Laying down the law in the Holy Bull
By: Laurie Ross, ThoroCap
The path to the 2020 Kentucky Derby via Florida starts
Saturday in the Holy Bull (G2) at Gulfstream Park. Seven 3-year-old colts led by Tiz the Law
will contest 1 1/16-miles. The top four finishers will receive Derby qualifying
points on a 10-4-2-1 scale.
Thunderstorms are expected, so the track may be wet.
Let's review the field.
The Favorite
TIZ THE LAW is obvious class of the field. He’s had
his troubles in every start. He was able to overcome them in two starts but was
left with too much to do in the Kentucky Jockey Club, which was run over a muddy
track. I don’t think the mud was so much the issue as the poor trip. If Tiz the
Law gets a clear trip and can stay closer to the pace than in previous starts,
the Barkley Tagg trainee should win this.
Spoiler Alert
TOLEDO was wide the entire way in traffic in his last
start, which was against Ete Indien. This time, Toledo gets a coveted rail post
and can save ground. His speed figures are improving, and he should be fit
second off the layoff.
ETE INDIEN took advantage of post 1 and a speed
favoring track to score by 2 1/2-lengths over Toledo. However, the Patrick Biancone
trainee drifted like a floundering boat down the stretch. Since it was Ete
Indien’s first start off the layoff, I expect that he will be sharper for the
Holy Bull.
Upset Chance
Multi-talented on turf and dirt, UNCORK THE BOTTLE was
a sneaky $16,000 claim from the Ramseys. Joseph Saffie, Jr. is a 31% trainer
and hot right now. Not thrilled that Uncork the Bottle’s Brisnet speed figures
have declined in each start, but his last two works were sharp, and he
out-performed his stablemate. Former Gulfstream claimer rags to riches stories
are all the rage, so why not? He has the
right running style and could pull an upset.
Up Against It
The most experienced colt with nine starts, CLEAR
DESTINATION gets another chance to prove his true destination is the turf/Polytrack.
He’s by a Grade 1-winning turf router out of a hardy sprinter/miler, whose best
work was over a wet track. If it’s muddy, maybe he’ll like that surface and
grab a lower exotic spot.
RELENTLESS DANCER has a sprinter’s pedigree. He won
his maiden in a dead heat with Silver State, who returned two starts later to
run a fast-closing second in the LeComte. The Louisiana-bred Relentless Dancer demolished
state-breds next out. Distance is a concern for this son of Munnings. His half-siblings
didn’t win beyond 1 mile 70 yards. His dam missed by a nose at 1 1/16-miles
over the lawn, but she too was best as a sprinter.
MAYBERRY DEPUTY improved to win his third start, a
mile maiden race at Gulfstream. He beat a full field, but the ones who finished
behind him are still finishing behind other horses, so the quality of the field
is suspect, other than Gear Jockey, who proved he prefers the turf.
Additionally, the Ken McPeek trainee timed his final furlong in an uninspiring
13.47. Mayberry Deputy was well-beaten by Lynns Map and Gold Street in previous
starts. Another sign that this son of Mayberry Deputy isn’t fast enough to
arrest the competition.
SELECTIONS
Tiz the Law is the clear
class, couldn’t be working any better, and is the likely favorite. I like this
horse. All that being said, this is his first start back, Post No. 5 and Tiz
the Law’s mid-pack running style means Manny Franco will likely have to take
the colt wide around the turn. Maybe Tiz
the Law is fit enough to overcome this disadvantage, but realize that this is
one stepping stone to the ultimate goal of Kentucky. Instead, I’m looking for Toledo to pull the upset from post one.
#1 Toledo (7/2)
#3 Tiz The Law (3/5)
#4 Ete Indian (6/1)
#2 Uncork The Bottle (12/1)
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