Handicapper's Corner: Turf Sprint Stakes (G3)

Analyzing the Runhappy Turf Sprint Stakes 

By: John Caro, S. FL ThoroFan Member

Welcome back to one of my favorite places to visit, Kentucky Downs. The only European style lawn in the U.S. Big named trainers and jockeys with some classy horses are the name of the game here. If you go sometime, and I hope you do, it’s a small venue but packed with an enthusiastic crowd. It’s country in every sense of the word. From the viewing area and the clubhouse, you really can’t appreciate the course as it appears a little undulating, but a walk down to the South end of the course just off the track gives one a greater appreciation for the down and then uphill grade of the turf. The horses must mount an attack to the bottom turn going down and then a two-tiered climb to the finish at the top of the hill. It’s challenging for the best of the horses, and jockeys must be keen in getting into position to rally up the hill to finish well.

My many trips there have pointed to the idea that horses that can close well, and I don’t mean deep closers, and have a steady speed/pace profile seem to do better than those who exhaust themselves to the front and slow their pace late. Steady numbers in the pacelines with a good speed number get my attention at Kentucky Downs.

The weather looks iffy on paper as the forecast is for 60-80% chance of thunderstorms, which can make this tough track even more challenging. This race is the last on the card and will be preceded by three graded stakes and a black type for juveniles. There are some very classy horses running here today for $500K and up in all the Grade III stakes and a Juvenile Stakes worth $500K. This is a day to play the stakes and enjoy some great races.

Get the free past performances, and look under Graham Motion for three of the races, one under Eddie Kenneally and one under Street Boss on the bottom of the page.

 

 

 

There are 12 set to run with 4 additional AE horses. The gate at the Downs only loads 12, so I expect they will fill the gate and some scratches will be had because of the weather. I will give you my top five in my order of preference and then list the AEs in another order should they come to play. As I said above, I have an outline of who I’m looking for as contenders. For the race today they are:

#9 Imprimis – Has won half his lifetime starts and took the Troy last out. Fast steady numbers and can handle a good grass track. Ortiz, I Jr. is up

#10 Richiesinthehouse – This Rivelli trainee has won 14 of 21 lifetime, has great numbers, and if given the lead, may sweep them clean. He goes very well on yielding grass. As a single, I would have to play him to win and then under in an exacta to my others. Great price.

#12 Bound for Nowhere – Might be bound for the winners circle given his record. Lightly raced this year but he’s won over this track and appears to be ready to go a little longer. Ward has been turning out some great wins off the layoff.

#11 Archidust – Another who has won half his lifetime starts and has great numbers. He looks like he can track the pace if it’s hot and finish well.

#3 Front Run the Fed – Steady pace numbers and able to sustain his pace late when it counts at this track. Who can argue with a Hall of Fame jockey up?

 

Also Eligibles:

#14 Fast Boat – Has the best numbers of the AEs and has won over this track with his jockey.

#13 Tiger Blood – Good numbers going for a third start off the layoff. He’s 20-1, and if Gaffalione is up, he knows how to get it done. Soft grass is not an issue last out.

#16 Admiral Lynch – Never tried the turf and has played at the lower levels, but is a Super Saver son and has good numbers with a jockey who, despite his late start at Saratoga, put on quite a show.

#15 Hollis – Not my idea of a good pick. If he enters, I would replace him with #6 Kanthaka or #2 Stubbins.

 

Handigambling

At of this writing and not having seen the track conditions or scratches I’m taking a short exacta box with my top five picks for a total cost of $20. With the odds as they are would pay well.

#10 WPS

$1 Exacta Box – 3 9 10 11 12 and replace with AEs as needed

#10 $10 Win $15 Place $20 Show

Here is a thought about the Pick 5 races 7-11 or a *Pick 4 races 8-11

4,6 w 1,7,8 w 4,6,10 w 10 (*7) w 9,10,11   Total cost $27

Good luck to everyone and enjoy the Dueling Grounds races. Be safe and hope we see some folks early next year.