Handicapper's Corner: Woodbine Mile (G1)

 Woodbine Mile Rivals Cruisin' for a Breeders' Cup Spot 

By: Nick Costa, Trackside with Trackman   

Get your passports ready folks, we are crossing into Canada for our ThoroFan race of the week, the 26^th running of the Grade 1 Woodbine Mile.

Contested over the world-renowned E.P. Taylor turf course, the $1 million event is part of the Breeders' Cup ‘Win and You're In' Challenge Series. Under the terms of the series, the winner is entitled to a fees-paid berth into the Breeders’ Cup Mile, to be run on November 5 at Keeneland.

A solid mix of eleven North American and International turf horses make up this year’s edition of the Mile, including the defending champ of the race, a Breeders’ Cup winner, a two-time Canadian Horse of the Year, a quartet of Irish-breds and a pair of Brazilian-breds. In addition, five Hall-of-Fame trainers representing the U.S. and Canada will saddle half of the field.

Post time for the Woodbine Mile is scheduled for 5:35pm

Locally based Town Cruise, took last year’s Woodbine Mile field wire-to-wire, giving trainer Brandon Greer, the biggest win of his career. The 7-year-old gelding has fashioned a record of 6-2-1 from 17 career starts. Daisuke Fukumoto, who has been aboard for the last seven races, including last year's victory, retains the mount on Saturday.

 

Modern Games (IRE) makes his first appearance back in North America since his memorable Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf triumph last fall. The three-year old colt is versatile and has demonstrated his class both internationally and in Europe. The 3-year-old son of Dubawi, who has record of 5-2-1 from 10 starts, won four straight races beginning last September through to this May. Trained by Charlie Appleby, who has been very successful when shipping into Woodbine, Modern Games has stepped up his performance every time he was given a challenge. The Godolphin owned runner enters the Woodbine Mile off a second-place finish in the Group 1 Sussex Stakes to the unbeaten superstar Baaeed. William Buick will make the trip to ride.

 

Two-time (2020-21) Canadian Horse of the Year, Mighty Heart, will look to get back to the winner’s circle in the Mile. Trained by Canadian Hall of Famer Josie Carroll, the 5-year-old son of Dramedy, who sports a 6-2-5 from 20 lifetime starts, has been blanked in five consecutive races since winning the G2 Autumn Stakes last November at Woodbine. The one-eyed bay will be piloted by Justin Stein.

 

There is a filly in the Mile starting gate and her name is, Wakanaka (IRE). The 4-year-old daughter of Power, who began her career racing in Italy but now resides in the barn of U.S. Hall of Fame inductee, Bill Mott, scored an impressive win back in July in the G2 Dance Smartly Stakes on the E.P. Taylor Turf Course. Her record from 13 career starts is 7-4-1. Manny Franco gets the call.

 

Bringing in a race record of 5-0-1 from 11 starts, War Bomber (IRE), conditioned by Norm McKnight, was claimed in his fourth career start for 25k in August of 2021. The 4-year-old son of War Front has won 3 of 4 turf starts at Woodbine and has also won twice on the Tapeta surface, most recently a 18-1 score in the G3 Seagram Cup last month. Sahin Civaci will be in the irons.

 

The fourth and final Irish-bred horse, Finest Sound, is still seeking his first stakes win. The resume for the 5-year-old son of Exceed, sports a three runner-up finishes in group events, including the Group 1 Jebel Hatta which kicked off his 2022 campaign. The Simon Crisford trainee has recorded a win, two seconds and a third in his past four races and his overall record is 4-5-7 from 20 lifetime races. Andrea Atzeni makes the overseas trip to ride.

 

The Brazilian-bred, Homer Screen, who goes out for Hall-of Fame trainer, Neil Drysdale, won five of his six starts in his native country before heading stateside to compete. The 6-year-old son of Adriano has a 5-1-0 from 10 lifetime races. The late-running chestnut just missed, at 28-1, in the G3 American two back at Santa Anita. Joe Bravo, who was aboard for the horse’s first two U.S. starts is back in the saddle.

 

Ivar (BRZ) is a two-time Breeders' Cup Mile participant who has won 6 races from 12 starts. The 6-year-old son of Agnes Gold arrives in Toronto off a one-length win in track-record time in the Jonathan Schuster Memorial Stakes at Horseshoe Indianapolis. The Paulo Lobo trainee finished third in the 2021 BC Mile at Del Mar and was fourth in the 2020 edition at Keeneland. Connections are hoping for a strong early pace so their runner can utilize his powerful late run. Regular rider Joe Talamo stays aboard.

