Friday, March 27, 2020

Handicapper's Corner: 2020 Pan American Stakes (G2)

Pan American Stakes Draws Elite Field

By: Michael Amo, ThoroFan Chairman



Gulfstream Park is one of the few tracks to run in the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic. 

This weekend it will host, as planned, the Florida Derby absent of fans rooting their favorite on. The silence will be deafening. 

As long as the coronavirus is managed correctly and the environment is safe, we should have races tomorrow to enjoy.

The Kitten’s Joy Pan American Stakes (GII) is one of 10 graded stakes races on Saturday’s card of which only one is a grade I race –The Florida Derby.

The Kitten’s Joy has a prohibitive favorite, Zulu Alpha with a Morning Line odds of 3-5. He loves Gulfstream Park registering back-to-back wins with Beyer Speed Figures of 106 and 107 respectively.

As I look at my assignment, I think, should I even bother? Since we all remember huge upsets in big races, let’s proceed; here is the field.



1.       Channel Cat (English Channel) is a formidable contender with excellent workouts and an excuse for his last race. Yet in his last 12 starts, he won just once from the “I” post –wire to wire. It is not likely this strategy will work in this race. In the money, but not the winner.

2.       Bemma’s Boy (Into Mischief) is trained by Mike Maker who has three horses in the field of nine. This one and Go Poke the Bear look like pace-setters for his big one Zulu Alpha. With very little solid speed in the race, this may work.

3.       Spooky Channel (English Channel) eased last time against Zulu Alpha and works do not show confidence he will do better.

4.       Current (Curlin) is scheduled to be ridden by Castellano who just tested positive for COVID-19. Not sure if Jose will ride or Current will run. In either case not the Pletcher “A Horse”.

5.       Go Poke the Bear (Kitten’s Joy) is trying graded company for the first time. Bred nicely and showing improvement. Will need a few more before he is ready for this level.

6.       Galleon Mast (Mizzen Mast) ran second in a grade three race at Gulfstream two years ago. He has been competitive at a lower level. Not likely to be much of a factor.

7.       Prince of Arabia (Mineshaft) has tried this level and higher before with little success. Gets a jock who really knows the track. His running style may position him for piece and more if pace sets up for his quick foot in the stretch.

8.       Manicomio (Include) not much to show except his speed out of the gate. He will set the pace for as far as he can go. Expect no more.

9.       Zulu Alpha (Street Cry) he comes into this race on the Dean’s list from Beyers, Thorograph and 2020 record. This is his race to lose. His last two running styles will be compromised if the pace comes up too slow. But he might be too good in this field to make a difference.

10.     Focus Group (Kitten’s Joy) has been having trouble of late. Last made the Winner’s Circle a year ago. Gets new trainer. Leaving Chad Brown for Clement who is not great first out with new horse. He is major closer with a liking for winning off a long layoff. Will Clement get that done?

Handicapping this race shows my ability to ignore personal bias. I have supported Zulu Alpha many times over his career. Going into the race he looked like a single in a Pick-4 for me. Then the pace factor surfaced. With a slow pace up front, he will have to move up in position to be successful. PPs suggest this not in his toolbox. Then again, he may so much better than the rest that pace is a non-issue. What to do?

I think the two Maker horses and Manicomio will try to give Zulu Alpha the pace to run into. If Channel Maker tries to join them, they all may fail. The long-shot Prince of Arabia will follow the speedster hoping for an opportunity to accelerate when the leaders back-up. If Panici times it perfectly he should take over the lead inside the eighth pole bracing for the on-slot of closers. How exciting!


Results:
1.       #9 Zulu Alpha
2.       #7 Prince of Arabia
3.       # 10 Focus Group
4.       #1 Channel Maker 


Handigamble ($100)
$4 Trifecta Box: #1, # 7, #9 and #10 = $96
$2 Exacta Box:   #7 and # 9 = $ 4

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