Handicapper's Corner: 2020 Robert B. Lewis Stakes (G3)

High Velocity hoping for R.B. Lewis Impact

By: Alex Susville

The connections between Bob Baffert and the Grade 3 Robert B. Lewis Stakes this Saturday at Santa Anita go far beyond his 4-5 morning line favorite. Baffert will be looking to continue his current record of 7 wins in the Robert B. Lewis, including last year’s victor who is on his way to Saudi Arabia following last weekend’s grade 1 score in the Pegasus World Cup. Robert B. Lewis himself was a prominent Thoroughbred owner and had several horses that trained with Baffert, including the Kentucky Derby, Preakness and Dubai World Cup winner in Silver Charm. 

Fast forwarding from racing history to 2020, Baffert brings in a strong Kentucky Derby hopeful in Thousand Words, who comes off of an impressive victory in the Grade 2 Los Alamitos Futurity. Coming off of a splendid effort in the stretch at Los Alamitos to defeat the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile runner-up in Anneau D’or, he comes back to the Great Race Place looking strong. Although there is very high hopes for another son of Pioneerof The Nile in the hands of Baffert, there are several questions to be answered as well as derby points to be had.

Here's the field.

 

My Analysis:

Thousand Words, one of two Baffert runners in this field is the obvious choice and the wagering odds should reflect just that. With only a 6 horse field heading to the gate I am expecting to see Thousand Words at an extremely short price. Despite the fact that it has been an impressive start to the young career of this horse, there are still several questions that need to be answered. Personally, I do find it tough at times to take a horse off of just two starts at such a low price. Usually, in this case, there are many unknown factors that have the capability to shake up a race that on paper looks pretty cut and dry. 

The question marks for Thousand Words come from a win in the slop at Los Al and defeating only a 4 horse field in the process. Now with that being said, there are many great things to say about this horse and it is why I think if you want to take a swing and paint the picture of this race without him you need to check the other side of the shedrow. 

Baffert’s 2nd choice in the race, High Velocity, is a speed horse who got pushed in the slop at Los Alamitos and really help set up the pace for Thousand Words. In one start at Santa Anita, High Velocity was able to sit just off the pace and make his move to go by and break the maiden, one of two wins so far in three career starts. 

This horse is one that if able to either just sit off of another pacesetter, either Thousand Words or the Richard Mandella trainee Tizamagician, could set himself up for a shot at a bigger piece of the pie. Joel Rosario will be jumping aboard for the first time so hopefully Joel can put this horse in the best possible spot to have something left for a potential duel to the wire with his stablemate or a late closer. 

The other horse who caught my eye in this spot is in the process of coming off the grass. Encoder out of post 1 loses jockey Joel Rosario to High Velocity but has the hall of fame hands of Mike Smith to guide in his first event on the main track, following his first stakes win in the Eddie Logan back on opening weekend. 

By English Channel, Encoder is a horse that began strong on the turf with back to back wins but struggled when bumped up against higher class competition. Not sure if this is an attempt to chase after the derby trial or if following a win, they believe this horse could take to the dirt and be competitive with the bunch that are currently in the field. I think this horse is definitely interesting and one to watch because the talent has been there in the past and although the sire shows turf class, being out a Hard Spun mare has proved to have some dirt influence, just ask 2018 Haskell winner Good Magic.

My Bets

$50 win - 5 - High Velocity - $50

$10 Exacta Box - 1/5 - $20

$15 Straight Exacta - 1,5/2 - $30

Total: $100

Final Thoughts:

In this case, I believe there are a few shots that can be taken to make money in this smaller field. Thousand Words can be viewed as a tough horse to play against, however at the same time he will be a huge underlay and with a small sample size so far, I feel it is not set in stone that he jogs around the Santa Anita oval. High Velocity is a very capable horse that with enough left in the tank in the stretch has every capability to defeat his stablemate. Encoder will definitely need to make a big step up here to be at the same level as the Baffert trainees but if he takes to the dirt and gives effort like last time out should be able to be a part of the action. Despite the size of the field, this has the opportunity to become an action-packed race when turning for home, however, if it ends up a two-horse duel it could be for who gives Baffert triumph #8.