Friday, June 25, 2021

Handicapper's Corner: 2021 Stephen Foster Handicap (G2)

 Back for Another Round: Stephen Foster 2021

By: Alex Susville, Off the Turf Podcast



It’s a race with a storied history of producing top handicap horses around the country. The likes of Vanlandingham, Black Tie Affair, Awesome Again, Curlin, and Blame, just to name a few that continued as an older horse to take out this prestigious event.

 

 

The Stephen Foster continues to be a flagship race on the calendar, despite its now Grade 2 status. This year’s rendition presents a strong field of Grade 2 and 3 runners set to take on one of the stars of the handicap division, Maxfield. Despite my personal disappointment to not see this feature event under the lights, the stars will shine just as bright when they turn for home.

 


The field assembled for this year’s Stephen Foster presents several talented runners. However, they will all have to show pretty steady improvement to contend with Godolphin’s flag-bearing four-year-old. Maxfield was sharp as can be when winning the Alysheba Stakes last time out and has only one blemish to his name, a 3rd place finish in a Grade 1 out in California.

 

Although the field that beat him at Santa Anita was technically a Grade 1 field, it came up a bit weak as he was just shy of odds on that day. Maxfield is yet to prove his Grade 1 form in his career and has not beaten too many of the top runners, but he doesn’t face many new challengers today. Partnering again with jockey Jose Ortiz will be a major plus, a combination that has produced a perfect 4 for 4 record, including that convincing win in the Alysheba.

 

The closest rival to Maxfield in the Alysheba is back for another go, in the form of William Morey’s Visitant. After finding an affinity for the synthetic at Turfway earlier this year, Umberto Rispoli jumped on board and changed the tactics greatly in the Alysheba, putting Visitant right on the lead early. He was valiant in defeat but was no match in the stretch. James Graham will be in the saddle for the first time, and to be competitive in this spot may need someone else to set the pace for him.

 

That speed could be found in the hands of Ten Strike Racing’s Warrior’s Charge, an extremely consistent horse throughout his career who has lost that form a bit in 2021. After being completely thrown off his game in the Steve Sexton Mile, Warrior’s Charge will look to get back to the front, and although there are some runners who have shown speed in the past, I don’t envision too many trying to push the pace with Maxfield waiting in behind. This could be a prime opportunity for Warrior’s Charge to be the controlling pace and turn his form around. Will he be at the necessary ability to beat Maxfield in this spot? It would take a pace scenario that works heavily in his favor. However, I don’t think it's that far-fetched that it could happen.

 

My Bets:

$10 Tri - 8 / 6,9 / 1,2,6,9 = $60

 

$10 Ex Box - 6 / 8,9 = $40

 

Total: $100

 

Final Thoughts:

This is Maxfield’s race to win. If he shows up like he has in just about every start of his career, he should be too tough to beat in this spot.

 

Underneath, I see Warrior’s Charge as the one horse who could take him down with a good trip up front. Obviously, he will need a big turnaround in form to do this, but there are enough excuses in his last few starts to suggest he is still capable of a major effort.

 

Visitant is another one capable of a good effort, but not an effort I see being good enough to win.

 

Chess Chief has been very consistent this season and is worth an underneath look, as well as the improving Maker trainee, Empty Tomb.

 

The race for minor spoils could be a competitive one, but it shouldn’t be much competition for who claims the top spot.


No comments:

Post a Comment