Handicapper's Corner: Turf Sprint Stakes (G3)

Analyzing the Runhappy Turf Sprint Stakes 

By: John Caro, S. FL ThoroFan Member

Welcome back to one of my favorite places to visit, Kentucky Downs. The only European style lawn in the U.S. Big named trainers and jockeys with some classy horses are the name of the game here. If you go sometime, and I hope you do, it’s a small venue but packed with an enthusiastic crowd. It’s country in every sense of the word. From the viewing area and the clubhouse, you really can’t appreciate the course as it appears a little undulating, but a walk down to the South end of the course just off the track gives one a greater appreciation for the down and then uphill grade of the turf. The horses must mount an attack to the bottom turn going down and then a two-tiered climb to the finish at the top of the hill. It’s challenging for the best of the horses, and jockeys must be keen in getting into position to rally up the hill to finish well.

My many trips there have pointed to the idea that horses that can close well, and I don’t mean deep closers, and have a steady speed/pace profile seem to do better than those who exhaust themselves to the front and slow their pace late. Steady numbers in the pacelines with a good speed number get my attention at Kentucky Downs.

The weather looks iffy on paper as the forecast is for 60-80% chance of thunderstorms, which can make this tough track even more challenging. This race is the last on the card and will be preceded by three graded stakes and a black type for juveniles. There are some very classy horses running here today for $500K and up in all the Grade III stakes and a Juvenile Stakes worth $500K. This is a day to play the stakes and enjoy some great races.

Get the free past performances, and look under Graham Motion for three of the races, one under Eddie Kenneally and one under Street Boss on the bottom of the page.

 

 

 

There are 12 set to run with 4 additional AE horses. The gate at the Downs only loads 12, so I expect they will fill the gate and some scratches will be had because of the weather. I will give you my top five in my order of preference and then list the AEs in another order should they come to play. As I said above, I have an outline of who I’m looking for as contenders. For the race today they are:

#9 Imprimis – Has won half his lifetime starts and took the Troy last out. Fast steady numbers and can handle a good grass track. Ortiz, I Jr. is up

#10 Richiesinthehouse – This Rivelli trainee has won 14 of 21 lifetime, has great numbers, and if given the lead, may sweep them clean. He goes very well on yielding grass. As a single, I would have to play him to win and then under in an exacta to my others. Great price.

#12 Bound for Nowhere – Might be bound for the winners circle given his record. Lightly raced this year but he’s won over this track and appears to be ready to go a little longer. Ward has been turning out some great wins off the layoff.

#11 Archidust – Another who has won half his lifetime starts and has great numbers. He looks like he can track the pace if it’s hot and finish well.

#3 Front Run the Fed – Steady pace numbers and able to sustain his pace late when it counts at this track. Who can argue with a Hall of Fame jockey up?

 

Also Eligibles:

#14 Fast Boat – Has the best numbers of the AEs and has won over this track with his jockey.

#13 Tiger Blood – Good numbers going for a third start off the layoff. He’s 20-1, and if Gaffalione is up, he knows how to get it done. Soft grass is not an issue last out.

#16 Admiral Lynch – Never tried the turf and has played at the lower levels, but is a Super Saver son and has good numbers with a jockey who, despite his late start at Saratoga, put on quite a show.

#15 Hollis – Not my idea of a good pick. If he enters, I would replace him with #6 Kanthaka or #2 Stubbins.

 

Handigambling

At of this writing and not having seen the track conditions or scratches I’m taking a short exacta box with my top five picks for a total cost of $20. With the odds as they are would pay well.

#10 WPS

$1 Exacta Box – 3 9 10 11 12 and replace with AEs as needed

#10 $10 Win $15 Place $20 Show

Here is a thought about the Pick 5 races 7-11 or a *Pick 4 races 8-11

4,6 w 1,7,8 w 4,6,10 w 10 (*7) w 9,10,11   Total cost $27

Good luck to everyone and enjoy the Dueling Grounds races. Be safe and hope we see some folks early next year.

Handicapper's Corner: 2020 Manhattan Stakes (G1)

Manhattan Stakes: Chad Brown vs the rest

By: The Turk

Instilled Regard wins the 2020 Fort Marcy Stakes at Belmont Park Coglianese Photos/Susie Raisher

Welcome Friends to The Turk and the Little Turk Blog, a horse race handicapping blog that has been handicapping online since 2008.

A big thank you to The Thorofan and the Handicappers Corner for allowing me to share my thoughts with you today.

So much has happened in 2020 on a global stage.  I handicapped six races in January/February 2020, as I like to watch the turf racing in the early season in Florida and California as it helps me prepare for when the big races come and I'm looking for value.  While the world, and then the United States, went into a free fall beginning in March, my world went upside down with the death of both my Father in Law on March 12 and my own Father on April 8.  I had no interest in horse racing, I was forced to continue working alone in an office all by myself, and the best therapy for me was my work.  Day in and day out, 12-14 hour days.  My work got me through my grief.  It's time for horse racing to bring me back the feelings of pleasure.

Let's get after this!

