitrogen (tough company) in Grade II company. She’s a very good filly, and oh BTW, has five great workouts at Churchill after her July layoff. This is the kind of longshot one could play with some confidence. Goes longer, takes a rest, has excellent workouts, is 20-1 ML, likes it mid pack and has a 25 mud index. If it’s wet look out for her.
#3 Strong State – Stall/Graham - As noted above, she closed from some 8 lengths back to finish second to Ragtime in the Dogwood ahead of Delightful Claire at 28-1. She seems to stay in the back of the pack in her races and then make a move half the distance to the finish but with gusto. Closed last time out in 36 seconds but missed to Ragtime who got the jump earlier. This will be her third try against Graded company. Hard to know what instructions Graham will get but they are putting on Blinkers and she might be closer to the pace. Downside is she didn’t do well on muddy sealed track.
#4 Vollyballprincess – Linder/Torres – Has not done well against Graded company, and her times are pretty slow given today’s company. In her favor, she has a high middle pace but seems to lack the punch to finish in front, although her last work was a bullet at 59. Best closing time was 37.6 in the Ruthless at Aqueduct in February. She is not on my Christmas list for today.
#5 Om N Joy – Ordonez/Desormeaux – (Oh what a Nut) For some reason Brisnet doesn’t like her and is listed as 13th in the power ratings. I’m sorry but since the connections took her off the turf, she’s won five consecutive races moving up in class and won her last out in the Torrey Pines Grade III at DelMar. Desormeaux has been aboard for the last four stakes races, winning by good margins. She has won at the distance and going longer. Desormeaux has had her mid-pack and makes a steady move to finish with closing pace of up to 106. She had a three week rest after winning her last and put in three nice maintenance works since late September. Bonus, she has a mud index of 29. This is another one of those 15-1 longshots that just seems to fit. Think the connections have made a good choice to enter. With Desormeaux up I’ll be looking for an ITM finish.
#6 Reputation - Delgado/Machado – She ran well in two of her races at the distance and then stumbled out of the gate in the Grade III Princess Ramsey at Gulfstream finishing third. Machado was up winning at Ellis Park going the distance in great time and a 37 second time from the second call. Finished in 36 in her best race going the distance. Has not faced this class of company, has run in smaller fields and has an average mud index. Nice work a week ahead and Luan has made some great moves against better horses. Bottom of the exotics.
#7 Maida – Russell/Russell – Top Maryland trainer and husband Sheldon is eighth leading jockey in the country as of January 2025. Maybe they are just here for a weekend away with the kids? No, Maida has won 3 of her last four starts by a total of 21+ lengths lifetime with a 99 Bris speed going 6 Furlongs against lesser company. Don’t be fooled as this is a front running pace horse who will likely lead the field. Will she be caught? Not proven in class or at the distance but she will have a say so in the outcome with her high cruising speed as a leader. ITM at 10-1...maybe higher.
#8 Usha – Baffert/Ortiz, I. Jr. – Great trainer – jockey hook up for a horse who has two wins under Baffert’s tutelage. No Graded stakes races but visually impressive grabbing the lead in the back stretch riding the rail to win by 5 lengths going 6.5 Furlongs at Del Mar on September5th. Del Mar is typically a speed favoring track and I don’t know if she ran with Lasix or not. Keeneland has a little different dirt that plays tougher, I think. Gives me some concern. In her favor is her strong work at 6 Furlongs prior to her last race and an equally strong 6 before this one with a 5 Furlong work to round her out which is a Baffert signature for these type races. A top contender but will face some here that can be roused to match her early speed.
#9 Ragtime – Mott/Alvarado - She is a 7 furlong specialist with four under her and three wins with her only loss by a neck in The Test in August at Saratoga. Junior has been aboard for all of her races. Winning the Dogwood when was further back then her typical run but managed to beat some nice horses. Nice to know she can sit off a fast pace and make a move to win or be very close. Her mud index is average but she’s out of a Storm Cat mare from Union Rags so I don’t see a problem with that. The outside post should not be an issue either given her pace practice. My top pick.
Now we get to the two girls who ran in the Kentucky Oaks and have not been seen since. Scratch through their last race at the Oaks on a very bad track day for both below.
#10 Simply Joking – McCarthy/Dettori - Up until the Oaks a fine animal who won the Silver Bullet Day at Fairgrounds on a sloppy sealed track. Came second to the filly below in the Fantasy in Oaklawn. So we know this gal can go a distance and has won going 6 furlongs, once. She has had some remarkably fast works at Santa Anita, really fast. And that’s good cause she is facing an outside post, traveling and others who like to roar. Is able to get 96 Bris speed in the slop even with an average mud index. Breeding says she is a player here. ITM
11 Quietside – Ortiz/Ortiz, JL – Her Oaks race was half as bad as the one above. Discount that one. The seven races before that where ITM with 3 wins and 3 second place finishes. JL has been aboard for two of her wins going longer. Both of those she was placed in the catbird seat tracking, once from the 12 post with 13 runners. I think she and JL can work out a trip here as well. She has an average mud index but has gone on a sloppy sealed track her second time out. Like her as an ITM runner who may surprise. 2nd pick
#12 Vodka With A Twist - D’Amato/Saez – Love the name but have lost money with her in the past, recently and have no faith that she can turn it around since her 4th place finish here going 6 Furlongs. She’s had three tries at 7 and been second in all three and catches and outside post. Her last win was in June 2024 in the mud at Churchill in the Debutant. Nope can’t see her making any noise for this event.
On to the Also Eligibles 😉
#13 Kappa Kappa – Reid/Sanchez - She’s had three nice races, winning two against lesser company. Like to blast off to the front and in doing so does well but her speed figures are slow compared to present company. Awfully tough to overcome class, speed and run from the outside posts at Keeneland. Toss
#14 Taliesin – Solis/Pennington - She is three for three at the distance against mid level company mostly at PARX. Pennington has been up for her last 7 races and won four with a high speed of 98 in shorter fields from the front when winning. She’s never been further away from the rail than post 7. Nice claiming filly from Vekoma out of an Into Mischief mare. Not one I would expect to show up.
#15 Tetiaroa – Bauer/Saez - Good news is she shot a bullet work on the 3rd of the month and breezed again on the 11th. Another point in her favour is her maiden race in the wet at Churchill going 90 with a good finishing time winning by 6 with 12 others. Her last two race were awful and all due respect to the connections this would be an amazing achievement coming from an outside post where she’s never been to be ITM. Not for me.
Boy, that was a lot to digest.
Handigambling... I’m going to simplify my wagers. The weather and the post parade will tell me who is looking good. Pick a Menu item below. My best longshots wager is with the 2,5 & 7
$3 Exacta 9,10,11 with 1,2,3,5,6,7 $36
$10 Win on 2,5,7 $30
$2 Exacta Box 2,5,7 $12
If you must play a Trifecta $.50 9 with 1,2,3,5,6,7 with 1,2,3,5,6,7,10,11 $21
Good luck!
No comments:
Post a Comment