Handicapper's Corner: 2020 Alabama Stakes (G1)

 Diving Into the Alabama Stakes Selections

By: Laurie Ross, ThoroCap

The $500,000 Alabama Stakes is one of the few times 3-year-old fillies get the opportunity to run 1 1/4-miles on dirt.   

The Saratoga mainstay will be contested for the 140^th time on Saturday, and the Grade 1 event is a “win, and you’re in” qualifier for the Breeders’ Cup Distaff.  The Alabama will be shown live on NBC.

 

This year seven fillies will enter the starting gate. Besides class and current form, pedigree is a critical factor in determining who will handle the distance.

 

 

 

#5 SWISS SKYDIVER (1-1)

Swiss Skydiver toyed with fillies in three graded stakes before taking on colts in the Blue Grass (G2). She was no match for Art Collector, yet finished 4 1/2-lengths in front of the rest of the field, proving that nine furlongs is within her scope, although she got her final furlong in 13:38. The Ken McPeek trainee is a pacesetter and may have company upfront.  

The chink in Swiss Skydiver’s armor is that she’s highly suspect at ten furlongs. Her young sire, Daredevil, is a precocious sprinter/miler who earned Grade 1 status with a 2 1/2-length victory in the seven-furlong Champagne Stakes. He was unplaced in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and finished fourth as a tired favorite in the 2015 Travers Stakes. His distaff line includes graded winners from sprinters, Forego hero (G1) Here Comes Ben, to Don Handicap(G1) winner Albertus Maximus, who is Daredevils’ half-brother.  

Swiss Skydiver’s damsire Johannesburg is the damsire of 15 graded/listed winners in the U.S and Canada. Only 1 (Collected) is a winner at ten furlongs.

 

#3 CRYSTAL BALL (9-2)

Crystal Ball could be Swiss Skydiver’s main threat. The Bob Baffert trainee had a pacesetting rail trip in the nine-furlong CCA Oaks (G1) and was nagged the entire way by Paris Lights. The pair battled around the turn and down the stretch, and the more experienced Paris Lights won the head-bob. Crystal Ball was facing winners for the first time in the race and ran a winning race.

Crystal Ball is by Malibu Moon out of an unraced daughter of Giant’s Causeway, so she should handle ten furlongs. Her distaff line includes Ballerina (G1) winner Dubai Escapade, Ashland (G1) heroine Madcap Escapade, and that one’s daughter, Darley Debutante (G1) winner Mi Sueno.   

 

#2 SPICE IS NICE (3-1)

Spice is Nice placed second to Tonalist’s Shape in the Davona Dale (G2) earlier this year, and was no match next out for Swiss Skydiver in the Gulfstream Park Oaks (G2), finishing ten lengths behind her, although in Spice is Nice’s defense, she had a wide trip. In her first start off a layoff, the Todd Pletcher trainee beat optional claimers.  Despite being by Curlin out of a daughter of Bernardini, I don’t think Spice is Nice is up to the task, despite running big numbers in her last.

 

#1 ENVOUTANTE (8-1)

Envoutante has outclassed maidens and allowance level competition. She finished a distant third behind Speech in the Ashland, her first foray against Grade 1 company. Envoutante followed the pacesetter in a cushy rail trip, and had every opportunity; she just wasn’t fast enough. Envoutante has tactical speed, so with the right trip, perhaps she can stick around for a lower exotics award. Note that Jose Ortiz is seeking his fourth straight Alabama win.

By Uncle Mo out of a Bluegrass Cat mare, Envoutante carries legendary Claiborne bloodlines; Forty Niner is a full brother to Envoutante’s third dam, Abrade. That being said, Envoutante currently isn’t at the same level as other Alabama entrants, and ten furlongs could be beyond her scope.

 

#4 BONNY SOUTH (8-1)

After winning two straight stakes, Bonny South never got out of fourth place in the Ashland, finishing a dull two lengths behind third-place finisher Envoutante. It was her first start off a four-month layoff. A closer, Bonny South should get a good pace to close into in the Alabama.  I don’t care for her pedigree for getting the distance, but she could pass tired rivals for a piece.

Bonny South is by the wonderful filly sire, Munnings. His offspring are distance challenged, and from 35 graded/listed winners, only one, I’m a Chatterbox, has won at ten panels. She captured the 2016 Delaware Handicap in a glacial 2:02.64 but was second in that year’s Alabama. Bonny South’s distaff line offers hope of stamina; Her damsire is Tapit, and her female family includes several turf routers, including multiple graded winner Starformer.

 

#6 HARVEY’S LIL GOIL (10-1)

Harvey’s Lil Goil is the proud owner of three wins in five starts. She recently captured the nine-furlong Regret (G3) by a head over Churchill’s turf course, after sitting closer to the pace than usual. The last time Bill Mott did the turf-to-dirt switch,  the pretty gray filly responded with a six-length victory.

