Don't Sleep on the Europeans in the Kentucky Turf Cup
By: John Caro, ThoroFan Handicapper
Saturday’s $2 million Kentucky Turf Cup Invitational (G2) is a qualifier for the Breeders’ Cup Turf (G1). There are ten going 1 1/2 miles over the undulating lawn. One mare, two horses, and seven geldings who together have run a combined 49 graded stakes races of the ten posted races seen in the pps. There are multi-million-dollar winners in this group, and even the one with the lowest money in his purse has gone two for two this year.
Kentucky Downs is the only European-style racetrack in the US. It is quite unique. I've made several visits over the years, and although its clubhouse and the casino have grown, the racetrack and the wide-open rustic atmosphere of the track have not. It's a downhill slide on the back stretch, and the uphill terraced climb to the finish line is a challenge for any horse, even great ones.
Carded as race 7 of 12, post time for the KY Turf Invitational is 3:56 PM CT. Let's take a look at the field.
1. Tiffany 9/2 – Sir Prescott/Morris, L. – This six-year-old gal has been out of the money twice in her lifetime. Of her last ten posted races, she's been in the exacta 9 times. Of her seven lifetime races at 1 1/2 miles, she's never been out of the exacta, winning two and placing five times. Her last out was a win by a neck in a GI in Berlin. She has raced both in England and on the Continent. Morris has been aboard for every listed race.
2. Desvio 30-1 – Meyers/Velasquez – He has seen some declining form since winning the Sycamore last year and his second-place finish against today's favorite, Burnham Square, in the Elkhorn, both at Keeneland.
3. Dresden Row 12-1 – Pletcher/Gaffalione – He took a half-length loss to Burnham Square last out in the Arlington Millions at Colonial going 1 1/4 miles. Pletcher got this horse back in June. When Row was in Pletcher's barn, he was two for two going shorter, but his running style as a tracker from midpack makes him worth a look since he's never been out of the money in his lifetime starts. He has also never gone 1 1/2 miles.
4. Eff Thirty Five 30-1 – Maker/Fresu – This is the junior money winner with two for two this year in a minor stake at Penn National and an Optional Claiming race at Colonial. He did show in a 1 1/2 mile event on the Woodbine synthetic in a Grade 3, beaten by 2 1/2 lengths. He may be up against it with his crowd, but there are some encouraging things about him. He's by Yoshida out of an Unbridled’s Song mare, which says distance is not an issue. Maker picked him up after his last race and has worked him solid since. And finally, Fresu is the number 3 winningest jockey at the Del Mar meet. He is very dangerous on the turf.
5. Layabout 20-1 – Biancone/Asmussen, K – This Laoban gelding has only had one try at 1 1/2 miles, but it was a good one, winning in the McKnight (G3) on the lead. In his last outing, he missed by 3/4 length to Burnham Square in the Arlington Million after running on the front to the stretch. I don't think his running style is going to be favorable with this group.
6. Ethical Diamond 3-1 – Mullins/Moore – Last seen winning a prestigious Grade 3 at Leopardstown IRE going this distance. He's 3 of six at the distance and, oh yeah, he won the BC Turf last year at Del Mar at 28-1. Ryan Moore is one of the top Jockeys in the world, as is the trainer William Mullins. See the numbers on the pps. Not sure what happened in Meydan or at Ascot, but it appears he's recovered to form.
7. Burnham Square 2-1 – Wilkes/Hernandez, B – Geez, what do you say about a horse that, since moving to the turf last year here in Nashville, missing by a neck, and then another narrow defeat at Gulfstream, goes on to win four in a row, including a G3, G2, G1, and a black type? The G2 and G3s were both at today's distance, so lifetime he is two for two, and Brian Hernandez has been up for all four wins, earning $1.1M this year. We understand why he is the morning-line favorite.
8. Ole Crazy Bone 8-1 – Maker/Ortiz, J – This guy is the defending champion for last year's version of this race. He was last seen losing by 4 lengths in the Christopher Clement Stakes at Saratoga on a yielding turf, on Castellano’s attempt to win number 6000. He likes to be on or very close to the lead, and he is very dangerous when he sets moderate fractions and then closes like a freight train. This is an 8-1 shot with the current leading jockey at Saratoga visiting for a few mounts at KD.
9. Echo Lane 30-1 - Crichton/Saez - Echo has not fared well this year. His earnings are half of what he made last year, his form has dropped off, and he has run 31 times in his race career at five. The best we've seen from his 1 1/2 mile efforts are two shows in the Pan Am and Louisville this year. His last effort found him fourth by 7 lengths. He's lost to Burnham Square twice this year. I don't see him creating enough change to be a factor for this race.
10. Fort George 9/2 – Walker/Spencer, J – Last seen losing by a nose to Ole Crazy Bone in the Bowling Green at Saratoga in July. He's bred to run all day but has only had one race at this distance in a G2 in Dubai, missing by 1 1/2 lengths to a horse named Rebel Romance if you're familiar with that one? He's been working steadily at his craft on the Saratoga turf training track. He's only been out of the money one time in his last ten and in the exacta 7 out of his last ten.
Analysis
Quite the crowd. Any one of these can and could win this race. I will point out that Kentucky Downs is unique with its undulating surface. I would suggest that horses and mares that typically run on tracks that are both undulating and often yielding have an advantage over horses that typically run on flat turf and firm ground. I'm speaking to the European runners. And there are three with excellent credentials. My picks are below
Handigambling…. Make a note. Kentucky Downs minimum Win Wager is now $5. I suggest you opt for Exactas and Trifectas and wheel or key your wagers. Below is a menu of wagers. Choose one or make your own.
$5 Exacta Box 1,6,8 = $30
$.50 Trifecta 1,6 with 1,6,7,8,10 with 1,3,4,5,6,7,8,10 = $24
$.50 Trifecta 1,3,4,5,6,7,8,10 with 1,6 with 1,6,7,8,10 = $24
$1 Trifecta 8 with 1,4,6 with 1,3,4,5,6,7,10 = $18
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