A Closer Look at the Red Smith Handicap
By: The Turk
This is not a race or a track I would generally handicap. It's not that I'm biased, I just find the variables too many and the motivations of the connections too varied regarding the starting of turf runners in a northern climate track in late November. You have the tight inner track, the weather, the horses who are building towards next year, the horses who are looking for one last kick at the can, the grizzled vets who are on their way to amassing 50 starts in their careers. You get it all post Breeders' Cup, late season racing.
All that said, what these types of races are good for to me is isolation: Almost all the runners are outside of the hype and BS marketing that can skew a horse players opinion of a race, and quite frankly very few of them I have played this year. It allows me in the isolation of just my red gel pen annotated DRF Formulator PPs (an unpaid endorsement) to study the data and bet purely on what I see on paper and a bit of video.
Let's get after it!
The NYRA website is one of the more friendly horse player track sites in my opinion. You'll find scratches and changes and track condition here. The weather Friday/Saturday is for rains to end around 4 PM Friday and be pretty dry and windy after that. The inner turf track is listed as Good right now, I can't imagine it getting much better or worse but I'll take note of track conditions at end of today. This is an inner turf race, you'll find a press release here describing the new inner turf course which was unveiled in late 2018 replacing the "all weather" inner track. I have never played it, but take into account the turns are tight and the field is big. The race does not start in the chute.
I'd argue the finish line is off a bit but you get the idea.
Sadler's Joy on pure class, current form, solid connections. If I bet the race I'll most likely single him but I really need to get a feel from the tote board what the value proposition is on an exacta or trifecta. Comes in off two solid Grade 1 efforts. His late speed, tactical speed and the race distance should allow him to close but there is a chance he made be further back at the top of the stretch than he may normally like. Again, based on tote board, I may cover him in place and show but a lot of that depends on the price I get for the four horse group I have in yellow.
I'll work backwards. Red Knight is intriguing but may come to odds with a shorter price than morning line. I love the Alvarado/Mott 25% strike rate at AQA with 72 starts. Cutting back off a win. Ran last year's edition of race (5th).
Roger Attfield's Tiz a Slam is training exceptionally well at Woodbine and ships in for this. Late speed, cutback distance. I don't care for gate position so his trip will have so much to do with his outcome.
I really like Nakamura. Training well for Conditioner Motion, this 4 YO son of Motion's most famous trainee, Animal Kingdom (although Turk's favorite was Shared Account, daughter of another Turk Favorite Pleasantly Perfect- I think I digress) I like the late speed. 5 of 5 In the money in 2019 (one bump from 4th from DQ), 10 of 12 in the money over grass.
A million dollar purchase, Marzo has earned $263,000 in 16 lifetime races, the gelding goes for Trainer Michael Maker after bouncing through alot of barns. 7 of 9 in the money in 2019, 7 of 8 in the money over turf, alot of potential in the right hands and patience level.
Glorious Empire is of course dangerous. 8 YO deserves to wind down soon and this may be the swan song. 6-1 morning line seems generous, I don't see him in the top four.
Red Right Hand is interesting. 6 of 7 in the money in 2019, early tactical speed, I question if the gelded son of Looking at Lucky is good enough, fast enough, to step forward and beat the top of my chart. I don't think so, yet.
Another that is very interesting to me at the start of 2020 will be 4 YO Petit Fils (Fr) trained by Christophe Clement. Clement is 9% first time Lasix, 10% First Time Trainer, 4% first time North America. This talented gelding I will have my eye on next few starts.
This is purely a tote board play for me. I feel pretty strongly that this is Sadler's Joy race to lose. I will need to believe the tote board would reward me for his misfortune. I'd love to see him get bet down to 6-5 or better and then I would come in with a box 1-3-4-8, a $2 Exacta for $24.
I think that's my base handicap and bet.
Have fun with it friends, Turk Out!
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