By American Pharoah out of a Tapit half-sister to Kentucky Derby winner, I’ll Have Another, Harvey’s Lil Goil is bred to run all day.

 

#7 FIRE CORAL (30-1)

Fire Coral is the “why” horse of the Alabama. She’s been beaten a combined 42 lengths in her last three starts, two Grade 3 races, and an optional claimer. Fire Coral has a lovely pedigree, by Curlin out of a daughter of A.P. Indy. Her half-sister Champagne Problems is a Grade 3 winner and Grade 1 placed, and the family includes Grade 1 winners Southern Image and Turbo Compressor. Perhaps Fire Coral will get it together as a 4-year-old.  

 

Race Keys

In the last ten years, only four favorites won.

Winning style is varied; closers and pressers have won three times each, while pacesetters and mid-pack runners have won twice.

 

Analysis

I’m going against Swiss Skydiver. Yeah, she’s one of the most brilliant fillies in her crop, and yeah, she was second in a field of so-so colts. She could be pushed or tested on the lead, and don’t think ten furlongs is her game. At even money, I’ll let her prove me wrong.

Crystal Ball could take it to Swiss Skydiver early. She drew inside the favorite and could get another rail trip. Crystal Ball is battle-tested and won’t quit in a battle. The question is – how much did the CCA Oaks take out of her?

Harvey’s Lil Goil at 10-1 has caught my eye. She’s a winner at nine furlongs and has the pedigree for ten. She has tactical speed. Mott sent out Elate, Royal Delta, and Sweet Symphony to victory in the Alabama. Harvey’s Lil Goil might not be at their level yet, but remember, Royal Delta wasn’t the favorite going into the Alabama and look at what she did.

Envoutante has a good/bad race cycle going on, and if it continues, she’s due for a “good” race.

 

#6 HARVEY'S LIL GOIL (10-1)

#3 CRYSTAL BALL (9-2)

#5 SWISS SKYDIVER (1-1)

#1 ENVOUTANTE (8-1)

 

Handicapper's Corner: 2020 Fair Grounds Oaks (G2)

Infinite possibilities in the Fair Grounds Oaks

By: Laurie Ross, Pedigree Power

This week, the Fair Grounds Oaks is the first race in the 2020 Kentucky Oaks qualifying series to offer a tiered scale of 100-40-20-020 points. Six 3-year-old fillies will contest 1 1/16-mile the Grade 2 event. 

Let’s review the field.

Overwhelming favorite

FINITE (Munnings - Remit, by Tapit) is undefeated in five starts. She can sit anywhere in the pack and still make her run. The Steve Asmussen trainee defeated year’s champion 2-year-old filly, British Idiom in the Rachel Alexandra (G2) by 4 3/4 lengths, and could have won by more. 

Could have a say

BONNY SOUTH (Munnings - Touch the Star, by Tapit) is bred on the same cross as Finite, and she could be just as talented. In her last start, the Brad Cox trainee wore down Shedaresthedevil in an Allowance Optional Claiming event at Oaklawn. That one returned to capture the Honeybee Stakes (G3). 

   

ANTOINETTE (Hard Spun - Shuruq, by Elusive Quality) proved that she’s just as adept over the dirt as she is the turf when she captured the off the turf Tepin Stakes at Aqueduct. The daughter of UAE Oaks heroine Shuruq sat behind the pace and faced a wall of horses in the stretch. She pushed through a narrow opening on the rail to beat even-money favorite I Dare U by three-quarters length. 

TEMPERS RISING (Bayern - Marchmont, by Mountain Cat) tangled with Finite in their last two starts. She just missed in the Silverbulletday Stakes but had nothing to offer in her second start of the season in the  Rachael Alexandra (G2) after a wide trip. The Dallas Stewart trainee has finished off the board only once but has only a maiden win to her credit. Note that maiden victory was over a sloppy track, and an off-track could level the playing field.

May be out-classed

Last out maiden winner STOP SHOPPIN TAMMY (Tapit - Miss Shop, by Deputy Minister) moves way up in class and adds first time Lasix. The pretty gray filly could have the class to face this group since she’s a full sister to Tin Type Gal, winner of the Boling Springs (G3), and Miss Grillo (G3). Their dam is a Grade 1-winning half-sister to Tapiture, and another half-sister bore Grade 1 winner Power Broker. 

FRENCH ROSE (Raison d'Etat - Catlanta, by Medaglia d'Oro) is the most experienced filly in the field with ten starts under her girth. The distance-challenged miss has been fighting with $40,000 optional claimers in California, not always successfully. 

