Final Round at Keeneland: Who Wins the Fayette Fight?
Laurie Ross, Pedigree Power
Keeneland wraps up the 2025 fall meet on Saturday with a pair of Grade 3 events: the Byran Station for turf milers, and the 1 1/8 mile Fayette over the main oval.
The $350,000 Fayette attracted a herd of 11 3-year-olds and older, led by last year’s hero Hit Show, who later captured the 2025 Dubai World Cup (G1). A pair of 3-year-olds face their elders for the first time. Preakness and Haskell Stakes runner-up Gosger and Bracket Buster enters off a 3 1/4 length victory in the Oklahoma Derby (G3) after a second-place finish in the Travers (G1).
The Fayette is featured as race 9 of 10 with a 5:16 PM post time over a fast track. Let’s review the field.
Let’s dive into the field, post by post, and size up their chances.
2. Honor Marie (20-1) The Honor Code colt flashed Grade 2 black type as a juvenile, but his sophomore season’s been a rollercoaster. He rallied for third behind Dragoon Guard at Churchill Whit Beckmen, stretching him back to 1 1/8 miles. He’s a closer who needs a hot pace and no traffic to fire his best shot. At 20-1, he’s a longshot for the superfecta if the leaders fade, but I’m passing.
3. Bracket Buster (3-1) Vekoma’s 3-year-old son romped in the Oklahoma Derby with a 102 Brisnet figure after a gritty second in the Travers. He broke his maiden here and ran second to Gosger in the Lexington, so Keeneland’s his playground. The Vicki Oliver trainee could set or press the pace. Contender.
4. Dilger (12-1) has front-running speed, but hasn’t carried it beyond six furlongs. He was nailed on the wire in the Parx Dirt Mile in his last start, and with other speed types in the race, Saffie Joseph, Jr. picked a tough spot for a two-turn debut. Pass.
5. Moonlight (8-1) wired an optional claiming field by 1 1/4 lengths in his last start, earning a 98 Brisnet figure. The Chris Block trainee is untested in graded stakes, and the last time he tried 1 1/8 miles was at this track, where he gained ground to earn third place against allowance class runners. His late-pace figures are excellent, and if he gets a quick early pace, he’ll be rolling late. Exotics.
6. Rattle N Roll (12-1) has hit the board in half of his starts at 1 1/8 miles, and won the Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity (G1) and 1 3/16 mile Ben Ali (G3) here. In his first start since returning from Dubai in April, the Ken McPeek trainee broke slow in the Lukas Classic (G2) and never threatened, finishing sixth. He could improve in his second start off the layoff and will be rolling late. Exotics.
7. Best Actor (30-1) hammed it up in the winners’ circle in August in an optional claimer in Indiana. Before that, he hadn’t seen a camera since 2023. Although he has tactical speed, the 6-year-old has inconsistent form and steps up in distance and class. Pass.
8. Prince of Power (30-1) This Runhappy gelding has early zip, but staying power is his issue. He dueled wide and faded to fifth in the Lukas Classic, and his best finish in five starts was third in a maiden special way back in 2023. Pass.
9. Dragoon Guard (7-2) has hit the board in all nine starts, including a four-race win streak last year, including a pair of Grade 3 victories, so he fits with this group. The Brad Cox trainee is making his third start off a layoff and crushed a Churchill allowance by 4 1/4 lengths with a 95 Brisnet figure. Cox has won two of the last three editions of the Fayette, and last year, Florent Geroux was aboard. Dragoon Guard will be part of the pace scene and will only win if he has a clear lead in the stretch, but he must be considered a contender.
10. Gosger (9-2) Nyquist’s sophomore star is back at his happy place, where he wired the Lexington before finishing a half-length off Journalism in the Preakness and Haskell. Draw a line through Gosger’s troubled sixth place in the Pennsylvania Derby, where he stumbled at the start and was wide around both turns. If he gets a clean run, he’s a major player with a wicked late kick. Contender.
11. Hit Show (6-1) The defending champ brings serious credentials, from Dubai World Cup glory to a gritty fourth in the Lukas Classic, after breaking slow and going six-wide around the turn. The Brad Cox trainee can close or settle just off the pace. If he wins, he’ll be the first back-to-back winner in Fayette history. Exotics.
Analysis:
Previous Starts: Since switching back to dirt in 2014, just one of three Fayette Stakes winners was successful in their previous start, both in the Lukas Classic. Five of the last 11 winners lost ground in their prior start.
Run Style: Pace pressers hold the slight edge, with five wins from 11 starts. Pacesetters and closers split the difference.
Favorites: Seven favorites have won since the switch from Poly, including last year, and two placed second. The rest were off the board, leading to some decent payouts.
Post Position: Post isn’t a factor. Oddly, the last two winners were both closers and broke from post six. Two have won from the rail, with one second and another third.
Pace: We should see a solid pace, with Bracket Buster and his next door neighbor, Dilger, plus Dragoon Guard will likely be in the mix, and Prince of Power could join.
Gosger has tactical speed, as does Hit Show.
Bracket Buster’s Brisnet ratings have risen in all three starts, topping out at 102. He can carry his speed, and if he gets a clear lead in the stretch, he’ll be tough to catch. He rarely wins if looked in the eye.
Brad Cox has won three times since 2018, twice with Florent Geroux.
I’m going with Gosger, on top. Bracket Buster and Dragoon Guard can carry their speed, but the stretch drive must set up perfectly for them. Hit Show tends to break slowly, but he’ll kick it into gear around the turn.
10. Gosger (9-2)
9. Dragoon Guard (7-2)
11. Hit Show (6-1)
3. Bracket Buster (3-1)
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