International Flair in QE II Challenge Cup
By: Stuart Marc deVoe
The highlight on the second Saturday of the Keeneland fall meet is the $800,000 Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup (G1), a 1 1/8-mile turf test for three-year-old fillies. All nine are stakes winners, and the international field includes horses that have won races in four countries across North America and Europe at 13 racetracks.
The centerpiece of Keeneland’s second Saturday is the $800,000 Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup (G1), a 1 1/8-mile turf showdown for three-year-old fillies. All nine entrants are stakes winners, and the international lineup features runners who’ve captured victories across four countries and 13 racetracks in North America and Europe. The QE II goes as Race 9 of 10, with post time set for 5:16 p.m. EDT. The turf should be firm.
The QEII at Keeneland is by invitation only. All the invitees have something on their dance card that warrants a chance to add this prestigious G1 as icing on the cake of an already good season. That means all the fillies belong in one respect or another. While not a 2025 Breeders' Cup Challenge event, the Q.E. II may contain a few fillies who may point to the Filly & Mare Turf on November 1 at Del Mar.
When analyzing a race for 3-year-old fillies in the fall, I like to look to see who is still developing and may have a forward move to produce. I measure that against those who may be more accomplished but perhaps have already run their best.
Let’s look at the field:
1. Lush Lips (5/1) Hasn’t been out of the exacta in 5 tries this year. She won a listed stake two back in a good-looking effort and followed it up with a G1 placing in the Del Mar Oaks in her last. She seems to always try, but maybe a cut below the best in her division. She will have to improve to win.
2. Laurelin (Ire) (5/2) Graham Motion has an undefeated filly on his hands here. He has been somewhat conservative with her campaign, stepping her up in class bit by bit and only dipping into G1 company in her last. She handled that field rather easily, beating one of today’s foes in Opulent Restraint. She certainly seems progressive as her speed figures improve with every start.
3. Simmering (10/1) The lone European invader looked to be any kind when she was a 2-year-old running competitively in France and Ireland. However, her form hasn’t really translated to her 3-year-old year, at least not against top-level competition. I do find it interesting that her connections entered her in last week’s G1 First Lady against older, but chose this seemingly “easier” spot against her own age group today. Another that looks like she must improve to be in the number.
4. Daisy Flyer (20/1) This late-running sort took down the G3 Lake George at Saratoga in July while closing into a fast pace. In her subsequent start at Kentucky Downs, she was cold stopped while making a rail run against a few of these. Perhaps she didn’t get to prove her Spa run wasn’t a fluke. There are worse 20/1 m/l animals out there. She needs pace to close into, and it doesn’t project that she gets it today.
5. Opulent Restraint (IRE) (4/1) One always has to be wary of a Chad Brown filly on the turf. She looks like she’s lone speed here, although she can rate if needed. Whether rating or loose on the lead, she loses ground every time in the stretch. That isn’t “Chad like”. His horses, or at least his really good horses ALWAYS finish. As they say on Shark Tank, “for those reasons, I’m out.”
6. Candy Quest (12/1) Seven starts in 2025 with 5 ITM finishes. She has two second place finishes against two of today’s entrants sandwiched around a smart win north of the border in Woodbine’s Ontario Colleen G3. Laurelin beat her 1 1/4 lengths in the Penn Oaks, and Fionn beat her a half length at Kentucky Downs. They’re the two favorites, and she is 12/1 on the morning line.
7. Destino d’Oro (8-1) “The other Brad Cox entrant” (Fionn) was favored in that race at Kentucky Downs, The Dueling Grounds Oaks. Fionn won, Candy Quest was 2nd, and Daisy Flyer got stopped and ran no good. Destino ran no good either. Was it the track? She was favored off two sparkling efforts where she swooped a field at Churchill and then was up on a sharp pace at Ellis, and then ran away from a decent field. If you throw out her Kentucky Downs race, why not? She wouldn’t be the first horse to dislike that track, and if I draw a line through that effort, she is another on a progressive speed figure pattern, and she is 8/1 on the morning line.
8. Will Then (20/1) She has mostly had a diet of west coast racing where she’s been there or thereabouts. I’d like to own her just off that. But that form hasn’t translated too well coming back east lately. I respect her but don’t want to bet on her.
9. Fionn (3/1) Talk about an animal I’d like to own. Here she is! This filly has done nothing but show up. She’s whooped them at Fair Grounds, Churchill, Saratoga and Kentucky Downs this year. She’s 2 for 2 at the distance and has won a boat load of $$. No question she is the one to beat today. On the downside, she has danced a lot this year. And her lone defeat was on today’s oval. Beat her to win.
SUMMARY
The two favorites have nothing more to prove this year. Both Laurelin and Fionn have impressive resumes and are deserving of the invite and the morning line assigned. It wouldn’t surprise me at all if they battled to the wire. But in the end, this is a gambling game and not a popularity contest.
Both Destino d’Oro and Candy Quest offer value. Both have progressive form and credentials to win a race like this.
I’m against Opulent Restraint. If Lush Lips or Will Then perform well out of California races, so be it, and I will lose my wagers.
Daisy Flyer needs a set up I don’t think she will get, and Simmering will have to wake up a bit in a new environment (not out of the question).
THE BET: (based on $100 wagered)
$20 win on the longer odds of Candy Quest or Destino d’Oro
$20 Exacta box Destino d’Oro/Candy Quest
$10 Exacta Destino d’Oro, Candy Quest/Laurelin, Fionn
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