Strong Line-up in Tampa Bay Derby
By: Michael Mills, ThoroFan
A dozen 3-year-old colts will contest the 1 1/6 mile Tampa
Bay Derby for a chance to earn 2020 Kentucky Derby qualifying points on a scale
of 50-20-10-5.
The Grade 2 race includes Sam F. Davis hero Sole Volante and
Mucho Macho Man stakes winner Chance It, who scratched from the Fountain of
Youth after receiving a wide post.
Let’s take a look at the field.
1. Texas Swing, Todd Pletcher - Javier Castellano –
Finished 4th in his career debut going six-furlong. He improved winning second out when
stretching out in a two-turn route over the Tampa dirt. Bred to enjoy a distance of ground, working
well, but he will have to continue to improve to be competitive in here vs. a
few of the more accomplished runners.
Keep an eye on the fellow down the road.
2. Spa City, Kiaran McLaughlin - Daniel Centeno – Has
improved with each start and added distance breaking his maiden in his last
race going one and one-eighth mile at Gulfstream. Working well but will need to continue his
improvement to make an impact here.
3. Relentless Dancer, Michael Maker - Antonio
Gallardo – Made his 3-year-old debut in the Grade 2 Holy Bull Stakes after
almost four months on the bench. He is
not facing Tis The Law nor Ete Indien in this lineup, and I’m expecting an
improved effort second off the bench.
4. Chance It, Saffie Joseph Jr. - Paco Lopez – Maybe
he’ll show up Saturday and actually run now that he has post 4. There clearly is talent here, 4 wins in 6
starts. Showed guts and ability winning
the Mucho Macho Man at Gulfstream back in early January beating As Seen On TV
and Sole Volante. On the Graded Stakes
level, I think he will find more success around one turn in the future.
5. Market Analysis, Todd Pletcher - John Velazquez –
The word was out when this guy made his debut at the end of January at
Gulfstream. Johnny V chooses this
Pletcher runner over Texas Swing. Has
been working fabulously throughout the month of February. If he can improve taking on two turns for the
first time, he could be a handful.
6. Mo Mosa, Michael Maker - Pablo Morales – Has a win,
place, and show finish in three starts at Turfway on synthetic. His numbers do not inspire. Would be a big surprise.
7. Sole Volante, Patrick Biancone - Florent Geroux –
Does this closer get the same setup that inspired his Sam Davis win is a big
question. Only one published work since
that win. Clearly has the ability but
will be beholden to others to do the dirty work upfront. Think this guy will be
better on the turf in the future.
8. Letmeno, Ian Wilkes - Chris Landeros – This grey
is bred to run all day. He has been an
honest one thus far in his career, showing up each time. However, he just doesn’t appear fast enough
to make an impact in this lineup.
9. Unrighteous, Todd Pletcher- Joe Bravo – Still a
maiden after two starts, Pletcher throws this youngster to the wolves in this
Grade 2. In his last, he improved off
his debut to run a close second to Spa City at Gulfstream. Another one coming into this event working
well. Blinkers go on. Any improvement from his last puts him in the
mix.
10. Bye Bye Melvin, Graham Motion - Julien Leparoux –
Won his last two starts on the Tampa turf.
None of his races on paper would make you run to the windows to back
this guy.
11. King Guillermo, Juan Carlos Avila- Samy Camacho –
Maiden win came on turf in his second outing.
He followed that up with a good run behind Sole Volante in the Pulpit
Stakes also on turf, note the King was the favorite in that race over Sole. Will he dirt and improve?
12. Tons of Gold, Alexis Delgado - Angel Suarez –
Still a maiden after 8 starts and draws post 12, he may want to call the same
uber as Chance It did last week and get out of town before they head to the
track.
The Pletcher/Uncle Mo Tampa Bay Derby (they both have 3
representatives in the race) is a tough one to call. Sole Volante may not get a super-fast pace to
close into. Do you Chance It? Could several of the lightly raced new
shooters continue to improve and make a serious impact here?
With that all said, I’m very interested in #3 Relentless
Dancer at what should be very fair odds.
I’m looking at his Holy Bull as a throw-out as he was bothered at the
start, had to play catchup into a hot pace, was going two turns for the first
time, and all that after a 3+ month layoff.
Looking for a much better performance Saturday.
Handigambling
$20 Win #3
$45 Place #3
$0.50 Tri 3 / 2,4,6,7,9, / 1,2,4,5,6,7,9,11 $17.50
$0.50 Tri 2,4,6,7,9 / 3 / 1,2,4,5,6,7,9,11 $17.50
Have A Day!
Mike Mills 
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