 

Canadian Hall-of Fame trainer Mark Casse, who won back-to-back editions of the Mile (2016-17), will send out the duo of March to the Arch and Get Smokin. A seven-year-old son of Arch, March to the Arch, is no stranger to Woodbine or the Woodbine Mile. The bay gelding sports an overall record of 8-5-4 from 33 races.

 

March to the Arch was second in the 2020 Woodbine Mile and fourth in last year’s running. The Florida-bred has three stakes’ victories on the Woodbine grass and heads into the Mile off a fourth-place finish in the G2 King Edward Stakes last month. Patrick Husbands will ride.

 

Get Smokin arrives at the $1 million race off a fourth-place finish at Saratoga in the G1 Fourstardave. The five-year old son of Get Stormy took the lead out of the gate and led until the eighth pole before being overtaken. This will be his first start at Woodbine. Rafael Hernadez takes the mount.

 

Legendary Canadian trainer and dual Hall of Famer, Roger Attfield, sends out Shirl’s Speight. The 5-year-old son of Speightstown rode a three-race winning streak from January through April, including a nose victory in G1 Makers Mark Mile at Keeneland. He possesses a 5-0-2 record from a dozen starts, including a win over the E.P. Taylor turf course. The ride goes to Emma-Jayne Wilson.

 

The Woodbine Mile program will also feature the Grade 1 $500,000 Summer Stakes for two-year old colts, the Grade 1 $500,000 Natalma Stakes for two-year old fillies and the Grade 3 $150,000 Seaway Stakes for older fillies and mares.

 

Selections:                                                                                         

1st – #2 Ivar                                                                                            

2nd- #5 Modern Games                                                                         

3rd – #4 Finest Sound

 

Wager: $100 Mythical ThoroFan dollars

$40 win on Ivar - $20 Exacta Box Ivar/Modern Games - $10 Exacta Ivar and Modern Games over Finest Sound

Good luck and as always, Enjoy the race!!

 

 

Handicapper's Corner: Fourstardave Handicap (G1)

Girls take on the Boys in Fourstardave

By:  The Turk

 

Welcome Friends to The Turk and the Little Turk Blog, sharing handicapping and bet construction advice since 2008.  

I moved to Saratoga, Jumel Place, in April of 1986 and lived there until late November.  I did all the requisite things that a Navy Petty Officer should do,  including dating a Skiddy Kiddy, hanging out at The Metro and becoming a fixture at the race track.  What I did not get the pleasure of doing was see Fourstardave (pictured above with photo credit: Adam Coglianese) run in person, as he burst onto the scene a year later in 1987.  The Sultan of Saratoga is gone but not forgotten, but it's horses like this that catch the eyes and hearts of race fans that are needed if this sport is ever going to grow again.  I'm not talking about handle, which is nice and needed, I'm talking about culturally relevancy.

I grew up when sports like Boxing and Horse Racing were still relevant.  The generation that fought World War 2 was approaching retirement, enjoying the sports that they and their fathers grew up with, but funny things happen along the cultural road.  Gambling on Football now dwarfs everything.  Twitter and Social Media platforms offer quick takes which has replaced reading and deeper analysis.  I'm not trying to be the old guy shouting from the window for a return to the past, but sometimes the old ways are best. 

 If you are reading this blog for the first time, try reading a book like Dick Mitchell's Common Sense Betting or Brad Free's Handicapping 101: A Horse Racing Primer. Join The Thorofan and find community.   Immersing yourself in something that takes time and effort can be a rewarding experience.  If anyone reading this ever wants help learning how to handicap, place a bet, or just feel comfortable at a race track, contact me.  I'll do my best to help you and I promise I'm not a creeper! 

It's such a lost year on many levels. I was so engaged at the beginning of the year with handicapping and this blog but the quarantine and life in general just took its toll.  My only real objective now is to stay fresh, watch September and early October racing carefully, and prepare for Breeders' Cup Weekend. 

I'm all about turf racing and I prefer the cagey 5-7 year old's the best, and while I prefer a bit more of a route of grass, the inner turf, 1 mile, Grade 1 Fourstardave gives me the opportunity at a nine horse field and a lot of natural class. 