My initial reaction was just how even a race this was, even with an albeit small field.  It's a four-horse race by my fair line odds, with my top 4 consuming 80% of the win percentage while the Morning Line uses five runners on a corrected basis (the percentages divided by 100% + Takeout) to get to 80%.  I don't think weather will be an issue and expect firm turf.

Let's start with looking at some video.

Belmont Park; 6 June 2020; 1 1/8 Miles Inner Turf (Square around T for newbies on PP)  The Fort Marcy G2

Belmont Park; 4 June 2020; 1 3/8 Firm Turf (Circle around T for Main Turf);  The Tiller Stakes $80K


 Fairgrounds; 21 March 2020; 1 1/8 Miles on Turf; The Muniz Memorial Classic G2

I feel a bit rusty.  I have been handicapping for, hard to believe, 35 years this year, so rusty is relative, but I'm torn on my position on this race.  That's not a bad thing.  When you watch racing long enough you start to spot patterns, archetypes, a recurring pattern.  This movie seems very familiar.  I'm also not the type of race fan or handicapper that bemoans the quality of the field; handicap what you are given to work with and if you don't like the action, walk away.  It's that sentiment that allows me still have a roof over my head and a twenty eight year year marriage.

What to make of all this?  Instilled Regard is going to get bet hard.  Winning the Fort Marcy over this route of grass for Trainer Chad Brown who has Ortiz Jr up, does not hurt.  Brown sends three into a gate of eight, it almost doesn't seem fair or equitable.  I like Brown, I've been a fan of his for a very long time, but someone has to challenge is growing dominance on turf just to keep the dynamics of racing fair: 25% Graded Stakes winner in 241 starts, 27% Route Winner in 789 Starts, 26% Turf Winner in 666 Starts, 30% Won Last Start in 240 opportunities and 28% with the 2nd off a >45 day layoff.  Shocking numbers, and he dominates the top of the board here also saddling Rockemperor (Ire) and Devamani (Fr).  

Archetypes. Favorites for decades hovered as 30% winners from the gate.  That number is going up.  Does Instilled Regard come out of the gate, rate slightly off the flank and to the outside of  early speed Cross Over before handily passing and finishing by a length or two in front of a charging Rockemperor or Sadler's Joy? Admit it, you've seen this movie too.  Let's not be too jaded though.  Let's assume all Brown runners are allowed to compete fairly against each other, and we have no reason to believe he's dishonest (i discount his fine last year for back OT- the laws are slanted to protect workers, not employers, rightfully so, even if Brown was following standard practice on the backstretch), then is there value to be found in this race?  That's the only question a gambler has.  Yes, horse racing fans have other interests and concerns, but a gambler, the lifeblood of this sport, should have a narrow focus: Is there money to be made? Possibly, but not betting Brown horses Win Place Show.

My base handicap is in the chart.  It confuses some, but just because I handicap a winner doesn't mean I'll bet the handicap, its not sound gambling practice.  I'm leaning, tote board dependent, towards Devamani (Fr) on top, my tepid chalk.  While coming up short against Instilled Regard at 1 1/8 miles in June's Fort Marcy G2, Instilled Regard has a pretty low Tomlinson (309) for the extra furlong and has only one try at it in 17 lifetime starts.  Devamani has a field best 385 Tomlinson and his Class is off the charts, bred by Aga Khan Studs and selling for $322,000 (against only $294,000 career earnings).  The gelding may be a late bloomer, although conditioned by turf genius, Christophe Clement and Rob Atras, he is very sharp now in Brown's barn.  I'm hoping for 3-1 or better.

If you can't tell, I'm not estatic about this race from a gambling perspective.  Too much Brown, too much good Brown.  It's not top say crazy things don't happen, it's just not this gambler's business plan to hope for crazy.  I don't think it's crazy to think Sadler's Joy is starting to fade.  1 win in last 12:  Last 12 back to June 2018:  1 Win, 2 Place, 6 Show, 3 6th place finishes.  No longer a Grade 1 horse (except in fields like this), perhaps i'm wrong, and I have been before on older Champions, but I don't like the pace of this field for him.  He will get bet though, that's good.  So will Instilled Regard and Rockemperor.  That's good.  I'm going to keep my betting conservative and put Devamani on top with Dot Matrix and Cross Border to Show, a $2 bet for $4.  Plausible, not crazy, is the business plan.

It feels good to be back.  Thank you Thorofan.

Turk Out!

Handicapper's Corner: 2019 Belmont Derby Invitational (G1)

En Garde at the Wire

By: Michael Amo, ThoroFan Chairman

 

This is a renewal for this race at Belmont Park on Stars and Stripes weekend. It is also a renewal for this handicapper to try to figure out the race. Last year my pick, Hunting Horn, finished third. None of my other picks were in the money. Although I am hoping this year will be different, the large field of highly competitive horses is a challenge. 

The weather may impact the turf for the Belmont Derby Invitational and make this handicapping assignment even more difficult. With a 40% chance of scatter thunderstorms it is likely to make the turf soft. Watch for those that like softer going. 

