Wide Open Red Smith Stakes with a Front-Page Ending
By: Michael Amo, ThoroFan
The Red Smith Stakes is named after an iconic sports journalist who loved horse racing and wrote about it marvelously. After graduating from Notre Dame, Smith began his writing career. His quote, "Writing is easy, just open a vein and bleed," resonates even today.
The Grade 2 stakes is a turf journey where the ten entries will travel one and three-eighth miles from gate to finish. Two were bred in Great Britain, only one of which competed there. Soldier Rising (GB) is a 3-year-old facing older horses, and he is trained by Clement and ridden by Jose Ortiz.
The weather is forecast to be good. Here is the field:
1. Tide of the Sea (English Channel) is entered at the right level. Saez returns. He needs to repeat the effort he gave in February at this level and distance. Post position in the large field may be problematic.
2. Value Engineering (Lemon Drop Kid) gets a new jockey who rides well for Brown. Stepping up into the graded stakes company. No pre-race workouts. Likely asking too much.
3. Soldier Rising (GB) (Frankel-GB) is the only 3-year-old in the race. Gets weight from older horses. Has shown he can handle the distance and the turf. Will be closing. Is dangerous.
4. Serve the King (GB) (Kingman-GB) has shown he can run at this level with his last a witness to that. Keeping I. Ortiz is a powerful signal. A serious contender with short odds. Questionable play.
5. Shamrocket (Tonalist) is one of two entries for trainer Pletcher. Retains jockey Castellano. Beyers could be stronger. Should be in the race early. May surprise.
6. Corelli (Point of Entry) working nicely since last race and picks up an aggressive new jockey, Franco. Should be coming at the end if the pace is solid. Could be the exotics.
7. Channel Cat (English Channel) was hoping to get in the Breeders Cup but didn't. Trainer adds blinkers to keep him focused. Appears to be the only early speed if he can have his mind on the race when the gate opens. Keeps Hall of Fame rider Velazquez. Working nicely. All metrics point to a good race. But there are risks.
8. Sanctuary City (Temple City) is a New York bred that seems to perform better in restricted stakes. Likes Aqueduct Racetrack with 2 wins and 2 placings. Distance may cause him difficulty as well as the jump-up in class. Perhaps another day.
9. No Word (Silent Name) is a Japanese bred with a Sunday Silence bloodline. If he performs like he did in the 2020 Belmont Derby (GI), he will be tough. Pletcher puts turf jockey Lezcano on him for the first time. Distance will be a challenge, but he could overcome it.
10.Price Talk (Kitten's Joy) working nicely for this inauguration to graded company. He will have trouble competing with these. Likes Aqueduct. Will be trying late. Not likely to make an impression.
Analysis
Only Channel Cat shows a propensity to run on the front end, which should allow him to dictate the pace. He has been working well and retains the services of jockey Johnny Velazquez. His two- months-plus layoff may be a problem, yet distance and class will not. Channel Cat's past performances suggest he can handle a challenge early and still prevail. But his last three races suggest his form may be deteriorating. His trainer adds blinkers to see if Channel Cat can return to previous form. Difficult win play.
The remainder of the field is evenly split between closers and horses with tactical speed. The stretch run should be exciting.
Here is how the race should finish:
1. #5 Shamrocket
2. #7 Channel Cat
3. #9 No Word
4. #6 Corelli
Handigamble
$100 bankroll.
$2 Trifecta Box: (#5, #6, #7 and #9) $48
$2 Trifecta Key: #7 with (#5, #6, #7) (#5, #6, #7) $12
$40 place: #7 $40
Good Luck, but keep the day job!
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