 Lets get after this.  

27 June 2020: Belmont. 1 Mile Firm Turf.  Just a Game Grade 1.  Uni (GB)

 4 July 2020: Belmont. 1 Mile Firm Turf. Poker Grade 3.  Got Stormy, Valid Point

 

 

27 June 2020: Belmont. 1 Mile Firm Turf.  Just a Game Grade 1.  Uni (GB)

20 June 2020: Churchill Downs. 1 1/16 Miles Firm Turf. Wise Dan Grade 2. Casa Creed, Emmaus (Ire)

26 July 2020: Saratoga. 1 1/16 Miles Firm Inner Turf.  The Bernard Baruch Grade 2. Halladay. 

8 August 2020: Saratoga. 5 1/2 F Firm Turf.  Troy Grade 3. Chewing Gum. 

  That is the latest on every horse in the field.  What to make of it or just noise?  We don't have a single last race winner entering the gate.  That is highly unusual, but the ebb and flow of the race season is so out of whack right now it's understandable. So takeaways:

•  Raging Bull (Fr) was out kicked in a late bid.  Capable of a 1:32 Mile.
• Casa Creed ran a 1:33.72 in Hall of Fame G2 on this course as a three year old last year.  Onbly 2 starts since for Mott's runner. Mostly slow efforts.
• Emmaus (Ire) trainer Murphy 0-10 Graded Stakes past calendar year.  Never fast but seems in decline.
• Of the two Mares, Got Stormy's form has been off in 2020.  Won this last year at 5-1. 
• Halladay is a beautiful Grey/Roan who didn't have another gear when challenged last out. Hard to believe Pletcher Graded Stakes 9% in 187 attempts over past year.  
• One of four (three too many) Chad Brown's, Uni (GB) is classy and the best horse in this field as a Mare. Brown is 29% off 31-60 day layoffs and a staggering 25% Graded Stake Winner in 271 attempts. 
• Valid Point is a Scat Daddy Grade 1 winner in 6th start.  Has had bad trips.  Arlington's turf is not apples and apples with Saratoga, but 1:35.5 as 3 YO in Grade 1 Secretariat. 
• Without Parole (GB) is still winless in North America under Brown and winless since Ascot in 2018.  Classy.  Need more. 
• Chewing Gum is Mott's second in the gate, off a quick turnaround 2 weeks ago, stretching out from 5 1/2 furlongs.  Crap Shoot.  

When a field is like this, evolving current form, overall good quality, I tend to trust my base handicap and let the tote board give me insight into the opportunity cost of the bet.  

 

I'm not sure I see value in betting this race until I see where the tote board ranks Raging Bull (Fr) the morning line favorite, how Without Parole and Uni (GB) match up on tote, and where a dark horse may emerge on a value line, such as Hallady or Got Stormy OVER Uni (GB), Without Parole (GB) and Raging Bull (Fr).  That would be the sort of $2 Exacta ($12 total) that I could get behind.  

Whatever you do, make your betting capital count and have fun with it!

Turk Out. 

Handicapper's Corner: 2020 Manhattan Stakes (G1)

Manhattan Stakes: Chad Brown vs the rest

By: The Turk

Instilled Regard wins the 2020 Fort Marcy Stakes at Belmont Park Coglianese Photos/Susie Raisher

Welcome Friends to The Turk and the Little Turk Blog, a horse race handicapping blog that has been handicapping online since 2008.

A big thank you to The Thorofan and the Handicappers Corner for allowing me to share my thoughts with you today.

So much has happened in 2020 on a global stage.  I handicapped six races in January/February 2020, as I like to watch the turf racing in the early season in Florida and California as it helps me prepare for when the big races come and I'm looking for value.  While the world, and then the United States, went into a free fall beginning in March, my world went upside down with the death of both my Father in Law on March 12 and my own Father on April 8.  I had no interest in horse racing, I was forced to continue working alone in an office all by myself, and the best therapy for me was my work.  Day in and day out, 12-14 hour days.  My work got me through my grief.  It's time for horse racing to bring me back the feelings of pleasure.

Let's get after this!

My initial reaction was just how even a race this was, even with an albeit small field.  It's a four-horse race by my fair line odds, with my top 4 consuming 80% of the win percentage while the Morning Line uses five runners on a corrected basis (the percentages divided by 100% + Takeout) to get to 80%.  I don't think weather will be an issue and expect firm turf.

