How to play the short Bold Ruler field

By: Robert Marks, (@theyreinthegate) 

Saturday at 4:57 pm Eastern time is the $100,000 Grade 3 Bold Ruler Stakes, a handicap race for 3-year-olds and upward on the dirt at 7 Furlongs. This will be the final weekend of racing in this crazy Pandemic year of 2020. There will be no fans allowed in, but you can watch the race on MSG, Fox Sports Network, or TVG. This is a good race to watch. As far as betting, I would like to see a larger field, but we will have to accept the short 6 horse field and go with that.

Here's your field of 6

 

In a short field we always look for value. Thus for us, we toss Phat Man, Share theRide, and Majestic Dunhill, all at 2-1 or lesser odds.

 

That leaves us with the Arch Cat (10-1), Wendell Fong (10-1), and Mihos (4-1).

 

Mihos last won back in April in an Optional Claimer against much weaker competition. He ran at Belmont on June 3rd in the Grade 3 Westchester, finishing 6th with a poor speed figure. However, that was a 1 1/16. He’s much better at the shorter distances and shows a high-speed rating at 7 furlongs. I also never count out Irad Ortiz Jr. as the Jockey on a NYRA track.

 

Wendell Fong is now in the barn of Natalia Lynch after a claim back in July. His speed figures are poor compared to the field, but this hard knocker type horse has a win at Belmont in May of 2019, going 7 furlongs. Ideally, this is a horse you like at 6 furlongs; he seems to automatically fade at the 5-furlong mark in all his races. Might hang on for a 3rd or 4th here.

 

Arch Cat ships in from the Mid Atlantic Circuit with most of his races at Park racetrack in PA.  Looking at his form, 7 furlongs might be the right distance for this gelding, with 3 wins out of 5 races at 7 furlongs. Seems to be in form with 3 wins out of the last 4 starts. If he stays anywhere near his 10-1 morning line odds, I would jump all over this pick.

 

Picks:

I am going to play around with a $100 total wagering budget on the 3 longer odds horses as follows:

$10 win-#4 Arch Cat

$10 Exacta Box :1, 3, 4

As always, watch the Odds Board and examine the horses in the Paddock before posting final wagers.

Good Luck

Handicapper's Corner: 2020 Alfred G. Vanderbilt Handicap (G1)

Quality field set for Alfred G. Vanderbilt Handicap 

By: Michael Mills, ThoroFan

The Alfred G. Vanderbilt Handicap (Grade 1), 6 furlongs on the main track at Saratoga Racecourse does not have much quantity with just a field of five but definitely has quality. 

Four of the five starters won their last start and have a total of 40 wins between them.  Not sure if other possible starters were afraid of the new shooter to the Graded Stakes game Volatile or intimidated by the old guy seven-year-old gelding Whitmore.  

On paper, all but Lexitonian has a shot to win it.  Picks are for a dry fast track.

1.  Lexitonian, Tyler Gafflione, Jack Sisterson.  Four-year-old colt has found the winner circle in graded company just once back in May 2019.  Comes in off an allowance win at Churchill back in May but would be a surprise.

2.  Whitmore, Joel Rosario, Ron Moquett.  Seven-year-old gelding is a warrior.  Two for three this year racing impressively earlier in the year at Oaklawn.  Been to the Breeders Cup twice before and looking to return this year in the Sprint.  He will be up close in the small field and show his experience and quality down the lane.

3.  Firenze Fire, Irad Ortiz Jr., Kelly J. Breen.  Five-year-old comes in following a victory in the True North Grade 2 the end of last month at Belmont.  Raced in this event last year finishing a distance 4th.  Loads of Grade 1 experience.  Not sure he is the same horse he was last year, be careful.

4.  Volatile, Ricardo Santana Jr., Steven M. Asmussen.  Four-year-old colt is the new shooter to the Graded Stakes racing game.  Lightly raced with just 5 starts (4 wins and a second) he comes in following two wins this spring and racked up 112 Beyer Figure in his last at Churchill.  Pricey fellow when purchased could be starting to live up to expectations.

5.  Mind Control, John R. Velazquez, Gregory D. Sacco.  Four-year-old strung together three wins before throwing in a clunker last month in the Carter at Belmont in the slop.  Two for two at Saratoga but will need to bring his best game to bounce back.

While I am a fan of the old guy Whitmore, I’m projecting Volatile to be too much for this field and hopefully at not too short a price.

1) #4 Volatile (4-5)

2) #2 Whitmore (2-1)

3) #3 Firenze Fire (4-1)

The Play: $50 Win #4

Have a Day……. Mike Mills