Selections

Could we see an exacta including two similarly bred daughters of Munnings?  It’s unusual, but not out of the realm of probability. ANTOINETTE could mess up that exacta though, as could TEMPERS RISING if she bounces back.

#6 FINITE (3/5)

#1 ANTOINETTE (12/1)

#4 BONNY SOUTH (4/1)

#3 TEMPERS RISING (9/2)

Handigambling

What do you do in a race with an overwhelming favorite? Well, don’t go Bridge Jumping! A Bridge jumper is a player who slaps a large place or show bet on the heavy favorite. This causes oversize payoffs on the other horses if the favorite doesn’t win.  It can be risky in small overmatched fields.

Your best bet is to either:

a) skip the wager and enjoy the race or 

b) box the favorite with those most likely to hit the board.

Handicapper's Corner: 2020 Davona Dale Stakes (G2)

Pace May Shape the Outcome of Davona Dale Stakes

By: Michael Amo, ThoroFan Chairman

A group of nine well-bred fillies aspire for greatness as they all try the grade 2 level for the first time. For some, the rise is very steep. Yet as February closes maturity begins to show. 

Which ones will show the needed growth is the handicapping task at hand? The pace may make this one-turn challenge.

Let’s look at the field.

1.       Chart (Lea) benefited from the draw and may show some early speed. With a maiden win and the next race a graded event, a lot of questions precede the opening of the gates. A distance question exists. Preparing nicely with two bullet workouts. Has a chance to surprise, if she holds on. Big “IF”.

2.       Dream Marie (Graydar) loves Gulfstream Park boasting 2-for-2 on the surface, albeit at the Gulfstream West level. Answered some questions winning last out coming off the pace. Looks a little too slow for this crowd, although could improve off last. Positive jockey move. 

3.       Emily’s Oasis (American Pharoah) carries the right DNA into the gate. She will push the pace and should handle the 8-furlong distance. Working bullets. Last four starts in the money at 2. Can she improve enough for her for first start at 3? Maybe, but not likely.

4.       Nikki and Papa (Mineshaft) tried to break her maiden in the Grade 2 Forward Gal. Beat half the field at 22.5-1. Finished 3rd after a terrible start that would have done in most fillies at her age. Unlikely she will break her maiden at this level. 

5.       Reluctant Bride (Speightstown) after an impressive first start she tried the grade 3 level. Not good enough that day. She has the fastest fractions out of the gate for this one-turn mile. Jockey change to Prat may help. With nice gate work going for the lead early may be the strategy. Could hit the first turn on the lead with enough left to surprise. 

6.       Spice Is Nice (Curlin) should be the favorite after a 12-length win with an 84 Beyer and a 2 Thorograph number in first start at Gulfstream Park. Moderate works raise some questions. Velazquez and Pletcher team are formidable. Not sure if the first race was too much, too early. Might regress. But how much?

7.       Bayerness (Bayern) working bullets looking ready for the next step. Clearly consistent. With 3 months away from racing and first race as a 3-years-old may be a challenge. She knows how to get to the Winner’s Circle going 2-for-2 on two different tracks. Shows a quick late turn of foot. Could be in the mix at the wire.

8.       Addilyn (Palace Malice) showed promise at 2-years-old, but has not continued to do so. Beyers are uneven suggesting immaturity. Double bullet works suggest readiness, but maybe not at this level or this day.

9.       Tonalist’s Shape (Tonalist) perfect record at Gulfstream Park with top Gulfstream jockey. Her Beyers progressed at 2. Winning the Grade 3 Forward Gal this year tells the story. Thorograph figures suggest she needed that last race. Should recover nicely. Works are respectable for this start. She owns the highest Beyer of the field. Real contender.

So, what does this all this mean? Two horses seem poised to get out of the gate first ---Chart and Reluctant Bride. The one-turn race will force others not to drop back too far. Coming out of the turn the other seven will be moving on the leaders. 

Reluctant Bride’s closing punch and turf experience will make her the target in the final furlongs. It is likely that the attackers will be Spice Is Nice, Bayerness and Tonalist’s Shape. 

Here is how I see the race finishing:

1.      Tonalist’s Shape (#9)

2.      Bayerness (#7)

3.      Spice Is Nice (#6)

4.      Reluctant Bride (#5)

5.      Dream Marie (#2) –Long Shot

Handigamble ($100)

1.       $20 win bet on Tonalist’s Shape (#9) ----$20

2.       $40 place bet on Tonalist’s Shape (#9) --$40

3.       $1 Trifecta Box (#5, #6, #7 and #9)  ------$24

4.       $4 Exacta Key- #9/( #2, #5, #6, #7) -------$16

Good Luck on Gulfstream’s 10 stakes race-day-card. Have fun but, KEEP THE DAY JOB!