Let's start with looking at some video.

Belmont Park; 6 June 2020; 1 1/8 Miles Inner Turf (Square around T for newbies on PP)  The Fort Marcy G2

Belmont Park; 4 June 2020; 1 3/8 Firm Turf (Circle around T for Main Turf);  The Tiller Stakes $80K


 Fairgrounds; 21 March 2020; 1 1/8 Miles on Turf; The Muniz Memorial Classic G2

I feel a bit rusty.  I have been handicapping for, hard to believe, 35 years this year, so rusty is relative, but I'm torn on my position on this race.  That's not a bad thing.  When you watch racing long enough you start to spot patterns, archetypes, a recurring pattern.  This movie seems very familiar.  I'm also not the type of race fan or handicapper that bemoans the quality of the field; handicap what you are given to work with and if you don't like the action, walk away.  It's that sentiment that allows me still have a roof over my head and a twenty eight year year marriage.

What to make of all this?  Instilled Regard is going to get bet hard.  Winning the Fort Marcy over this route of grass for Trainer Chad Brown who has Ortiz Jr up, does not hurt.  Brown sends three into a gate of eight, it almost doesn't seem fair or equitable.  I like Brown, I've been a fan of his for a very long time, but someone has to challenge is growing dominance on turf just to keep the dynamics of racing fair: 25% Graded Stakes winner in 241 starts, 27% Route Winner in 789 Starts, 26% Turf Winner in 666 Starts, 30% Won Last Start in 240 opportunities and 28% with the 2nd off a >45 day layoff.  Shocking numbers, and he dominates the top of the board here also saddling Rockemperor (Ire) and Devamani (Fr).  

Archetypes. Favorites for decades hovered as 30% winners from the gate.  That number is going up.  Does Instilled Regard come out of the gate, rate slightly off the flank and to the outside of  early speed Cross Over before handily passing and finishing by a length or two in front of a charging Rockemperor or Sadler's Joy? Admit it, you've seen this movie too.  Let's not be too jaded though.  Let's assume all Brown runners are allowed to compete fairly against each other, and we have no reason to believe he's dishonest (i discount his fine last year for back OT- the laws are slanted to protect workers, not employers, rightfully so, even if Brown was following standard practice on the backstretch), then is there value to be found in this race?  That's the only question a gambler has.  Yes, horse racing fans have other interests and concerns, but a gambler, the lifeblood of this sport, should have a narrow focus: Is there money to be made? Possibly, but not betting Brown horses Win Place Show.

My base handicap is in the chart.  It confuses some, but just because I handicap a winner doesn't mean I'll bet the handicap, its not sound gambling practice.  I'm leaning, tote board dependent, towards Devamani (Fr) on top, my tepid chalk.  While coming up short against Instilled Regard at 1 1/8 miles in June's Fort Marcy G2, Instilled Regard has a pretty low Tomlinson (309) for the extra furlong and has only one try at it in 17 lifetime starts.  Devamani has a field best 385 Tomlinson and his Class is off the charts, bred by Aga Khan Studs and selling for $322,000 (against only $294,000 career earnings).  The gelding may be a late bloomer, although conditioned by turf genius, Christophe Clement and Rob Atras, he is very sharp now in Brown's barn.  I'm hoping for 3-1 or better.

If you can't tell, I'm not estatic about this race from a gambling perspective.  Too much Brown, too much good Brown.  It's not top say crazy things don't happen, it's just not this gambler's business plan to hope for crazy.  I don't think it's crazy to think Sadler's Joy is starting to fade.  1 win in last 12:  Last 12 back to June 2018:  1 Win, 2 Place, 6 Show, 3 6th place finishes.  No longer a Grade 1 horse (except in fields like this), perhaps i'm wrong, and I have been before on older Champions, but I don't like the pace of this field for him.  He will get bet though, that's good.  So will Instilled Regard and Rockemperor.  That's good.  I'm going to keep my betting conservative and put Devamani on top with Dot Matrix and Cross Border to Show, a $2 bet for $4.  Plausible, not crazy, is the business plan.

It feels good to be back.  Thank you Thorofan.

Turk Out!

Handicapper's Corner: 2020 Sunshine Forever Stakes

How to Play the Sunshine Forever Stakes

By: John Caro, S. FL ThoroFan Member

The forecast is great and expect the race to be on the lawn. That being the case the #1 Just Whistle (Quiz; Who said that? Answer below) will be scratched as the MTO. 

