Handicapper's Corner: 2021 Belmont Derby Invitational (G1)

 How to Play the Belmont Derby Invitational

By: Michael Amo, ThoroFan

The Belmont Derby kicks off the renewal of the NYRA Turf Trinity. The race is followed by the Saratoga Derby (August 7, 2021) and the Jockey Club Derby (Belmont Park-September 18^th). Rain in New York has been heavy for the latter part of the week, assuring the turf course will be soft. The million-dollar purse has drawn less than a stellar field of nine. That will make the race a wide-open contest. Here is the field:

 

     1.   Palazzi (Pioneer of the Nile) gets the benefit of hot rider Gaffalione. His closing style may work for him on the soft going. Working nice for this event. Distance may prove his hindrance to the Winner’s Circle.

 

    2.   Bolshoi Ballet (IRE) (Galileo) comes in for trainer O’Brien after a disappointing seventh-place finish as the betting favorite at Epsom. He wouldn’t have traveled this far if his connections didn’t think he was ready for the challenge. Will like the soft turf as he makes his closing move. This is a questionable risk to take at low odds.

 

    3.   Safe Conduct (Bodemeister) makes a big step in company but is 1-for1 at Belmont, one the turf and one taken off. Should handle the distance. Jockey Lezcano rides at 18% Belmont-win stats when riding for trainer Serpe. Could be in the money at a nice price.

 

    4.   Sainthood (Mshawish) Rosario found the right buttons to push in his last at Belmont over a sloppy track. With no turf performance, the connections may be hoping for the race to come off the turf ---an unlikely call given the size of the purse and the weather forecast.

 

    5.   Du Jour (Temple City) This Baffert family-owned horse is trying the grade one level after a solid performance at the grade two level at Churchill Downs. Jockey Prat knows the horse. His biggest obstacles are—distance, company, and trainer Mott winning first after a layoff.

 

    6.   Hard Love (Kitten’s Joy) Jockey Franco returns aboard after a stellar win in an allowance event. His powerful and quick move in the stretch may make the difference. He is two-for-two over the Belmont Turf, both with Franco up. Big threat.

 

7.   Tokyo Gold (Fr) (Kendargent-FR) is a home-bred colt that picks up Johnny Velazquez as his pilot. His last in Italy shows he likes to run long distances. Cutting back to mile and quarter may make the difference. May surprise at a big price.

 

    8.   Cellist (Big Blue Kitten) is Calumet Farm home-bred that will challenge the lead from the outside. His ThoroGraph numbers offer confidence to that approach. Although a wire-to-wire win going 10 furlongs is not easy. With his “forever jockey” Leparoux, who delivers for trainer George Arnold at 15% rate, he might get it done.

 

    9.   Hidden Enemy (Ire) (Galileo-Ire) has the right breeding for this race. Trainer Asmussen tries a new Jockey, Saez. He looks like a one-run horse that will need a tiring pace upfront to execute his best move. Not likely.

 

Betting the Race

The race presents an equally matched field, some of which with big odds. There is not one solid stand-out suggesting the exotic payouts may be large. The most important handicapping question is, “will Bolshoi Ballet perform to his odds”?

Sainthood with Rosario up should go for the lead. His only hope of winning is to lull the field and sprint to the wire. The race will be a jockey’s race, with positioning and timing dictating the outcome.

Here is how I think they will finish.

1  #6 Hard Love (5-2)

2. #7 Tokyo Gold (15-1)

3. #4 Sainthood (10-1)

4. #8 Cellist (12-1)

$10 exacta box: Hard Love, Tokyo Gold, and Sainthood --$60

$40 to Show on Tokyo Gold