Friday, March 20, 2020

Handicapper's Corner: 2020 Fair Grounds Oaks (G2)

Infinite possibilities in the Fair Grounds Oaks

By: Laurie Ross, Pedigree Power



This week, the Fair Grounds Oaks is the first race in the 2020 Kentucky Oaks qualifying series to offer a tiered scale of 100-40-20-020 points. Six 3-year-old fillies will contest 1 1/16-mile the Grade 2 event. 






Let’s review the field.




Overwhelming favorite
FINITE (Munnings - Remit, by Tapit) is undefeated in five starts. She can sit anywhere in the pack and still make her run. The Steve Asmussen trainee defeated year’s champion 2-year-old filly, British Idiom in the Rachel Alexandra (G2) by 4 3/4 lengths, and could have won by more. 


Could have a say
BONNY SOUTH (Munnings - Touch the Star, by Tapit) is bred on the same cross as Finite, and she could be just as talented. In her last start, the Brad Cox trainee wore down Shedaresthedevil in an Allowance Optional Claiming event at Oaklawn. That one returned to capture the Honeybee Stakes (G3). 
   

ANTOINETTE (Hard Spun - Shuruq, by Elusive Quality) proved that she’s just as adept over the dirt as she is the turf when she captured the off the turf Tepin Stakes at Aqueduct. The daughter of UAE Oaks heroine Shuruq sat behind the pace and faced a wall of horses in the stretch. She pushed through a narrow opening on the rail to beat even-money favorite I Dare U by three-quarters length. 


TEMPERS RISING (Bayern - Marchmont, by Mountain Cat) tangled with Finite in their last two starts. She just missed in the Silverbulletday Stakes but had nothing to offer in her second start of the season in the  Rachael Alexandra (G2) after a wide trip. The Dallas Stewart trainee has finished off the board only once but has only a maiden win to her credit. Note that maiden victory was over a sloppy track, and an off-track could level the playing field.


May be out-classed
Last out maiden winner STOP SHOPPIN TAMMY (Tapit - Miss Shop, by Deputy Minister) moves way up in class and adds first time Lasix. The pretty gray filly could have the class to face this group since she’s a full sister to Tin Type Gal, winner of the Boling Springs (G3), and Miss Grillo (G3). Their dam is a Grade 1-winning half-sister to Tapiture, and another half-sister bore Grade 1 winner Power Broker. 


FRENCH ROSE (Raison d'Etat - Catlanta, by Medaglia d'Oro) is the most experienced filly in the field with ten starts under her girth. The distance-challenged miss has been fighting with $40,000 optional claimers in California, not always successfully. 


Selections
Could we see an exacta including two similarly bred daughters of Munnings?  It’s unusual, but not out of the realm of probability. ANTOINETTE could mess up that exacta though, as could TEMPERS RISING if she bounces back.

#6 FINITE (3/5)
#1 ANTOINETTE (12/1)
#4 BONNY SOUTH (4/1)
#3 TEMPERS RISING (9/2)


Handigambling
What do you do in a race with an overwhelming favorite? Well, don’t go Bridge Jumping! A Bridge jumper is a player who slaps a large place or show bet on the heavy favorite. This causes oversize payoffs on the other horses if the favorite doesn’t win.  It can be risky in small overmatched fields.

Your best bet is to either:
a) skip the wager and enjoy the race or 
b) box the favorite with those most likely to hit the board.

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