Considering the times of our new era and lifestyles, many of these horses have been on layoffs, and I’m sure trainers have been looking for a place to run as the summer season begins. And there some good performers in this group.

I’ll run through these as I see them as contenders.

#9 Social Paranoia (3-1) – Pletcher/Zayas – He’s two for two at Gulfstream winning the Appleton G3 last out 42 days ago. They have him listed as late closer P5, but his running lines say he can be versatile, run with the crowd, track the pace and closes well. He’s my top pick.

#6 Halladay (4-1) – Pletcher/Saez – Saez took him to the front in his last out here and improved his position. This four-year-old War Front/Tapit mare mix is ideal for the race and is also two for two at Gulfstream. It was hard to put him second in my selections with his 2019 ITM record in all six races and a win to open up this year. Can we get a Pletcher Exacta?

#11 Admission Office (5-2) – Lynch/Rosario – His class alone says he’ll be a contender, and his work tab is good given his layoff. They have been running him longer in classy company, but his last win was for 80k in an allowance race at Keeneland. I don’t believe he’s at the right distance, but he has been second in three races here. Rosario has been hot as of late; maybe he can work out a trip? ITM contender.

Wild Horses….

#7 Hawkish (10-1) – Toner/Jaramillo – This half-million dollar winner has won and placed her in three races, has very good works over the turf at Palm Meadows since early March. He seems to do his best when traveling with the pack and breaks for the lead in or near the final turn. Jaramillo may be just the guy to help Toner get out of his slump. Logical given his record.

#12 War of Will (10-1) – Casse/Gaffalione – Liked him coming up as a contender to the Triple Crown last year, and he captured the Preakness. After that, it seemed to go awry. He been on a rest for 189 days and got back to work in February with a lot of bullet works over the grass at Palm Meadows, including some very hot 57s going five. When ya look at his lines, he’s a dirt horse? No. He’s a War Front with at Irish mom out of Sadler’s Wells screams TURF, and he’s been on the turf early in his life. If he can turn this around, wouldn’t it be great to watch him get older and better? Gaffalione knows what to do and may surprise. 

#4 Aquaphobia (10-1) – Maker/Ortiz, I Jr. – Since coming to Maker, he’s won one and was going there when the rider lost the whip. I think we draw a line through that race. Twelve of this seven-year-old’s fifteen races at this distance were ITM. He won and is 60% ITM here. The connections give me hope for a good effort. If he goes 12-1 or higher, I’ll play him to win as part of my bets.

Bombers….

#5 Cullum Road (20-1) – Ignacio/Bravo – Last seen finishing second and a neck ahead of Admission Office in the Grade 3 River City at Churchill, he has been steadily working into condition. He’s been over the lawn here and is one for two. His journeyman jockey will know what to do. I have to like him personally as he helped my winnings at Kentucky Downs last fall. He could go off at big odds and help any trifecta play.

#2 Sand Dancer (20-1) – Hills/Meneses – The connections worry me as their stats are not exactly stellar, but the horse is interesting. He’s raced the distance eight times with three wins and second place twice. Can’t put my finger on it, but he shows up at the right price. And Marcos has pulled off some crazy stuff this season once in a while. Have to put him under in a trifecta.

#3 El Tormenta (12-1) – Cox/Davis – I think Gail had a good plan for this guy last out putting him in the Appleton G3 here, but he pulled post 12 in a field of 12 rushed to the front as he was being pushed wide. Hard way to go at Gulfstream. He’s a Grade One winner who’s made three-quarters of a million going off at 44-1. So, who can argue with that? Not me. He is another that seems logical, and if his odds are right, he should be played as a win bomber.

The Rest…

#1 Just Whistle (8-1) will be scratched.

#8 Regally Irish (20-1) – Motion/Maragh – Like Graham Motion and turf on any contest, but the horse has not shown anything that resembles contender status for this one.

#10 Highland Sky (15-1) – Tagg/Vasquez – This animal has been going long for most of his career, and the breeding doesn’t show me he should go those distances. Having said that, he has been a winner at this distance three times and showed twice in six attempts. His latest claim to fame is a win against three others in the slop. I can’t justify him in the top three. Put him in the bottom of a Superfecta if that’s what you like.

