How to bet the Forgo (G1) Stakes
By: John Caro, S. Fl ThoroFan member
Looks like we may see some rain Saturday afternoon for this one.
The track was sloppy and off the turf Thursday but didn’t stop the game but we saw a lot of scratches. Early speed pretty much ruled the day.
#1 Everfast – Sisterson/Santana – Recent winner here at the distance against lessor company. He can show up in second at high odds and make for big payouts.
#2 Whitmore – Moquett/Saez – After a great campaign at Oaklawn earlier he came to Saratoga in late July to place in the Vanderbilt beating out Mind Control and Firenze Fire going shorter. Always a contender and can go wet or dry. Gets an aggressive jockey who has been on fire lately.
#3 Lexitonian – Sisterson/Lezcano – Came second after a layoff in the Bing Crosby last out. He is a globetrotter. Never been on an off track but he’s a Spreightstown colt and should be able to go well. Could be a price horse.
#4 Funny Guy – Terranova/Rosario – Rosario stays with this one after winning the last two on him in good time. A lead or tracker with winning ways in off going. I like him and hope the odds stay up.
#5 True Timber – Sisterson/Carmouche – Sisterson’s third entry. This is a new barn for TT. His last out was lackluster but recent training at Keeneland is super. Hard to know if he’s coming back into form.
#6 Complexity – Brown/Ortiz JL – One of two entries for Brown who is at the top of the trainers list here. His jockey (and jockey’s brother) is at the top of this very tough colony of jockeys. Anything sent out by Brown is dangerous. Only drawback for the colt is he’s never gone in the wet but again his breeding suggests he will do fine.
#7 Win Win Win – Trombetta/Castellano – He’s coming off a break after losing to the one above at Belmont in July. This will be his third outing this year after an 11 month break. Workouts look good with a bullet two back. I believe he is coming into form and at a price. Castellano up.
#8 Firenze Fire – Breen/Alvarado – He is a high speed animal and I like him stretching out another furlong with his buddies Whitmore and Mind Control. I think he goes better at 7. If it’s track fast for some reason, he goes up my list. If it’s wet, he has his work cut out for him.
#9 Majestic Dunhill – Weaver/Franco – I’m not sure why he’s running on this surface as his record shows a horse who makes his money on the turf and only won once on the dirt, albeit on a wet track.
#10 Mind Control – Sacco/Velazquez - Johnny V has been up for most of this colt’s career and knows him well. He seems to relish the distance and is four for seven lifetime and loves Saratoga. Hard not to like him.
Okay almost done.
#11 Fortin Hill – Brown/Ortiz Jr – Brown is pretty slick picking up the two top riders of the meet for this race, Isn’t he? So this lightly raced winner, winner, winner and a second with Irad Ortiz, Jr. up for all the wins, has me grinning at 6-1. Never been in a stakes race, out of the Brown barn with Ortiz I Jr. up, made a 7 furlong run at Belmont last out one fifth off the 18 year old track record time, and has won in the slop; this is my kinda horse, err colt.
$100 Handigambling Menu *primary bets for any amount you’d like
$20 to Win and $30 to Place #11 — $50*
$1 Trifecta #11 with 2, 4, 6, 7, with 1, 2, 3, 4, 6, 7, 8, 10 — $28
$1 Exacta #11 with 1, 2, 3, 4, 6, 7, 8, 10 — $8*
$1 Exacta #11 with 1, 3, 7, 10 — $4*
$2 Exacta All with 11 — $20
Enjoy the race and be careful out there while we wear our masks and enjoy company at a distance. Take care of each other.
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