Pace, Class and Form Rule Mr. Prospector Stakes
By: John Caro, S. FL ThoroFan Handicapper
The optimal
words for this race are Quick Pace, Class and Form. And we do have some serious
class it this race along with super-hot pace contained in two of the
contenders. Form is another matter.
The weather
is forecast to be 40% chance of rain and that throws another factor in for an
interesting race for this short field of six. The rain-slicked surface at
Gulfstream has rarely deterred quick starters from getting to their front
running style positions and keeping it.
The top
contenders for this race are without question; #3 - X Y Jet (Navarro/Jaramillo) and #2 - Imperial Hint (Carvajal/Castellano). Both like to be on the
lead and it’s a question of who will go first from neighboring gates. Both have
the class experience of the field and have tangled with the best of the
sprinters in the past few years.
X Y Jet
is the speed of the speed and his jockey is aggressive, so unless
Navarro says otherwise I think he’ll be in his usual spot in the first quarter
and try to stay there and improve his position. The other great news is his
speeds over this track wet (103) or fast (111) as a seven-time winner with four
places at Gulfstream he has to be given a top pick for the race at least on
paper. Concerning news is he has not raced since March when he won the
$2.5M Golden Shaheed in Dubai defeating Imperial
Hint but, we look at his past breaks and he recovers well. His works since
coming back in October have been bullet, maintenance, and bullet, repeat….he is
likely in shape to get things done but, his record at the distance is not so
hot with two placings in three races. He loves 6 furlongs but not 7.
Imperial Hint, on the other hand, has won three of
five at the distance at 106 and three for four on a wet track at 109. And his
only race at Gulfstream was an impressive win when Castellano ranged him back a
bit after the start (keeping him out of trouble) and let him fly into the lane.
Pretty impressive and he seems to have improved off his defeat in Dubai and run
his last two outings in great style including smashing the track record at
Saratoga in the Grade I Vanderbilt off a four-month break shooting bullet works
before that race. Looking at his last five bullet works, including at .58 and 2
at Tampa (who does that anywhere?) says to me he’s on track to beat his best
speed and throw a 107 or more for the distance. The only downside I see for him
is he’ll carry the high weight. He will likely give X Y Jet all he’ll want in this speed race.
#4 – Zenden (Pletcher/Velazquez) is a Fed Biz colt who was very
precocious and a Derby trail candidate last year when he lost it at Lexington
and moved into the Pletcher barn. Apparently, his training has paid off in his
only start in a mid-level optional claiming race at Gulfstream West. He has
some back class but has only had one race since the spring. He did shoot a
bullet in his latest work and he may well try to go with the leaders. Pletcher
has been very hot at Gulfstream and Johnny V has not. In his favor is Zenden’s
record here where he is two for three and a placing at Gulfstream going this
distance in the Grade III Swale earlier this year. And though he carries the
low weight of the group this 3-year-old may have his work cut out for him
facing older classy horses and there is no indication that he’ll want to go in
the wet if that’s the case.
#1 – Home Base (Tomlinson/Landeros) has done well at the distance winning
four of six facing lesser horses. Although his breeding says he should go well
over a wet track his performances with those conditions (and artificial) are
very poor. If it’s wet I would make him a toss. He’s also found trouble
in several races and his speed figures are below par for this crowd. Just can’t
see him making an impact.
#6 – Diamond Oops (Biancone/Leparoux) shows some class but lost by four
lengths to Imperial Hint at Saratoga
while IH was setting a record. He does show some propensity for wet conditions
going two for two lifetime at 100 and is four for five over the track. Leparoux
is a dangerous fellow if he tracks the pace of hot fractions and sets down in
the stretch as he did in the Smile here earlier in June. The fact that the two
top contenders are going to set wicked fractions puts Diamond Oops in a very
good position to be close at the finish.
Then there is
this guy: #5 – Lasting Legacy
(Servis/Ortiz, Ij) who has likely not been on many radars ‘cause he’s been
hanging out with lesser horses in other places but under his trainer (who’s had
him twice) he’s five for five. He won a black-type at Monmouth last out (the
Mr. Prospector, what’s the chances?) with Paco Lopez up. Where’s Paco? Well, he
must be busy winning somewhere else on Saturday ‘cause his name is not on the
program at Gulfstream. But hey, we do have the ever-present Irad Ortiz, Jr. up
for Jason Servis and both trainer and jockey are hotter than a freshly fired
pistol, so be careful!
Lasting Legacy
is the quintessential closer who can follow a quick pace and with a well-timed
ride may win at a price. His breeding say’s he can go in wet conditions as
well. This is my longshot for this race. He makes sense (and more cents) given
the likely pace scenario and should have a good price.
In a hot pace
scenario like this the faster the better for the closers. If given the chance
to drive in to the pace closers can and do win.
Handi-gambling with $100
$8 Trifecta – 2,3 with 5 with All $64 – bet that as 8 $1 trifectas
$3 Trifecta – 5 with 2,3,6 with
All $36 – bet that as 6 $0.50 trifectas
Ya’ really could just play a $0.50
trifecta on the second bet and a $2 tri on the first and you’re in for $30 and
save the rest for another day…be a handi-player.
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