Handigambling

Exactas

$2 Exacta Key – 9 & 6 with All  = $40

$2 Exacta Key - 9 & 6 with 2,3,5,6,9  = $20

Trifecta 

$.50 – 9,6 with 9,6,12,7,4,5,2,3,11 with 9,6,12,7,4,5  = $35

Good Luck

Just Whistle – Answer: Lauren Bacall with Bogart in To Have and Have Not 1944.

Great Scene – Great Movie at a time when America fought back against great threats. 

You could take in the movie while we are in the pandemic while we have Social Paranoia as we are on Halladay at the beaches to be a Sand Dancer ‘cause we have Aquaphobia go to battle this War of Will against El Tormenta in a Haskish manner. Take Cullum Road to the Admission Office and get your tickets to freedom from boredom.

Handicapper's Corner: 2020 Pan American Stakes (G2)

Pan American Stakes Draws Elite Field

By: Michael Amo, ThoroFan Chairman

Gulfstream Park is one of the few tracks to run in the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic. 

This weekend it will host, as planned, the Florida Derby absent of fans rooting their favorite on. The silence will be deafening. 

As long as the coronavirus is managed correctly and the environment is safe, we should have races tomorrow to enjoy.

The Kitten’s Joy Pan American Stakes (GII) is one of 10 graded stakes races on Saturday’s card of which only one is a grade I race –The Florida Derby.

The Kitten’s Joy has a prohibitive favorite, Zulu Alpha with a Morning Line odds of 3-5. He loves Gulfstream Park registering back-to-back wins with Beyer Speed Figures of 106 and 107 respectively.

As I look at my assignment, I think, should I even bother? Since we all remember huge upsets in big races, let’s proceed; here is the field.

1.       Channel Cat (English Channel) is a formidable contender with excellent workouts and an excuse for his last race. Yet in his last 12 starts, he won just once from the “I” post –wire to wire. It is not likely this strategy will work in this race. In the money, but not the winner.

2.       Bemma’s Boy (Into Mischief) is trained by Mike Maker who has three horses in the field of nine. This one and Go Poke the Bear look like pace-setters for his big one Zulu Alpha. With very little solid speed in the race, this may work.

3.       Spooky Channel (English Channel) eased last time against Zulu Alpha and works do not show confidence he will do better.

4.       Current (Curlin) is scheduled to be ridden by Castellano who just tested positive for COVID-19. Not sure if Jose will ride or Current will run. In either case not the Pletcher “A Horse”.

5.       Go Poke the Bear (Kitten’s Joy) is trying graded company for the first time. Bred nicely and showing improvement. Will need a few more before he is ready for this level.

6.       Galleon Mast (Mizzen Mast) ran second in a grade three race at Gulfstream two years ago. He has been competitive at a lower level. Not likely to be much of a factor.

7.       Prince of Arabia (Mineshaft) has tried this level and higher before with little success. Gets a jock who really knows the track. His running style may position him for piece and more if pace sets up for his quick foot in the stretch.

8.       Manicomio (Include) not much to show except his speed out of the gate. He will set the pace for as far as he can go. Expect no more.

9.       Zulu Alpha (Street Cry) he comes into this race on the Dean’s list from Beyers, Thorograph and 2020 record. This is his race to lose. His last two running styles will be compromised if the pace comes up too slow. But he might be too good in this field to make a difference.

10.     Focus Group (Kitten’s Joy) has been having trouble of late. Last made the Winner’s Circle a year ago. Gets new trainer. Leaving Chad Brown for Clement who is not great first out with new horse. He is major closer with a liking for winning off a long layoff. Will Clement get that done?

Handicapping this race shows my ability to ignore personal bias. I have supported Zulu Alpha many times over his career. Going into the race he looked like a single in a Pick-4 for me. Then the pace factor surfaced. With a slow pace up front, he will have to move up in position to be successful. PPs suggest this not in his toolbox. Then again, he may so much better than the rest that pace is a non-issue. What to do?

I think the two Maker horses and Manicomio will try to give Zulu Alpha the pace to run into. If Channel Maker tries to join them, they all may fail. The long-shot Prince of Arabia will follow the speedster hoping for an opportunity to accelerate when the leaders back-up. If Panici times it perfectly he should take over the lead inside the eighth pole bracing for the on-slot of closers. How exciting!