 With a million-dollar purse the race has attracted a large field of good horses. A case can be made for a number of them to win or figure into the exotics.  Tough race.

A tell to understanding this race’s outcome may be the breeding and European entries who may like the soft going better than others. Three of them are using Lasix for the first time; a drug that is not used in their respective countries, but thought to have some performance enhancing qualities. O’Brien’s two are first-time-starters in North America and are first-time Lasix users.  

Three horses have shown sufficient early speed to keep the pace honest. They are Standard Deviation, Social Paranoia and Spinoff---all North American horses. However, it seems the strength in the race is possessed by those that come off the pace. This race should have an exciting finish.

Here is the field:

1.       Moon Colony (Uncle Mo) Won last out and will like the soft going; if it is. Distance may be his problem. Post position is not a plus. Not today.

2.       Standard Deviation (Curlin) Did OK in the Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland last year. Working nicely. Gets Brown’s rider Ortiz (J). May be Brown’s pace setter with some early speed. Is showing an improving pattern. Should be a contender through the stretch, as long as he can last.

3.       Seismic Wave (Tapit) Working nice. Mott prepped him over Belmont turf for this one. Fast in the lane.  He has a good deal of stakes-turf experience. He is a contender for exotics.

4.       English Bee (English Channel) Big class jump for this one. Will have trouble in the last furlong.

5.       Plus Que Parfait (Point of Entry) UAE Derby win causes respect. May try to push the pace. Turf ability is questionable.

6.       Henley’s Joy (Kitten’s Joy) Lower level turf stakes experience will help him here. Bullet work shows Maker has him ready. If the turf is soft it may compromise his chances. Not sure.

7.       Master Fencer (JPN) (Just a Way) His close in the Belmont Stakes (GI) on the wrong lead was impressive. Turf and distance seem ok. If he performs equally on the turf as he has on the dirt, he is a serious contender. Bringing in Japanese jockey Hamanaka is a powerful message. Contender.

8.       Social Paranoia (Street Boss) Looks like the best of Pletcher’s duo. However, J. Ortiz goes to Brown’s entry. Ran well over Belmont turf. Is expected to take the lead out of the gate. Maybe Franco can do it. Be cautious.

9.       Cape of Good Hope (IRE) (Galileo) This a solid O’Brien runner. Perfect for distance. Had trouble in last finding a gap. Not sure if that explains the result or is his form waning. Has a win going left-handed in April at Epsom. New jockey raises questions.

10.     Spinoff (Hard Spun) Has grade one experience, albeit without a win. Maybe too much to ask here as he tries turf for the first time. One thing seems likely. He will be pushing the pace out-of-the-gate.

11.     Blenheim Palace (IRE) (Galileo) Another O’Brien horse that comes west with new jockey and Lasix for first time. Plenty of left-handed running experience. Breeding by Galileo is a positive against these. Ran well against older-horses last time, which may be an important angle. Possible.

12.     Demarchelier (IRE) (Dubawi) Brown’s English entry who comes into the race undefeated on turf with jockey Castellano. Each race showed improvement. Belmont experience a positive. Distance may be an issue down the stretch. Could be in exotics.

13.     Digital Age (IRE) (Invincible Spirit) Keeps Irad Ortiz after closing to win a grade two at Churchill Downs on Derby Day and remaining undefeated. Rested with nice turf works at Belmont. Should be ready. Breeding questions distance. Contender, if has the stamina.

14.     Rockemperor (IRE) (Holy Roman Emperor) Gets jockey Velazquez in his North American debut. Brown tries Lasix for first time. Showed good form over turf at this distance last year. Should like the soft going. Brown’s best chance to win.

15.     He’s No Lemon (Lemon Drop Kid) [AE] Chance he will draw into the race, if Brown scratches Demarchelier. Castellano performed with him in last Belmont. Too much to ask here, if he draws in. Pass

With full field it is likely some horses’ performance could be compromised by post-position and bumping coming out of the gate. Condition of the turf course may be a factor, as well. As the field rounds the first turn the aforementioned speed horse should be in the first wave. The others will be positioning for their later moves. The most dangerous horse in the field is the Japanese horse, Master Fencer. He will be positioned near the rear of the field down the backside. As they enter the stretch Standard Deviation should have the lead with the closers coming. The likely challengers to take the lead are Master Fencer, the O’Brien entry, Blenheim Palace, Mott’s Seismic Wave and Brown’s, Rockemperor. This a race worth chasing some value. 

Here is how I see the race finishing:

1.      Master Fencer (#7)

2.      Blenheim Palace (#11)

3.      Seismic Wave (#3)

4.      Rockemperor (#14)

Handigamble ($100)

$10 to win and $30 to place on Master Fencer (#7)  ($40)

$5 Exacta Box (Master Fencer (#7), Blenheim Palace (#11) and Seismic Wave (#3))  ($30)

$1 Trifecta Box (Master Fencer (#7), Blenheim Palace (#11), Seismic Wave (#3) and Rockemperor (#14) ($24) (Use the balance to celebrate your win).

Good Luck, but keep the day job.