Handicapper's Corner: 2019 Cigar Mile (G1)

Putting a Spin on the Cigar Mile

By: John DaSilva, PARX Oddsmaker

To say this is an unusual year for horse racing is an understatement. Sometimes you never know what can develop. If I looked into my crystal ball on January 4^th and told you the favorite for the Grade 1 Cigar Mile just broke his maiden for $16,000 and the second choice finished third as the favorite at Aqueduct on this date in a maiden special weight in his fourth career start, you would say my crystal ball needs a major adjustment. Well, this is the case as Maximum Security and Spun to Run head a field of eleven in the Cigar Mile.

Maximum Security is the horse that has polarized horse racing. The story of a horse breaking his maiden in career debut for $16,000 in December, to winning the Grade 1 Florida Derby in his fourth career start is stuff movies are made of. But that wasn’t enough. Despite being undefeated with a great story behind him, he was sent off the 9-2 second choice in the Kentucky Derby. The horse finished first in the Kentucky Derby, but after a jockey’s claim of foul, Maximum Security was disqualified from first and placed seventeenth. 

Owners Gary and Mary West have been appealing the decision with no luck so far. But there is more. After finishing second in the Pegasus Stakes at Monmouth, Maximum Security ran and won the hours delayed Grade 1 Haskell in unbearable hot conditions. He was supposed to run in the Grade 1 PA Derby but he scratched due to a colon issue that almost killed him. He recovered and came back in the Grade 3 Bold Ruler and won that. 

Despite all the craziness and bad luck, Maximum Security is still the favorite to win the Eclipse Award for top three-year-old. A victory in the Grade 1 Cigar would solidify the championship for Maximum Security. 

But with the year he had, can we expect things to be easy and fall into place for him? Of course not.

Spun to Run is another horse that not only has a story, but he could put himself into the conversation for top three-year-old with a victory in the Cigar. The Juan Carlos Guerrero trainee took five races before breaking his maiden at Parx in his route and two-turn debut on January 19^th. After an allowance victory in March, he was pointing to race in stakes company but was discovered to have an entrapped epiglottis so he had surgery. He was expected to returns in stakes for his first race back, which turned out to be the weather-delayed Haskell. He ran third in that race and then came back in the Grade 3 Smarty Jones at Parx on Labor Day. He was game in the stretch and outlasted Gray Magician to win the Smarty Jones. He then went into the PA Derby and jockey Paco Lopez went against Guerrero’s instructions, not allowing Spun to Run to run without restraint and the horse ended up fifth.

Spun to Run was supposed to get a break after that race but Guerrero saw something that convinced him to run in the Mike Ballezzi Appreciation Mile. He also switched jockeys, from Paco Lopez to Parx’s second leading rider Sanchez. Riding to instructions, Sanchez allowed Spun to Run to run freely and he drew off to win by 6 ¾ lengths, running a Beyer number of 110. That fig was at that time the third highest run by any three year old this year and the highest run by any horse at a mile, which includes Mitole’s smashing victory in the Grade 1 Met Mile. 

After that win, Guerrero and owner Robert Donaldson had their eyes on the Breeders Cup Dirt Mile. But there was a dilemma, do they stick with Sanchez or switch to a more experienced Grade 1 jock. Irad Ortiz Jr. was tapped to ride Spun to Run, if, Firenze Fire ran in the Breeders Cup Sprint. That did happen but Spun to Run was still being ignored by many as Kentucky Derby morning line favorite Omaha Beach was also pointing to the race. But Ortiz didn’t care, he warmed up Spun to Run vigorously, broke sharply and led every step of the way to win the Breeders Cup Mile.

Spun to Run finally is getting respect and a victory here definitely puts him in the conversation for the championship. But he would need to win in dominating fashion to overtake Code of Honor for the Eclipse Award.

Many have said the three-year-olds are stronger than the older horses this year. While the top two choices on the morning line are three-year-olds, there are couple of other late-developing three-year-olds that should not be ignored here.

Chad Brown sends out an uncoupled entry of Network Effect and Looking at Bikinis. 

Network Effect came off an eleven-month layoff to win at this distance over this course in his seasonal debut last month. He has never finished worse than second in his career and has been working out very well for this spot. 

Looking at Bikinis is an intriguing runner for Chad. In his two career starts in stakes, he broke badly and lost. But then he returned at Keeneland in an allowance, broke well and came off the pace to win impressively. If he can break well and a suicidal speed duel happens, Looking at Bikinis is a longshot to be considered versus these.

Whitmore is the best of the older horses in the field. He is coming off a third-place finish in the Grade 1 Breeders Cup Sprint. The Ron Moquett trainee is a one run closer, so many would think he was stretch out to a mile. Whitmore has not run a race over seven furlongs since the Kentucky Derby, in 2016. He drew the rail here but handicappers need to worry if the addition of two bar shoes is a negative here.

Selections/Handigambling

Betting the Cigar is going to be an interesting thing to do and handicappers will need to take a stand. First, do you believe in Maximum Security? If you don’t, then will he get beat by a horse with early speed like Spun to Run or someone coming off the pace like Looking at Bikinis or Whitmore. Also, if you are anti Maximum Security, will there be a bridge jumper to take advantage of. 

The play here is $10 win Spun to Run, $10 exacta box of Spun to Run, Looking at Bikinis and Network Effect. 

If there is a bridge jumper, then $10 show on the three horses from the exacta play. If there is no bridge jumping, then a $5 exacta key box of Looking at Bikinis with Spun to Run, Network Effect and Maximum Security.