Results:

1.       #9 Zulu Alpha

2.       #7 Prince of Arabia

3.       # 10 Focus Group

4.       #1 Channel Maker 

Handigamble ($100)

$4 Trifecta Box: #1, # 7, #9 and #10 = $96

$2 Exacta Box:   #7 and # 9 = $ 4

Handicapper's Corner: Red Smith Handicap (G3)

A Closer Look at the Red Smith Handicap

By: The Turk 

Welcome friends to The Turk and the Little Turk blog.  I'd like to thank the good people at The Thorofan and the Handicappers Corner for inviting me to share my thoughts with you today.

This is not a race or a track I would generally handicap.  It's not that I'm biased, I just find the variables too many and the motivations of the connections too varied regarding the starting of turf runners in a northern climate track in late November.  You have the tight inner track, the weather, the horses who are building towards next year, the horses who are looking for one last kick at the can, the grizzled vets who are on their way to amassing 50 starts in their careers.  You get it all post Breeders' Cup, late season racing.

 All that said, what these types of races are good for to me is isolation:  Almost all the runners are outside of the hype and BS marketing that can skew a horse players opinion of a race, and quite frankly very few of them I have played this year.  It allows me in the isolation of just my red gel pen annotated DRF Formulator PPs (an unpaid endorsement)  to study the data and bet purely on what I see on paper and a bit of video.

Let's get after it!

The NYRA website is one of the more friendly horse player track sites in my opinion.  You'll find scratches and changes and track condition here.  The weather Friday/Saturday is for rains to end around 4 PM Friday and be pretty dry and windy after that.  The inner turf track is listed as Good right now, I can't imagine it getting much better or worse but I'll take note of track conditions at end of today.  This is an inner turf race, you'll find a press release here describing the new inner turf course which was unveiled in late 2018 replacing the "all weather" inner track.  I have never played it, but take into account the turns are tight and the field is big.  The race does not start in the chute.

 
I'd argue the finish line is off a bit but you get the idea.



 

Sadler's Joy on pure class, current form, solid connections.  If I bet the race I'll most likely single him but I really need to get a feel from the tote board what the value proposition is on an exacta or trifecta.  Comes in off two solid Grade 1 efforts.  His late speed, tactical speed and the race distance should allow him to close but there is a chance he made be further back at the top of the stretch than he may normally like.  Again, based on tote board, I may cover him in place and show but a lot of that depends on the price I get for the four horse group I have in yellow.


I'll work backwards.  Red Knight is intriguing but may come to odds with a shorter price than morning line.  I love the Alvarado/Mott 25% strike rate at AQA with 72 starts.  Cutting back off a win.  Ran last year's edition of race (5th).


Roger Attfield's Tiz a Slam is training exceptionally well at Woodbine and ships in for this.  Late speed, cutback distance.  I don't care for gate position so his trip will have so much to do with his outcome.

I really like Nakamura.   Training well for Conditioner Motion, this 4 YO son of Motion's most famous trainee, Animal Kingdom (although Turk's favorite was Shared Account, daughter of another Turk Favorite Pleasantly Perfect- I think I digress) I like the late speed.  5 of 5 In the money in 2019 (one bump from 4th from DQ), 10 of 12 in the money over grass.


A million dollar purchase, Marzo has earned $263,000 in 16 lifetime races, the gelding goes for Trainer Michael Maker after bouncing through alot of barns.  7 of 9 in the money in 2019, 7 of 8 in the money over turf, alot of potential in the right hands and patience level.  

Glorious Empire is of course dangerous.  8 YO deserves  to wind down soon and this may be the swan song.  6-1 morning line seems generous, I don't see him in the top four.  

Red Right Hand is interesting.  6 of 7 in the money in 2019, early tactical speed, I question if the gelded son of Looking at Lucky is good enough, fast enough, to step forward and beat the top of my chart.  I don't think so, yet.

Another that is very interesting to me at the start of 2020 will be 4 YO Petit Fils (Fr) trained by Christophe Clement.  Clement is 9% first time Lasix, 10% First Time Trainer, 4% first time North America.  This talented gelding I will have my eye on next few starts.

This is purely a tote board play for me.  I feel pretty strongly that this is Sadler's Joy race to lose.  I will need to believe the tote board would reward me for his misfortune.  I'd love to see him get bet down to 6-5 or better and then I would come in with a box 1-3-4-8, a $2 Exacta for $24.

 I think that's my base handicap and bet.

Have fun with it friends, Turk Out!