Friday, January 3, 2020

Handicapper's Corner: 2020 Sham Stakes (G3)

Baffert v. Baltas in Sham Stakes

By: Laurie Ross

 

The Sham Stakes (G3) named in honor of the 1973 underdog who shadowed Secretariat through the Triple Crown series, is the first step on the 2020 Kentucky Derby trail this year for 3-year-old colts.  The one-mile event is a Kentucky Derby qualifier, awarding points to the top four finishers. 


Only two colts have hit the board in both the Sham and the Kentucky Derby; Empire Maker finished second in both races in 2003 and 2005, Giacomo was third in the Sham during his successful trip to Louisville. 

A condylar fracture took last year’s Sham winner Gunmetal Gray off the Triple Crown trail, and he’s currently recovering. 2018 Sham winner McKinzie missed the Kentucky Derby and evolved into a 1 1/8-mile specialist. 2017 Sham winner Gormley captured the 2017 Santa Anita Derby, but placed ninth in the Kentucky Derby, and 2016 Sham victor Collected missed the Derby, but evolved into a good handicap horse. 

This year, six 3-year-old colts will run a mile over the Santa Anita main track. 



The Top Trio
Bob Baffert has conditioned three of the last six Sham Stakes winners. This year, he sends out a pair of last-out maiden winners, Azul Coast and Authentic.

AZUL COAST (Super Saver - Sky Treasure, by Sky Mesa) had a six-wide trip the entire way in a one-mile maiden event over a sloppy Los Alamitos track, but was impressive, winning easily under a hand ride by four lengths, Drayden Van Dyke never touching the whip at any point. Azul Coast owns the highest late-pace speed figure in the field. 

Azul Coast has a miler/middle distance pedigree, and could wind up on turf later in his career, as the blacktype earners in his female family did their best over turf and Woodbine’s Polytrack. Azul Coast is the first foal out of the Grade 2-winning turf miler, Sky Treasure. She’s a half-sister Grade 3-winning turf miler Surgical Strike. Last year’s Grey Stakes winner Chapalu is out of a half-sister to Sky Treasure.  Azul Coast’s third dam Bold Ruritana was 1995 Canadian Champion Older Mare and Champion Turf Female.

The “other” Baffert horse AUTHENTIC (Into Mischief - Flawless, by Mr. Greeley),  had an awkward start in his debut but quickly jumped into contention, pressing the pace before taking over in the stretch and winning the 5 1/2 furlong race by 1 1/2 lengths.  The Baffert trainee tuned up for the Sham with a second to last 5F :59.80 bullet. Drayden Van Dyke rode Authentic in his debut, but sticks with Azul Coast while Joel Rosario takes over. 

Authentic has a humble miler pedigree. His dam Flawless won at seven furlongs, and placed in her only other start at a mile, and she’s only one of two foals to race out of an unraced dam. The third generation of Authentic’s female family includes three stakes-placed runners.

Richard Baltas also sends out a pair of Sham contenders. 

Breaking from the far outside, TAISHAN (Twirling Candy - Grace Phil, by Philanthropist) showed his fondness for Santa Anita with a one-length victory in his second start. The Richard Baltas trainee was green down the stretch, lugging in from the whip, and hesitating before passing Tizamagician, a later-maturing Tiznow colt.  Once past his rival, Taishan regained confidence and cleared late to win by a length. Taishan’s speed figure increased from his first to second start, always a good sign.

Taishan has a miler/middle distance pedigree. There’s little blacktype in his family, although his dam is a Canadian stakes winner over turf and Polytrack.  

Sure, UNCAPTURED HERO (Uncaptured - Nifty Shindig, by Mr. Greeley) won a maiden claiming event, but it was a $100,000 claimer at Del Mar, closer to a maiden special. This is one game colt. He was head ‘n head the entire race, shoulder to shoulder, even bumping a few times. Uncaptured Hero stuck his head in front a few strides from the wire. 

Uncaptured Hero has a miler pedigree. Class skips to the third generation of his female family, where we find Dubai Golden Shaheen hero, and tough competitor Caller One. 


Looking for an Upset
ZIMBA WARRIOR (Khozan - Slick and True, by Yes It's True) is the most experienced colt in the field, with six starts under his girth. He’s only stood in the winner’s circle once but has placed third three times. The Keith Desormeaux trainee was last seen finishing a distant third behind High Velocity in the Bob Hope Stakes. Zimba Warrior owns the second-highest late-pace speed figure in the field.

Zimba Warrior has a sprinter/miler pedigree and is a member of the same family as super filly Songbird. 

SCORING (Justin Phillip - High Heeled Hope, by Salt Lake) hasn’t seen competition since June. He was in contention the entire race and finished a head behind the winner, Cal’s Gem. That one bore out from the whip, squeezing the third-place horse, who was making a move between horses. Scoring was awarded the victory through DQ.  

Scoring has a sprinter/miler pedigree. He’s a full brother to Grade 3 winning sprinter Lady T N T, plus a half brother to Sweet Hope, a Grade 3 winning sprinter who placed in the Test (G1). Scoring’s dam High Heeled Hope is a multiple stakes-winning sprinter and placed in the Hollywood Starlet and Las Virgenes. 


Selections:
 Simplistically, the race boils down to Baffert vs. Baltas. Three colts may vie for the lead – Authentic on the rail, Uncaptured Hero and Scoring, although the latter could probably rate. Zimba Warrior and Taishan can settle right behind the pace, along with Azul Coast.  

#1 AUTHENTIC (8/5)
#6 TAISHAN (5/2)
#3 UNCAPTURED HERO (6/1)

Handigambling:
Six-horse fields don’t offer a lot of options. 

$100 virtual ThoroFan currency
$4.00 Super box - #1, #3, #4 #6 = $96.00

No comments:

Post a Comment