Diving Into the Alabama Stakes Selections
By: Laurie Ross, ThoroCap
The Saratoga mainstay will be contested for the 140th time on Saturday, and the Grade 1 event is a “win, and you’re in” qualifier for the Breeders’ Cup Distaff. The Alabama will be shown live on NBC.
This year seven fillies will enter the starting gate. Besides class and current form, pedigree is a critical factor in determining who will handle the distance.
#5 SWISS SKYDIVER (1-1)
Swiss Skydiver toyed with fillies in three graded stakes before taking on colts in the Blue Grass (G2). She was no match for Art Collector, yet finished 4 1/2-lengths in front of the rest of the field, proving that nine furlongs is within her scope, although she got her final furlong in 13:38. The Ken McPeek trainee is a pacesetter and may have company upfront.
The chink in Swiss Skydiver’s armor is that she’s highly suspect at ten furlongs. Her young sire, Daredevil, is a precocious sprinter/miler who earned Grade 1 status with a 2 1/2-length victory in the seven-furlong Champagne Stakes. He was unplaced in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and finished fourth as a tired favorite in the 2015 Travers Stakes. His distaff line includes graded winners from sprinters, Forego hero (G1) Here Comes Ben, to Don Handicap(G1) winner Albertus Maximus, who is Daredevils’ half-brother.
Swiss Skydiver’s damsire Johannesburg is the damsire of 15 graded/listed winners in the U.S and Canada. Only 1 (Collected) is a winner at ten furlongs.
#3 CRYSTAL BALL (9-2)
Crystal Ball could be Swiss Skydiver’s main threat. The Bob Baffert trainee had a pacesetting rail trip in the nine-furlong CCA Oaks (G1) and was nagged the entire way by Paris Lights. The pair battled around the turn and down the stretch, and the more experienced Paris Lights won the head-bob. Crystal Ball was facing winners for the first time in the race and ran a winning race.
Crystal Ball is by Malibu Moon out of an unraced daughter of Giant’s Causeway, so she should handle ten furlongs. Her distaff line includes Ballerina (G1) winner Dubai Escapade, Ashland (G1) heroine Madcap Escapade, and that one’s daughter, Darley Debutante (G1) winner Mi Sueno.
#2 SPICE IS NICE (3-1)
Spice is Nice placed second to Tonalist’s Shape in the Davona Dale (G2) earlier this year, and was no match next out for Swiss Skydiver in the Gulfstream Park Oaks (G2), finishing ten lengths behind her, although in Spice is Nice’s defense, she had a wide trip. In her first start off a layoff, the Todd Pletcher trainee beat optional claimers. Despite being by Curlin out of a daughter of Bernardini, I don’t think Spice is Nice is up to the task, despite running big numbers in her last.
#1 ENVOUTANTE (8-1)
Envoutante has outclassed maidens and allowance level competition. She finished a distant third behind Speech in the Ashland, her first foray against Grade 1 company. Envoutante followed the pacesetter in a cushy rail trip, and had every opportunity; she just wasn’t fast enough. Envoutante has tactical speed, so with the right trip, perhaps she can stick around for a lower exotics award. Note that Jose Ortiz is seeking his fourth straight Alabama win.
By Uncle Mo out of a Bluegrass Cat mare, Envoutante carries legendary Claiborne bloodlines; Forty Niner is a full brother to Envoutante’s third dam, Abrade. That being said, Envoutante currently isn’t at the same level as other Alabama entrants, and ten furlongs could be beyond her scope.
#4 BONNY SOUTH (8-1)
After winning two straight stakes, Bonny South never got out of fourth place in the Ashland, finishing a dull two lengths behind third-place finisher Envoutante. It was her first start off a four-month layoff. A closer, Bonny South should get a good pace to close into in the Alabama. I don’t care for her pedigree for getting the distance, but she could pass tired rivals for a piece.
Bonny South is by the wonderful filly sire, Munnings. His offspring are distance challenged, and from 35 graded/listed winners, only one, I’m a Chatterbox, has won at ten panels. She captured the 2016 Delaware Handicap in a glacial 2:02.64 but was second in that year’s Alabama. Bonny South’s distaff line offers hope of stamina; Her damsire is Tapit, and her female family includes several turf routers, including multiple graded winner Starformer.
#6 HARVEY’S LIL GOIL (10-1)
Harvey’s Lil Goil is the proud owner of three wins in five starts. She recently captured the nine-furlong Regret (G3) by a head over Churchill’s turf course, after sitting closer to the pace than usual. The last time Bill Mott did the turf-to-dirt switch, the pretty gray filly responded with a six-length victory.
By American Pharoah out of a Tapit half-sister to Kentucky Derby winner, I’ll Have Another, Harvey’s Lil Goil is bred to run all day.
#7 FIRE CORAL (30-1)
Fire Coral is the “why” horse of the Alabama. She’s been beaten a combined 42 lengths in her last three starts, two Grade 3 races, and an optional claimer. Fire Coral has a lovely pedigree, by Curlin out of a daughter of A.P. Indy. Her half-sister Champagne Problems is a Grade 3 winner and Grade 1 placed, and the family includes Grade 1 winners Southern Image and Turbo Compressor. Perhaps Fire Coral will get it together as a 4-year-old.
Race Keys
In the last ten years, only four favorites won.
Winning style is varied; closers and pressers have won three times each, while pacesetters and mid-pack runners have won twice.
Analysis
I’m going against Swiss Skydiver. Yeah, she’s one of the most brilliant fillies in her crop, and yeah, she was second in a field of so-so colts. She could be pushed or tested on the lead, and don’t think ten furlongs is her game. At even money, I’ll let her prove me wrong.
Crystal Ball could take it to Swiss Skydiver early. She drew inside the favorite and could get another rail trip. Crystal Ball is battle-tested and won’t quit in a battle. The question is – how much did the CCA Oaks take out of her?
Harvey’s Lil Goil at 10-1 has caught my eye. She’s a winner at nine furlongs and has the pedigree for ten. She has tactical speed. Mott sent out Elate, Royal Delta, and Sweet Symphony to victory in the Alabama. Harvey’s Lil Goil might not be at their level yet, but remember, Royal Delta wasn’t the favorite going into the Alabama and look at what she did.
Envoutante has a good/bad race cycle going on, and if it continues, she’s due for a “good” race.
#6 HARVEY'S LIL GOIL (10-1)
#3 CRYSTAL BALL (9-2)
#5 SWISS SKYDIVER (1-1)
#1 ENVOUTANTE (8-1)
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