Baffert vs. O'Neill in Bob Hope Stakes
By: Laurie Ross, ThoroCap
The Bob Hope Stakes, formerly known as the Hollywood Prevue
Stakes has been contested since 1981. The Grade 3 contest landed at Del Mar
with a new name in 2014.
Let's take a look at the field.
The Stars of the Show
Bob Baffert has captured three of the last four editions of
the Bob Hope. This year he sends out two of the six entrants, Thousand Words
and High Velocity.
The $1 million Keeneland Sales yearling Thousand Words
(Pioneerof the Nile - Pomeroys Pistol, by Pomeroy) won his 6 1/2 furlong debut at
Santa Anita as expected. After settling three-wide in fourth position off the
pace, Flavien Prat urged the colt to pick it up around the turn. The pair
gradually wore down the pacesetter Thunder Code to win by a half-length.
Baffert’s second charge High Velocity (Quality Road -
Ketel Twist, by Dixie Union) brought $350,000
at the Keeneland Yearling Sale. And as expected, he also captured his debut, a
5 1/2 furlong maiden race at Santa Anita. High Velocity chased the early pacesetter,
caught him under urging and won going away by two lengths, galloping out much
the best. High Velocity has four post-race 5-furlong breezes all increasingly
faster. His pre-race work was a quick 1:00.40 gate breeze in company with Noble
Order (unraced Union Rags 2YO). High Velocity rocketed out of the gate and was
much the best while breezing under a loose rein.
Doug O'Neill also sends out two charges, Strongconstitution
and Howbeit.
After winning his turf sprint debut convincingly at Del Mar,
Strongconstitution (Constitution - Earlybird Road, by Cherokee Run) took
on California-breds in the 6 1/2 furlong Sunny Slope Stakes. He didn’t have the
best start, stumbling slightly, yet moved up the rail to sit behind the pacesetter,
Fore Left, who won the Tremont at Belmont and placed in the Best Pal (G3). Strongconstitution
hugged the rail around the turn and challenged his stablemate at the 1/8 pole.
As the pair hooked up, Mario Gutierrez on Fore Left kept Strongconstitution and
Martin Garcia pinned on the rail with little room. Strongconstitution was intimidated
by the more experienced stakes winner, finishing second by a narrow head, but
galloped out in front. Strongconstitution
returned with two sharp breezes, including a pre-race 4F :47.80 (1/12) at Del
Mar. Note that he and stablemate Howbeit are the only two contenders with a
recent work over the track.
Also Featuring
Howbeit (Secret Circle - Emerlaude, by El Corredor)
figured things out in his fourth start, getting up to win a 5 1/2 furlong
maiden race at Los Alamitos by three lengths. After that victory, he transferred
to O'Neill’s barn and prevailed by 1 1/4 lengths in an optional claimer at
Santa Anita. Howbeit has experience at Del Mar but his works aren’t as strong
as his stablemates.
Last out maiden winner Rager (Into Mischief -
Distorted Champ, by Distorted Humor) won his debut sprinting on turf and the Andrew
Lerner hopes to transfer that form to dirt. Rager’s debut was odd. He broke
well and was initially tucked in behind the leaders, but was checked for no
apparent reason, and lost about 4 lengths. Rager cut the corner and was hesitant
between horses before Garcia switched to the right-handed whip. Rager mentally
moved forward, and his body followed, winning by 3/4 length. Rager returned
with two slow breezes.
After having his tail handed to him by Storm the Court and
American Theorem, Zimba Warrior (Khozan
- Slick and True, by Yes It's True) found easier company at Fresno, winning in
maiden company by 2 1/2 lengths. He shipped back to finish a distant third in
the Sunny Slope.
Selections
The Bob Hope is an intriguing contest, despite being the
typical six-horse field we’ve come to expect. There is usually one or two
speed-happy front runners in most 2-year-old races, yet none of today’s entrants
have shown that proclivity.
High Velocity is the only one with a recent gate
work. He blasted out of the gate and kept going against an inferior foe, doing
it on his own.
Despite the deep, tiring speed-favoring track, Thousand
Words was able to wear down the pacesetter in his last.
Strongconstitution wired the field in his debut but
returned to rate in the Sunny Slope, probably because he bobbled a bit at the start.
He showed strong determination while being pinned on the rail, and has more experience
than the two Baffert trainees. He’s also the only one in the race with a last out
bullet work over the track.
Rager may turn out to be a nice miler over various
surfaces; however, he’s still figuring things out. Taking on more experienced
foes over a new surface may be more than he can handle. If he handles dirt
throwback in his face, perhaps he could grab a minor award.
#6 STRONGCONSTITUTION (9-5)
#3 THOUSAND WORDS (7-5)
#5 HIGH VELOCITY (5-2)
#1 RAGER (12-1)
Handigambling: Unless one of the longer priced
runners shows a new dimension, the ROI for this race will be single or low double
digits. The race is still playable. If you don’t want to throw $100 at this
race, I suggest having fun with exactas, tris and $0.10 supers using the top
four selections. Replace Rager with Howbeit and Zimba Warrior in lower exotics
for some supers.
$100 ThoroFan Virtual Dollars:
$ Exacta box: #3, #5, #6 = $24.00
$1 Super box: #3, #5, #6, #1 = $24.00
$1 Super box:#3, #5, #6, #4 = $24.00
$1 Super box: #3, #5, #6, #2 = $24.00
Total Bet: $96.00
No comments:
Post a Comment